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Old 05-24-2018, 08:59 PM
 
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TropicalTidbits has started his 2018 storm videos, one out tonight explaining the current setup and thinking going forward with 90L. https://youtu.be/RAvEP3xYSlk . Basically the current blob of a storm center is over the Yucat√°n Peninsula, its trying to strengthen with storms constantly firing up but high wind shear over the region is blowing any storms off and away to the East. This starts to change as we head into the weekend combined with finding warmer waters to feed off of as moves up towards the central/eastern US Gulf coast will give it a small window to form into a subtropical or tropical storm / named this weekend.

Reguardless if named or not, regardless of exact track, the rain is coming. Flooding will be huge concern in the coming days across the SE US. Updated 7-day poss scattered rain totals map, and some local NWS offices along the Gulf warning of isolated 12+" of rain possible out of this.
2018 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-img_9121.png
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Old 05-25-2018, 04:31 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Latest Euro for Invest91.. Sub 996mb Landfall in Mississippi/Alabama Monday May 28th.
GFS is weaker with the storm and bit East more.


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Old 05-25-2018, 06:10 AM
 
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25May18 745aEDT:
And here's some of 90L's combined other models:
2018 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-img_9134.jpg


NHC still at 90% chance of formation: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov


What does this mean for you?--->
Regardless if this gets a name or not the effects will basically be the same:

Scattered on/off showers to continue across the SE US today as has been the case for days, unrelated to the storm. As the storm in the Gulf approaches it will add to the rainfall across the region. The storm will dump the most mainly near and to the East of the center it appears so far. So scattered 7-day rainfall possible totals from everything:
2018 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-img_9135.png

Helped by tropical moisture flow from the Caribbean:
2018 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-img_9136.png
( MIMIC-TPW2 )

Over 50% of US flood fatalities are vehicle related, turn around don't drown. Flooding is expected in many areas so be aware of what's going on around you.

Rip Current threat will be high along the US Gulf coast beaches next few days, red flags already flying many beaches. So be careful, maybe don't go out for a swim, but if you can stay standing you might get some shallows wave action fun in if the beach is open but be careful...seems every season we loose a few lives even in smaller storms to rip currents. Stay out of water is best advice. Hard to spot rip current sometimes but if you see rough surf and a little calm spot, that calm spot isn't a place to take the small kids because the waves are noticeably smaller...that's likely a rip current pulling water back out.

Tornados, usually small and short lived, will be possible as storm nears and after landfall in the US Gulf coast in a few days, mainly in the Northeast quadrant of the storm.

Power outages & trees falling could become a noticeable impact if we get storm winds around 40mph or higher (looking more and more possible now). Grounds are already saturated, more rain on the way, hours of any winds near 40mph or higher will start to bring trees / powerlines down after hours of wear and tear.

Should I cancel my vacation? I mean, everyone go's on vacation for different reasons...in a few days this will all have passed so its not a total washout. The roof isn't going to blow off any houses. If I had a 2 day golf trip when storm arrives, yes maybe. If I'm going to the beach I'll look for something indoors to do for part of a couple days, complain on social media, maybe see if I can build a sand castle to withstand the waves. To each there own. Use common sense, find the local NWS office on Twitter or have ways to receive alerts for where you're going should they be issued, and don't park your car near the water level where any potential minor tidal flooding could get it (elevation is your friend). Bring some extra phone charger portable battery packs in case you end up playing on your phone a lot if it rains.

Sorry for long post but wanted to put it out there especially if gets a name people tend to focus on the track instead of impacts. Name won't really change that here. Who am I?...just a fan of weather, especially hurricanes.



Edit adding 930a: Some national parks along the Gulf coast are closing out of abundance of caution so plan ahead.

Last edited by Psychoma; 05-25-2018 at 07:29 AM..
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Old 05-25-2018, 08:06 AM
 
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25May18 10aEDT - And Subtropical Storm Alberto is born! NHC will begin advisories at 11aEDT. See Alberto thread here: //www.city-data.com/forum/hurri...25-2018-a.html

Last edited by Psychoma; 05-25-2018 at 08:17 AM..
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Old 05-25-2018, 09:42 AM
 
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Note: Some of the hazards listed above in my previous longer post are outdated now - see Alberto thread - storm expected to be a litrle stronger then original thinking.
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Old 05-27-2018, 11:42 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Accuweather forecast going with more major hurricanes than NOAA but less named storms. Thats 1 way to look at this.

Another way is that NOAA is such a joke. 10-16? Might as well say 1-20.

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/...12932077457408
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Old 05-31-2018, 06:49 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Very important detail instead of just reading headlines or commenting on the trend in recent yrs.

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/st...50234740690944
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Old 05-31-2018, 07:46 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
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Hmm, the latest GFS model runs showing another Gulf tropical system in two weeks. The most recent run shows a Texas landfall.

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Old 06-01-2018, 04:48 AM
 
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June 1rst - Welcome to the official start of the 2018 Atlantic & Central Pacific Hurricane seasons! (East Pacific was May 15)
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Old 06-01-2018, 04:47 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/sta...76008086736896
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