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I lived through Irma so I am already concerned for the 2018 season especially since we had two weeks of temperatures near 90 in February. I wish we could put giant blocks of ice in the Atlantic to lower the water temperature so the hurricanes wouldn't have that warm water fuel they need.
Anyway I closed on the house I'm in right before Irma but I hadn't moved in yet. Fortunately no damage which surprised me since the house is older with original windows (1970) and needed a new roof. The new roof has been put on to the latest hurricane standards and I will be buying a small generator and getting hurricane shutters. I will also be clearing out my 1 car garage by June 1st so I will be able to put my car in there. I will stock up on water & canned goods by May. I will make sure I have enough candles, flashlights and pet food to last at least a week.
With a plan, you're ahead of most people who could be affected by a Hurricane. Bravo. Predictions for number of named storms for the year come out in April (Colorado State) and May (NOAA & others). If we get more towards El Nino conditions in the Pacific later this year that can lower the number of Atlantic storms research suggest (increases wind shear across Caribbean/Atlantic I believe, keeping storms from forming/weak). But as they say, 'it only takes one' as Andrew showed Florida in '92 with just 6 named storms total that year.
Side note since mentioned ice to cool water: Some companies have experimented cooling the ocean temps (hurricane fuel/food) with devices that essentially bring up colder water from below the surface which even just a couple degrees could have a noticeable impact on weakening a hurricane...but likely will never be fully developed/deployed. Would have to have enough, at the specific region a storm was tracking and activate in time the right number to cool a huge swath with approaching rough seas. Not really feasible, and then there's the other side of changing a storm...do farmers in the midwest/southeast who rely on storms for drought releif inland sue because its likely affected them or does a weaker storm spread its winds out causing more damage instead of a cat5 who's winds are in a super small few miles tight area, etc. Many argue better building codes, hazard communication, and shoreline protection/design are better investment. Maybe both, who knows, maybe an army of drones will change things one day.
That's why I like SST anomaly maps along side an actual temperature map. Attached TropicalTidbits image showing SST's in Celsius, I added the white line to show from around that line and south is already warm enough to support Tropical development. But its just one of several factors.
That's why I like SST anomaly maps along side an actual temperature map. Attached TropicalTidbits image showing SST's in Celsius, I added the white line to show from around that line and south is already warm enough to support Tropical development. But its just one of several factors.
Right.. and 70s isnt "cold". But I guess its how you look at it? For tropical environment it is "cold". Not the best for a tropical storm but still can develop. As you said....other factors. Not just water temps
Btw.. thats a large chunk of below 80F there. Wow.
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