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Old 05-27-2018, 08:49 PM
 
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27May18 10pCDT/11pEDT:
Winds 65mph, moving NW 9mph, pressure 991mb

*Changes in this update:
*Tropical Storm Warning along W FL coast cancelled from Anclote River to the Suwannee River
*From NHC's discussion page "it appears that the window of opportunity for Alberto to become tropical has essentially closed." -as was mentioned in tweet link Cambium posted while ago. So we may stay with "Sub"Tropical Alberto.
*Slight nudge to the West in forecast track

Dry air wrapping into the core still as previous post show.

Cone map:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9272.png


Edit adding:
Increased threat of landslides and debris flow southern Appalachian mountains region of NC, SC, and Northeast GA tonight through Thursday per NWSGSP office: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pi...-NOUS42-PNSGSP

Last edited by Psychoma; 05-27-2018 at 09:05 PM..
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Old 05-28-2018, 01:41 AM
 
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28May18 1aCDT/2aEDT:
Winds 65mph, moving NW 9mph, pressure 990mb

-Small brief tornadoes possible today across FL, central & S GA, S SC & SE AL.

-NOAA buoy reported sustained wind of 49mph, gust 61mph

-Prelim earlier top wind gust reports:
--West Palm Beach, FL 44mph
--Longboat Key (just S of Tampa/St Petersburg) 65mph
--St George Island (near Apalachicola) 45mph

Prelim top rain totals:
--Englewood, FL 5.93in
--Islamorada, FL 4.57in
--Deerfield Beach, FL 4in

Rainfall rates of 2in/hr possible in Apalachicola-Tallahassee-Panama City FL region Overnight:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9279.gif

Training storms/rain and flash flooding possible coastal/central SC Overnight:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9278.gif
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Old 05-28-2018, 07:05 AM
 
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28May18 7aCDT/8aEDT:
Winds 65mph, moving N 9mph, pressure 991mb

Landfall later today into the FL Panhandle likely between Apalachicola and Pensacola FL (Remember: landfall is when the very center point / lowest pressure area crosses the beach, the worst weather usually comes before that):

*Changes:
*Storm Surge Watch canceled S of Suwannee River.

Just off from Panama City Beach currently:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_closee.jpg

Alberto looks to be holding its own on satellite:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_0000001.jpg

But if we look under the hood, the dry air is wreaking havoc with structure and taking a toll on precipitation:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_01.jpg

And radar shows that:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_radars.jpg

Storm Surge Watch still up for 2-4ft above normal tide levels but they never moved it to a warning. The Big Bend area still at higher risk due to onshore wind direction piling water up in that corner and shallow coastline compared to other areas:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_ss.jpg
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Old 05-28-2018, 07:44 AM
 
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Even with dry air being pulled in, it's still taping into tropical moisture from the Caribbean, nice plume of that just S of FL too:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_moistf.jpg
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Old 05-28-2018, 08:56 AM
 
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28May18 10aCDT/11aEDT:
Winds 60mph, moving N 8mph, pressure 992mb

A little weaker.

*Changes:
*Storm Surge Watch West of Mexico Beach canceled.
*Tropical Storm Warning AL/FL border and Westward canceled.

Storm center about 50miles S of Panama City FL.

-Heavy rain rates near the center, flooding possible in FL Panhandle, much of AL, and W GA through tonight, continuing rains with flash flood and flood potential into N GA, the Carolina's and TN.

Reminder: over 75% of US Tropical system deaths are from flooding (coastal and inland flooding).

Excessive rainfall outlook:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9289.jpg

Heavy rain potentially developing across parts of NC today:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9290.jpg
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Old 05-28-2018, 11:50 AM
 
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28May18 1pCDT/2pEDT:
Winds 50mph, moving N 8mph, pressure 994mb
Just offshore, continuing to weaken.

Edit adding:
Compared to earlier radar image in the 8a post above looks like shower activity increasing across the Southest US this afternoon now.

Last edited by Psychoma; 05-28-2018 at 12:02 PM..
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Old 05-28-2018, 02:28 PM
 
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Looks like may have made "landfall" somewhere between Panama City Beach and Freeport, FL. 5p Advisory should tell us.

Prelim rain/wind gust reports: http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/disc...s/nfdscc5.html

Appalachia, FL recorded a storm surge of 2.99ft.

Heavy rains on the NW corner of storm center producing 2-3inch/hour rainfall rates could result in 3-6in total. Outer rain band in central GA into E AL could drop 2-4inches. More
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9311.gif

Two killed by falling tree vs car Polk County NC where voluntary evacuations of about 100 homes is in effect due to landslide concerns (hit by heavy rains/landslides last weekend, hasn't dried out yet)
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Old 05-28-2018, 02:48 PM
 
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28May18 4pCDT/5pEDT:
Winds 45mph, moving N 9mph, pressure 994mb

Landfall point Laguna Beach, FL (point of lowest estimated pressure number typically found at very center of storm, worst weather is off to the NW with this system).
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Old 05-28-2018, 07:42 PM
 
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28May18 7pCDT/8pEDT
Winds 40mph, moving N 10mph, pressure 995mb

-Storm Surge Watches all canceled
-Tropical Storm Warning only for Aucilla River to Okaloosa/Walton County FL line (for onshore winds coming across the uninterrupted open waters, but with max winds of storm at 40mph we're barely at limit(39mph+) for keeping them)

The 2 earlier mentioned NC deaths were WYFF crew out of Greenville, SC covering landslides in Polk County, NC just north of Greenville when a tree fell on their vehicle.

Storm center currently somewhere near Opp, AL, with heavy rain West side of storm across central & S AL into part of the FL Panhandle.

Small brief tornadoes possible overnight mainly in AL & GA.

Rip current threat will remain next few days but begin to subside.

Heavy rain will continue near the storm center and in rain bands through the night.
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Old 05-28-2018, 08:37 PM
 
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28May18 10pCDT/11pEDT - Weakens to Depression, winds 35mph, moving N 12mph, pressure 996mb.
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