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Old 05-25-2018, 08:07 AM
 
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25May2018 - 10aEDT US National Hurricane Center (NHC) will begin issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm #Alberto at 11aEDT here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Alberto formed from what was Invest 90L off the Yucatán Peninsula. We'll see what strength they forecast it to be at the 11am update though. Hopefully no surprises. And per experts the formation of May storms has no relation/indication to how the rest of the season will go.

Last edited by Psychoma; 05-25-2018 at 08:18 AM..
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Old 05-25-2018, 08:53 AM
 
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25May18 11aEDT NHC update:
Winds 40mph, moving NNE 6mph, pressure 1005mb. Tropical Storm Watch up for portions of Yucatán Peninsula & Cuba. Additional rain Yucatán & Cuba of 10-15 inches, isolated 25inches.

Tropical Storm Watches & Storm Surge Watches may be issued for US Gulf coast by tonight or sometime Saturday.

Expected to near Western Cuba Saturday morning & US Gulf coast sometime Monday.

Current wind speed forecast:
-11p Friday 40mph
-11a Sat 45mph
-11p Sat 50mph
-11a Sun 60mph
-11a Mon 65mph
-11a Tue 35mph (Inland by then)

Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9138.png

Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9137.png
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Old 05-25-2018, 10:04 AM
 
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25May18 10aCDT/11aEDT "Key Messages" image from NHC:

Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9140.jpg
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Old 05-25-2018, 04:12 PM
 
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25May18 4pCDT/5pEDT update
(Official updates are issued from the NHC at regular intervals of 1,4,7,10 am/pm CDT (2,5,8,11 am/pm EDT) here just below the map: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Winds 40mph, moving E 2mph, pressure 1005mb.

The 'Cone' map (Cone is where storm center could be in time...doesn't tell you anything else):
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_images1245.png


As expected Tropical Storm & Storm Surge Watches issued for portions of the US Gulf Coast. Nothing has changed, these are issued based time of event start. NHC notes in their discussion page these may change to Hurricane Watches if the forecast edges up closer to possible hurricane winds later (hurricane winds are 74mph+), current forecast says 65mph though for now.
-Tropical Storm Watch from Indian Pass, FL to Grand Isle, LA. (means Tropical Storm winds of 39mph+ are possible (not guaranteed though) within 48hours or less...will become a Warning once it's 36hours or less)
-Storm Surge Watch from Horseshoe Beach, FL to mouth of the Mississippi River. (means a Storm Surge(the additional height water rises above normal tide levels) could start within 48hours or less...becomes a Warning once it's 36hours or less. Storm Surges can be a few inches to many feet high, it's highest usually near and to the East of where the center makes landfall, they are NOT a tsunami or a wave but the actual body of water rising with waves on top of that like a really high - high tide and is actually the most dangerous part of a Tropical Storm / Hurricane).

*Zoomable storm surge maps, are issued 30-60minutes after the NHC updates storm stats and takes into account the time of high/low tides and timing of storm arrival once they are begin to be issued...I want to say once warnings are issued but can't recall.
Edit: Interactive Storm Surge map is live! https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...ation#contents

Tropical Storm Watch map:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_image123.png

Storm Surge Watch Map:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_image124.jpg

Impacts:
-Rain Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba 10-15in, isolated 25in.
-Rain FL Keys / S FL 4-8in, isolated 12in.
-Heavy rain will move into US Gulf coast region as storm approaches.
-Saturated grounds and full rivers across the S US could result in flooding.
-Storm Surge 2-4ft along US Gulf Coast in Watch area possible.
-Higher waves and high rip current threat along US Gulf Coast beaches.
-With saturated grounds power outages and trees falling will be a concern. Hours of wear and tear from just around 40mph in saturated ground is enough to cause problems.
-Tornadoes, usually small and short lived, will be possible, mainly as storm outer rain bands start to reach land, and are typically found in the Northeast corner/quadrant of a storm.

Last edited by Psychoma; 05-25-2018 at 04:27 PM.. Reason: I can has Cheeseburger
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Old 05-25-2018, 05:08 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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And we're off. Lets see what kind of season it will be

https://twitter.com/AMSweather/statu...37864640856064
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Old 05-25-2018, 08:47 PM
 
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25May18 10pCDT/11pEDT update

Winds 40mph, moving E 5mph, pressure 1006mb. Full update here: NHC
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Old 05-26-2018, 04:12 AM
 
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Sat 26May18 4aCDT/5aEDT: (quick cheat sheet items in bold text, rest detail)
Winds 40mph, moving NNE 7mph, pressure 1005mb

-Starting its turn, picking up movement speed, as expected.
-Disorganized still, NHC says the 40mph is generous but waiting on aircraft recon to confirm...but its doubtful they'll lower wind speed given confusion to public if they downgrade it then upgrade it back shortly after.
-Storm is battling strong shear (winds blowing across it) as expected which is why it can't gain much strength yet (storms like to be straight and tall over the Low Pressure center/core...when its misaligned its weaker/struggles). This shear gets less and less towards north Gulf of Mexico with a nice calm area just before the coast:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9152.gif
( North Atlantic )

-Storm is battling dry air on its West side, storms prefer moist environments, again this will improve in time.
-Should start to better organize tonight into Sunday
-Should become fully "Tropical" sometime Sunday or so.
-Forecast max winds (max winds usually only around center, disorganized storms this may just be in one rain band/blob off to the side, winds weaker elsewhere):
--Sat 5p 40mph
--Sun 5a 45mph
--Sun 5p 60mph
--Mon 5a 65mph
--Tue 5a 60mph (Near coast)
--Wed 5a 30mph (well inland)

-Cone map (shows only where the storm center could be in time):
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9163.png

-Earliest timing Tropical Storm winds (39mph+) may arrive:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9167.png


-"Most likely" arrival of Tropical Storm force winds (39mph+):
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9166.png


Impacts:
-(See last list above)
Adding:
-Tornadoes also possible today in S FL, FL Keys region.

Gulf of Mexico overall GOES-EAST satellite bands:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE....php?sector=gm

Still my favorite band...GeoColor at night with city lights shown (lights are actually a static image layer added for geo-referencing purposes, and not live power status, from the VIIRS day night band):
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9168.jpg


Edit: adding 7-day possible scattered rain totals map since rain/flooding will likely be the biggest threat with this storm:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-img_9171.png

And feel free anyone to chime in!

Last edited by Psychoma; 05-26-2018 at 05:09 AM..
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Old 05-26-2018, 05:09 AM
 
Location: Deep 13
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Local Biloxi news is all a-tingle with this event.
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Old 05-26-2018, 09:37 AM
 
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Sat 26May18 10aCDT/11aEDT: (quick cheat sheet items in bold text, rest detail)
Winds 40mph, moving N 10mph, pressure 1005mb.

*There is a slight chance Alberto could eek out a minimum Hurricane strength (winds 74mph+) just before landfall later Monday but most models do NOT show this, and forecast still tops it out at 65mph. Time will tell though, but it is a possibility as it will be getting it's act together and better organized fairly quickly just prior to landfall*

*Changes in this update:
-Slight shift Eastward in track, thus watches were extended a little more East.
-Tropical Storm Warning for Dry Tortugas in FL Keys (Winds 39mph+ may be possible Saturday afternoon through overnight).
-Tropical Storm Watch for Boca Grande to Anclote River on West FL coast (Winds 39mph+ may be possible sometime Sunday).
-Tropical Storm winds (39mph+) may reach northern US Gulf coast by Sunday night or sometime Monday.
-Existing Tropical Storm Watch extended East along FL Panhandle to Aucilla River.
-Storm Surge Watch extended East along FL Panhandle to Crystal River, FL.
-Added initial rainfall estimates for US Gulf Coast of: 5-10inches, isolated 15inches for East LA, much of MS, AL, West TN, Western FL Panhandle. Estimates of 3-5inches, isolated 8inches for Southern Appalachian mountains into coastal Southeast US.

Updated 'Cone map':
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_cones.png

Possible waves *well offshore* over open waters, could near 20ft by Monday:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_wave.jpg

Updated Storm Surge Watch map (2-4ft is possible above normal tide levels in the Watch area, and is typically the highest at the center and just east of the storm center at time of landfall):
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_snosd.jpg

Weak system centers can sometimes literally jump to a new spot and apparently that may happen here:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_swewk.jpg

Center may end up towards the AL/FL border for landfall, but constant little tweaks will be made each update is typical:
Atlantic - Alberto forms May 25, 2018-_ppppppp.jpg
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Old 05-26-2018, 10:50 AM
 
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Appears Alberto will "jump"...new/dominate center appears to be moving from SW of Cuba to a new location NW of Cuba. Recon just found this newer circulation has pressure maybe around 998mb. We'll see what the 2pEST update reveals. Center jumping to a new point in a disorganized storm happens from time to time. Not too uncommon and doesn't really effect any expectations from this system.
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