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Old 06-13-2018, 09:56 AM
 
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13Jun18 - 8aPDT/11aEDT Winds 65mph, moving NNW 3mph, pressure 992mb.

Mexico gov has changed Tropical Storm Watch to a Warning (Tropical Storm winds starting poss within 24hours or less, nothing with the storm changed to warrant this, it's based on time to event start so that's why changed ) for Santa Fe to La Paz ( includes Cabo San Lucas).

Storm center expected to reach Baja peninsula late Thursday, outer cloud edges already over S Baja region.

Additional Rain:
SW Mexico: 1-2inches, isolated 4inches
Baja into NW Mexico: 1-3inches, isolated 5inches
Portions of AZ & NM: 1inch+ poss some locations depending where leftover moisture heads.

That's enough for some flash flooding and mudslide concerns these regions

Pacific - Bud forms June 9, 2018-img_0073.png

Pacific - Bud forms June 9, 2018-img_0074.png
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Old 06-13-2018, 07:06 PM
 
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13Jun18 - 5pPDT/8pEDT Winds 50mph, moving NNW 6mph, pressure 998mb.

Storm center about 190miles (305km) SSE of Cabo San Lucas. Tropical storm force winds (39mph+) extend up to 90miles from storm center.

Infrared image (GOESEAST Channel 13 sat image):
Pacific - Bud forms June 9, 2018-img_0119.jpg
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Old 06-14-2018, 03:58 AM
 
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14Jun18 - 2aPDT/5aEDT Winds 45mph, moving NNW 7mph, pressure 1000mb. Barely a Tropical Storm now. Landfall even weaker later today into Baja ("landfall" just means the center, or lowest pressure reading point, crosses land).

Continuing to weaken, should just be a blob of scattered rain within 24-48 hours.

Focus should be on the rainfall across mostly desert areas...flash flood threat, even with much lower rainfall totals as compared to East coast storms, will be high.

Additional possible rain:
-Southern Baja & parts of NW Mexico through Sonora region: 2-4inches, isolated 6in.
-W Mexico(Sinaloa and Durango region): 1-2inches, isolated 3in.
-In US Bud remnants look to head into mostly New Mexico, parts of AZ and up into Colorado. US possible scattered 7-day rain totals:
Pacific - Bud forms June 9, 2018-img_0120.png

On satellite it would appear the main band of whats left of Bud is affecting S Baja now even though the storm center is well offshore still...storm falling apart so not too surprising.
Pacific - Bud forms June 9, 2018-img_0121.jpg

A weather station in Cabo San Lucas recorded a 49mph wind gust.
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Old 06-14-2018, 09:02 AM
 
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14Jun18 - 8aPDT/11aEDT Winds 45mph, moving NNW 7mph, pressure 1000mb.

Main outer band continues rain/wind across S Baja region. Cabo San Lucas reported 45mph sustained winds, gust 61 mph. (Would guess measurement taken near open water where wind unobstructed)

Satellite:
Pacific - Bud forms June 9, 2018-img_0123.jpg

Infrared:
Pacific - Bud forms June 9, 2018-img_0124.jpg

Last edited by Psychoma; 06-14-2018 at 09:20 AM..
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Old 06-14-2018, 06:45 PM
 
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14Jun18 - 5pPDT/8pEDT Winds 45mph, moving NNW 7mph, pressure 1000mb. Center about to come ashore near Cabo San Lucas in S Baja but storm expected to continue to weaken as interacts with land. Main focus is on the rain, not the center/winds at this point, especially as moisture heads into desert areas. Water is the biggest threat by far in tropical systems.
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Old 06-15-2018, 11:01 AM
 
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15Jun18 - 8aPDT/11aEDT - Weakens to a Tropical Depression.
Winds 35mph, moving N 12mph, pressure 1002mb

Center crossed Baja peninsula last night, now over Gulf of California (waterway between Baja peninsula and mainland Mexico). Expected to just be a Low pressure system soon. Then blob of scattered rains will continue into the SW US. Flash flooding biggest threat especially over desert areas. Dry river beds can quickly fill / cover roadways even if no rain present your location. Never cross a flooded roadway - over 50% of US flood deaths are vehicle related!

Several SW US rainfall records look to be broken, even with the relatively small amounts. And Tucson, AZ may end its 106+ days of no rainfall (6th longest streak).

Last edited by Psychoma; 06-15-2018 at 11:16 AM..
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Old 06-15-2018, 04:28 PM
 
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15Jun18 - 2pPDT/5pEDT
Bud is officially a remnant Low and no more advisories will be issued by the NHC, consult local weather sources for further weather information.

The blob of moisture of what used to be Bud will continue onward into the SW US, big flash flood threat.

Archive of all official storm stats / graphics from NHC can be found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/BUD.shtml?
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