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Old 06-15-2018, 11:53 AM
 
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15Jun18 - 11aPDT/2pEDT - Invest 93E became Tropical Depression Four-E, now organized enough to become Tropical Storm Carlotta just S of Mexico. Estimated winds 40mph, moving NE 5mph, pressure 1006mb.

**Note: obtaining a name should NOT change the focus off of heavy flooding rains / mudslides threat**

Tropical Storm Warning (winds of 39mph or higher possible) for Tecpan de Galeana to Lagunas de Chacahua Mexico. Landfall (just when the center(lowest pressure area) crosses land) expected sometime Saturday.

Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 30miles from storm center.

Additional rainfall possible of:
-Guerrero / Oaxaca coasts: 3-6inches, isolated 10in
-Guerrero and Oaxaca inland: 1-2inches, isolated 4in

High surf and rip current threat along the coast.

Official storm stat updates: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Cone map(shows only TS wind field, Tropical Watches/Warnings, and where center of storm could go in time):
Pacific - Carlotta forms June 15, 2018-img_0136.png

Satellite image:
Pacific - Carlotta forms June 15, 2018-img_0137.jpg

Last edited by Psychoma; 06-15-2018 at 12:05 PM..
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Old 06-15-2018, 04:34 PM
 
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15Jun18 4pCDT/5pEDT: Winds 40mph, moving NE 3mph, pressure 1006mb. TS Warning shrunk down to Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua.
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Old 06-16-2018, 06:15 AM
 
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16Jun18 7aCDT/8aEDT: Winds 50mph, stalled/not moving, pressure 1000mb.
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Old 06-16-2018, 08:13 PM
 
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16Jun18 8pCDT/9pEDT: Winds 65mph(100km/h), moving NW 6mph(9km/h), pressure 997mb. Flooding rains and mudslide risk biggest threats.

Radar image NHC shared earlier this evening:
Pacific - Carlotta forms June 15, 2018-img_0189.jpg
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Old 06-17-2018, 06:10 AM
 
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17Jun18 7aCDT/8aEDT: Winds 45mph(75km/h), moving NW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 1002mb. Weakening as proximity to coast line messing with storm core. NHC says should make landfall within 24 hours or less into S Mexico but caution that the models don't even pick up the storm currently given its size and structure falling apart, but not expecting any surprises. Rain threat continues.

Infrared GOESEAST image of cloud tops:
Pacific - Carlotta forms June 15, 2018-test1414141.jpg

Last edited by Psychoma; 06-17-2018 at 07:08 AM..
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Old 06-17-2018, 12:19 PM
 
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17Jun18 1pCDT/2pEDT: Winds 35mph(55km/h), moving NW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 1007mb. Downgraded to a Tropical Depression now.
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Old 06-17-2018, 08:47 PM
 
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17Jun18 10pCDT/11pEDT: Winds 30mph(45km/h), moving WNW 5mph(7km/h), pressure 1007mb.
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Old 06-19-2018, 04:33 AM
 
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18Jun18 10pCDT/11pEDT: Winds 25mph, moving NW 3mph, pressure 1008mb.
Monday evenings advisory was the last on the system from the NHC as it's become just a remnant Low. See local weather services for any further details.

An archive of all past NHC updates/graphics can be found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/CARLOTTA.shtml?
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