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Old 07-06-2018, 02:12 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dspguy View Post
Sort of off-topic...

What times of day is the GFS updated? And the Euro?
All related! I don't remember exactly when they come out unfortunately and daylight savings, which the models don't follow, doesn't help me! I'm sure someone will chime in though. If not soon I'd post same question in the general weather thread but make sure to get time zone for your times.

Don't want to leave you completely empty handed so I believe the Euro(ECMWF) is twice a day around 3am/pmEDT (0z/12z initialized runs (#z = Zulu(UTC+0) time model started running data, data comes out hours later). GFS 4 times a day, initializing at 0z,6z,12z & 18z , every 6hrs, data starts a couple hours before the Euro. There are several products that come out with each run including tropical system storm path main model run and the ensembles, or multiple models, that make that up, and various other products.

Keep in mind models are running on super computers for several hours so the data they give us is based on information several hours old, the models may not initialize (start) with a tropical system in the correct location or correct strength which skews results (not often but does occasionally happen), models "see"/handle things differently and of corse if any bad data was entered into the model then you get bad data out and have to wait several hours for the next run.

Sorry for all that and didn't really answer your question! Just wanted to post what I could to help anyone reading this.
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Old 07-06-2018, 02:38 PM
 
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I see on social media Ryan Maue said the 12z Euro initialized Beryl incorrectly as just an open tropical wave instead of an 80mph hurricane...so that means the afternoon Euro is off the books for Beryl unfortunately. Too small of a storm to catch it correctly.
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Old 07-06-2018, 05:35 PM
 
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6Jul18 5pEDT/AST: Estimated winds 80mph, moving W 15mph, pressure 994mb.

**Note: with Watches/Warnings now issued, this means the NHC will be issuing additional updates, per protocol, at 2 & 8am/pmEDT/AST in additon to the traditional 5 & 11am/pmEDT/AST updates**

Watches/Warnings:
-Hurricane Watch: Dominica
-Tropical Storm Watch: Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St.
-Additional Watches/Warnings possible tonight/Saturday.

Aircraft recon has been scheduled to conduct flights into the storm for more accurate data gathering. Storm has been tracking further South then model guidance has been suggesting. Timeline still suggest center of storm will reach near those islands Sunday into Monday. Earlier guidance suggested the storm would be ripped apart as it approached the Lesser Antilles by shear but now the storm may be near Hurricane strength then start to weaken and become a remnant Low or Tropical wave by the time reaches Hispaniola (Haiti, Dominican Republic). Keep in mind, again, with such a small storm sudden increase/decrease in winds is to be expected. This system could still easily weaken entirely before reaching the islands but such tiny storms are very hard to predict intensity wise and prone to sudden changes. And that uncertainty, but with the increasing possibility of, is the reason why Watches/Warnings were issued. Residents in these areas should prepare for possible storm conditions but know the forecast could change suddenly. Hurricane force winds only go out 10 miles from storm center, Tropical Storm winds a whole 35miles from storm center...VERY small storm.

Cone map:
Atlantic - Beryl forms July 5, 2018-img_1019.png

For those in or with interest in Puerto Rico surrounding area - current advisories show a weakening Tropical storm passing to/near the South sometime Monday. Scattered rain possible but not expecting a hurricane. Conditions are not favorable for further intensification by then. Haiti is very prone to flash flooding. Residents and agencies working there should prepare for the possibility of heavy scattered rains in the region, too soon to know how much, if any, rain will fall though but it doesn't take much to cause problems there.

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-06-2018 at 05:56 PM..
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Old 07-06-2018, 06:01 PM
 
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6Jul18 8pEDT/AST: And after just writing the above text, the 8p advisory is now out: Winds 80mph, moving W 15mph, pressure 994mb. About 925 miles ESE of Lesser Antilles. No changes.
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Old 07-06-2018, 09:04 PM
 
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6Jul18 11pEDT/AST: Winds 80mph, moving W 14mph, pressure 994mb. Holding it at that intensity for now but NHC says that's likely generous given current satellite imagery. No changes. High wind shear lays in wait in Eastern Caribbean that will serve to weaken storm near Lesser Antilles...just don't know what wind speed storm will be then, hence the previous Watches/Warnings. S Leeward Islands, N Winward Islands possible 2-4inches rain (Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, Barbados). N Leeward & S Winward Islands <2inches possible.
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Old 07-07-2018, 04:14 AM
 
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7Jul18 5aEDT/AST: Winds 75mph, moving WNW 14mph, pressure 995mb. May not be a hurricane currently but without aircraft recon, microwave imagery, and ability of tiny storms to jump up/down in intensity quickly it appears they're holding it there for now. About 830 miles ESE of Lesser Antilles. Changes: Tropical Storm Watch added for St. Lucia & Barbados, storm currently predicted to dissipate somewhere between Eastern Caribbean & Hispaniola in a few days but has today (Saturday into early Sunday) to strengthen then conditions start to become less favorable for development.
Atlantic - Beryl forms July 5, 2018-img_1028.png
Atlantic - Beryl forms July 5, 2018-img_1029.png
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Old 07-07-2018, 05:33 AM
 
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7Jul18 730a - adding: recent IR imagery shows flare up but then quickly dies out so its trying but not maintaining any gains, maybe weakening actually. And now dry air on water vapor imagery coming around N, NW & W side of storm will only serve to hinder it. If dry air gets pulled into the storms core then Beryl will quickly weaken considerably. We'll see later today what happens but not looking good for the storm (good for islands though).

Water vapor image(yellow/orange dry air):
Atlantic - Beryl forms July 5, 2018-img_1045.jpg

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-07-2018 at 06:09 AM..
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Old 07-07-2018, 07:32 AM
 
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Small storm that will never be much.
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Old 07-07-2018, 07:38 AM
 
Location: Windsor Ontario/Colchester Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
Small storm that will never be much.
I hope so, I’m heading to Varadero Cuba on the 15th!
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Old 07-07-2018, 07:47 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by North 42 View Post
I hope so, I’m heading to Varadero Cuba on the 15th!
Upper levels around Cuba won't be helping the storm out.
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