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Old 07-05-2018, 12:55 PM
 
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5Jul18 230pEDT - Invest "95L" organized enough to become Tropical Depression "Two" Thursday morning, now has become Tropical Storm "Beryl" in the Atlantic.

Fighting dry/dusty air, mainly to its North coming across the Atlantic from the Saharan desert in N Africa. Wind shear (upper level winds that keep the storm from stacking nicely vertical, and blow the tops of storms off so they can't form) is high in the Caribbean especially near the Lesser Antilles which will serve to weaken the storm considerably when it nears, likely won't survive the trip into the Caribbean but may provide scattered showers here in there into the region but not likely as a named storm.

Official storm stats/updates for the Atlantic basin are issued from the US National Hurricane Center based in Miami, FL at 5 & 11am/pm EDT (they'll add 2 & 8am/pmEDT if any Watches/Warnings are issued):
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
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Old 07-05-2018, 02:39 PM
 
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5Jul18 5pEDT - Tropical Storm quickly gaining strength: estimated winds 50mph, moving W 16mph, pressure 1004mb.

It's super tiny size is allowing sudden intensification which isn't too unexpected for such small storms. We've seen it before with storms trying to cross the Atlantic with nearby Saharan dust layer trying to hender it. Tight little ball allows for more rapid strengthening and protects it to some degree from the dusty air. There's a chance we could see a Hurricane out of this as well Friday into Saturday.

But wind shear lays in wait jusy East of the Lesser Antilles...doesn't matter how strong it becomes...wind shear plays no favorites and will weaken the storm considerably as it approaches Sunday.

Atlantic - Beryl forms July 5, 2018-img_0911.png

Strong shear in red:
Atlantic - Beryl forms July 5, 2018-img_0909.gif

Sat images:
Atlantic - Beryl forms July 5, 2018-img_0916.jpg
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Old 07-05-2018, 02:42 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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That was quick.... but only on B still?

https://twitter.com/jnelsonWJCL/stat...71833429393408
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Old 07-05-2018, 05:11 PM
 
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Well...the nature of super tiny storms....quickly up or down...IR imagery shows how quickly it popped up/strengthened earlier today, now quickly dissipating this evening (7pEDT). Will be interesting to see if just restructuring after quick jump up or if it's something else. We shall see as evening go on.
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Old 07-05-2018, 06:10 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Well...the nature of super tiny storms....quickly up or down...IR imagery shows how quickly it popped up/strengthened earlier today, now quickly dissipating this evening (7pEDT). Will be interesting to see if just restructuring after quick jump up or if it's something else. We shall see as evening go on.
Well never mind...another flare up on IR imagery. I guess I'll stop watching frame by frame and wait for NHC to update lol!
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Old 07-05-2018, 09:03 PM
 
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5Jul18 11pEDT - Winds 65mph, moving W 14mph, pressure 999mb.

Again, very tiny storms like this can fluctuate rapidly up or down in wind speed. So don't be alarmed or panic if it suddenly becomes a Hurricane, this is normal behavior for small storms. And the story is unchanged: conditions favorable for development through Saturday, then sometime Sunday starts interacting with very high wind shear that should rip it apart quickly. Tropical systems may be powerful at times but they are totally at the mercy of other weather systems around them.

For now the storm isn't pulling in dry / dusty air to its North and NorthWest but if it does start to draw that in then storm would likely start to struggle sooner.

Due to the timing of this weakening onset it is probable that the NHC may issue Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings this weekend for portions of the Lesser Antilles but nothing posted yet (its a timed thing before issuing anyways so wouldn't be issued this far out in time).
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Old 07-06-2018, 05:17 AM
 
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6Jul18 5aEDT - Winds 75mph, moving W 14mph, pressure 995mb. Officially our first Hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic basin season. Was likely stronger overnight but without aircraft recon we'll never know. Wish they would borrow the Global Hawk drone again they've put to work here and there for storms way out there.

No changes, has potential to become stronger (with sudden swings in wind speed up or down) through Saturday then starts to weaken by sometime Sunday. Reguardless, residents/visitors to the Lesser Antilles region should prepare for scattered heavy rains and gusty wind potential Sunday into Monday even if the storm does fall apart by then. Chance it could still be a weakening Tropical Storm at that point as well.

Likely the overnight IR sat image of peak intensity thus far:
Atlantic - Beryl forms July 5, 2018-img_0960.jpg

And current imagery now:
Atlantic - Beryl forms July 5, 2018-img_0961.jpg

Its sssooooo tiny!!
Atlantic - Beryl forms July 5, 2018-img_0958.jpg

Atlantic - Beryl forms July 5, 2018-img_0959.jpg

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-06-2018 at 05:32 AM..
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Old 07-06-2018, 05:23 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Not sure if this is Beryl but the GFS is at it again. LOL


GFS has a Hurricane off the coast next week. lol.
Canadian has a weaker storm and well off shore
Euro is even further out to sea


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Old 07-06-2018, 05:55 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Not sure if this is Beryl but the GFS is at it again. LOL


GFS has a Hurricane off the coast next week. lol.
Canadian has a weaker storm and well off shore
Euro is even further out to sea

This is actually our system just off the Carolina coast that was originally expected to be pushed out by front Sunday but now may get missed and stall off the east coast next week...will post update in 2018 hurricane season thread now.
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Old 07-06-2018, 06:23 AM
 
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Sort of off-topic...

What times of day is the GFS updated? And the Euro?
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