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Old 07-09-2018, 07:34 PM
 
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9Jul18 9pEDT/AST - Chris is stationary near NOAA buoy 41002 (yellow dot near storm on map below) which is showing an impressive drop in sea surface temperature today. Down from 82.5deg F to 77.5F (28C-25C) in 4 days, most of that today. Every degree matters for a tropical system. Storms feed off sea surface temps but its cooler below. This "upwelling" from sitting in the same spot too long stirs up the water enough to bring colder water to the surface. This starts to cut off the storms fuel and usually induces weakening or at least limits higher potential. The warm waters of the Gulf Stream current nearby have been able to offset this earlier while Chris just sits and spins until now it appears.

So, what does this mean for Chris? Means potentially Chris is reaching a peak until it starts to move and find warmer waters. But we don't have that many data points to go off of on what the water temps are near the storm or how large that cold pocket near buoy is and there are other aspects at play here with its strength (other weather systems/features nearby, dry air, lite wind shear, etc). We'll see what it does Tuesday.

Buoy info: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41002

Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-img_1319.png
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-img_1318.png
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Old 07-10-2018, 03:15 AM
 
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10Jul18 5aEDT/AST - Winds 70mph(recon flight only measured 58mph, but given improved structure on satellite imagery and falling pressure the storm is held at 70), moving NE 2mph(finally!), pressure 993mb. If not for recon then likely would have already been classified as Hurricane.

Chris looking healthier compared to this time yesterday, now with more complete storms around a large 25+mile diameter eye, eye open on the East side still though. Hurricane very soon. With movement it can gradually traverse warmer waters and has today (Tuesday) & part of Wednesday to strengthen before reaching cold waters of the N Atlantic as it also interacts with front pushing it out.

Storm center about 200miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, NC, Tropical Storm winds (39mph+) extend up to 70miles from the center.

Storm looks to pass Nova Scotia to the S but may directly effect SE Newfoundland this week as it weakens.

Cone map:
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-img_1326.png

Radar can clearly see well developed eye:
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-img_1330.png

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-10-2018 at 03:23 AM..
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Old 07-10-2018, 04:23 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Tropical Storm Chris to become a Cat 1 but no threat to land. Loop last 4 hrs this morning. 2:15-6:15am July 10, 2018

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Old 07-10-2018, 09:04 AM
 
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10Jul18 11aEDT/AST - Winds 70mph, moving NE 9mph, pressure 993mb. Next aircraft recon will investigate storm this afternoon to see if we have a hurricane yet.
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Old 07-10-2018, 12:30 PM
 
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10Jul18 225pEDT/AST - aircraft reconnaissance currently flying through Chris just measured *preliminary* 983.9mb & winds near 85mph, that would easily make it a Cat1 hurricane. Data is under review though, so preliminary results. Follow along in near real time here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-img_1372.png
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-img_1371.png

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-10-2018 at 12:41 PM..
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Old 07-10-2018, 02:57 PM
 
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10Jul18 5pEDT/AST - Second recon pass through the eye wall confirms Cat1 Hurricane strength surface winds currently and continued pressure drop. Storm to continue strengthening as it heads out to sea, on its way to Cat2 but then hits colder waters and weakens. Winds 85mph, moving NE 10mph, pressure 980mb (13mb pressure drop in just 6hrs).
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Old 07-10-2018, 03:47 PM
 
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Just posting some evening imagery:
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-1.jpg
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-11.jpg
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-01.jpg
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Old 07-10-2018, 05:24 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Its got that look.

https://twitter.com/Jackson_Dill/sta...70986308497408
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Old 07-10-2018, 05:50 PM
 
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I hate systems to my northeast as it just drys my area out with sinking air to the west and dry air aloft.
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Old 07-10-2018, 05:53 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Pretty good exhaust and outflow but not for long. Once it gets caught up in the upper levels it will fly out to sea.
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