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Old 07-08-2018, 03:43 AM
 
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8Jul18 5aEDT/AST - Tropical Depression 3 (formally Invest "96L") has organized enough to become Tropical Storm "Chris" off the NC coast. Winds 40mph, not moving, pressure 1010mb.

Aircraft recon overnight found winds SE side of storm center at 39+mph which makes it strong enough to warrant Tropical Storm status. Not much organization overnight.

Expected to slowly strengthen as it sits/meanders next few days over warm waters via the Gulf Stream current just offshore. Still not the best organized. Could possibly become a Hurricane early this coming week as it pushes off towards the northeast out to sea if stays close enough to the warm current, then weaken as it quickly races off. Could affect Nova Scotia & Newfoundland as a weakening storm though where residents should monitor the storm.

Cold front that sends it off away from NC expected Tuesday but timing is "highly uncertain" according to the NHC which will determine what path it takes out and when.

With Tropical Storm force winds (39mph+) currently expected to stay offshore, no watches/warnings have been issued. Wouldn't be too surprised if part of the NC Outer Banks see TS Watch/Warning at some point but wouldn't be alarmed by it.

Due to pressure gradient between Low pressure TS Chris and High Pressure system (those big blue "H" on weather maps!), breezy/gusty conditions may be felt over larger area of coastal NC region then would otherwise be seen with similar system offshore.

Threats to land currently include: high rip current threat, especially along NC and VA coast which will expand up the US East coast next few days (rip currents exist even on nice sunny days...they don't care if stormy or not, so they will be there no matter where storm go's), minor higher tidal activity with continuous onshore winds pushing water in especially NC & VA with minor occasional over-wash possible here or there NC, scattered showers mainly near the NC coast.

(Rip current is water returning to offshore after waves push in, it can be powerful enough to keep even the best swimmers from swimming back to shore. If caught in one and start to pull away from shore, don't fight it, you'll tire and possibly drown, instead swim parallel to shore as rip currents aren't too wide typically then try to swim back at an angle towards the shore line. Rip currents are almost always near piers and man made erosion controls that stick into the water and gaps in sand bars, but also here and there along beaches during higher wave action, many times hard to spot. A smaller calmer area between higher waves at the shoreline is likely a rip current as well so it's NOT the 'nice little calm spot for the kids': don't be fooled). Here's short video where green die used to show a rip current: http://youtu.be/RJ4hcaJ91TY ).

Official updates for the Atlantic basin are issued by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) based out of Miami, FL. Updates are issued at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/AST (if Watches/Warnings issued then updates also pushed out at 2 & 8am/pmEDT/AST) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Cone map:
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-img_1229.png

7-day possible rain totals (not all from storm, just showing for coastal NC impacts):
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-img_1230.png

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-08-2018 at 04:13 AM..
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Old 07-08-2018, 01:44 PM
 
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8Jul18 11aEDT/AST - Winds 45mph (confirmed at 46mph in aircraft recon flight earlier), stationary movement, pressure 1006mb. Slowly but steadily organizing/strengthening over warm waters. Storm center currently 160 miles S of Cape Hatteras, NC and Tropical Storm force winds (39mph+) only extend up to 60miles from storm center, mainly to the Southeast.

Another aircraft recon mission is flying through TS Chris currently (330pm at time of this writing), looks like measured winds near 50mph well Southeast of the storm center so we may see a bump up at the 5pm advisory and continued strengthening trend, even faster, as storm becomes more well organized tonight through Wednesday.

Here's an interesting science piece behind what's steering it, even mentioning rapid intensification possibility:
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1016040015799828481

Looks like newer Euro even brings it down to 960mb pressure possibly as heads out to sea, but time will tell, not seeing anything bring it back to the US coast though at this time.

330pEDT imagery:
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-_chrisclouds.jpg

Infrared:
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-_chrisinfradre.jpg

Radar:
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-_chrisradar.jpg
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Old 07-08-2018, 02:55 PM
 
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8Jul18 5pEDT/AST - Winds 50mph, stationary movement, pressure 1008mb.

Recon shows center may have jumped about 20 miles ESE to under the more convective part of storm (happens here and there with weaker systems like we saw with Alberto earlier this season). Tropical systems like to be nicely stacked from ocean floor to cloud top vertically, so this will help align and keep improving upon ability to strengthen and better organize.

No real changes otherwise. If you have 9min take an in depth look at video from TropicalTidbits explaining the current state of Chris (as of 330pEDT Sunday afternoon) and what may steer it later this week (easy to understand with pics and drawing on screen for you!) I'd HIGHLY recommend it: https://youtu.be/cRvWXqOWI4s

Updated cone map:
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-_caonemap-chris-pm.jpg
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Old 07-08-2018, 04:30 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Spin & a Miss. Will prevent a heat surge which is great.
And all that tropical latent heat will go to the North Atlantic. Dare I say Negative NAO?

https://twitter.com/weathernetwork/s...16521662025730
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Old 07-08-2018, 09:24 PM
 
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8Jul18 11pEDT/AST - Winds 60mph, barely drifting ESE 2mph, pressure 1005mb. Waited for latest aircraft recon pass through storm center to post this, but no major changes were discovered. Current recon mission continuing, next recon flight took off from near Biloxi, MS while ago headed for Chris (follow along in near real-time here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ ).

Storm center located about 195 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, NC. TS winds(39+mph) extend out up to 70miles from center. NHC calling for Hurricane sometime Monday, continued strengthening through Tuesday or Wednesday but should start moving away from the coast finally late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Current air recon this evening:
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-__recon1.jpg

Updated cone map:
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-___map2.jpg
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Old 07-09-2018, 04:32 AM
 
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9Jul18 5aEDT/AST - Winds 60mph, drifting S about 1mph, pressure 999mb.

Throughout the night Chris hasn't looked well on satellite imagery opening up, NHC saying dry air getting into the system disrupting it but the structure is still holding for now. In fact overnight aircraft reconnaissance flight shows the pressure continues to steadily drop down to 999mb. This is why I mention pressure...typically it moves then winds follow, so lower the pressure the higher the winds become shortly thereafter. So this tells us despite the disorganized appearance its gearing up to continue intensifying. Another recon flight entering the storm now, this will tell us later this morning how the storm is doing.

Storm about 200 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, NC.

First sunrise imagery:
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-____daylight1.jpg

Infrared showing cloud temps:
Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-_____ir1.jpg
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Old 07-09-2018, 04:40 AM
 
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It will get caught up in the upper levels and race away. Dried my area out in FL as any system in that area drags down dry air in FL.
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Old 07-09-2018, 10:00 AM
 
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9Jul18 11aEDT/AST - Winds 60mph(aircraft recon measured 59mph earlier), stationary movement, pressure holding at 999mb. Storm basically on pause at the moment. NHC says dry air at the mid-level worked its way into the storms core (center), storms don't like that. Slow steady strengthening expected to resume this evening, hurricane likely Tuesday now.
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Old 07-09-2018, 01:59 PM
 
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9Jul18 345pEDT/AST - recon flight finding slightly stronger Chris...flight level winds 80+mph (winds higher with elevation, but storms are categorized by and storm winds given are always surface level wind speeds), which would be about 65-70mph estimated winds near surface (reading under review).

Atlantic - Chris forms July 8, 2018-img_1301.png
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Old 07-09-2018, 02:56 PM
 
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9Jul18 5pEDT/AST - Winds 70mph, stationary movement, pressure 996mb.
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