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Old 08-06-2018, 10:20 AM
 
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6Aug18 5aHST/8aPDT/11aEDT - Winds 145mph(230km/h) sustained, higher gust, moving W 15mph(24km/h), pressure 941mb. Strong Cat4 Hurricane. Now expected to pass just S of Hawaii as a Cat2 or Cat3. Large swells for surfers!

Hurricane force winds (74mph+) extend up to 30miles(45km) from storm center, Tropical Storm winds (39-73mph) extend up to 100miles(155km). Strongest winds are always around the eye/center and less as you head away from the center.

Reconnaissance flights will continue around Hector today. Dry air nearing storm and slightly cooler waters ahead should slowly begin weakening it within next 24hours, steady weakening thereafter.

Reminder- NHC Miami office has transferred official updates to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center - all updates come from there now: Hector Products

Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-img_2143.png

Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-img_2144.jpg

Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-img_2145.jpg

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-06-2018 at 10:37 AM..
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Old 08-06-2018, 01:17 PM
 
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Airforce and NOAA now conducting regular reconnaissance flights in/around Hector. You can view these in near real time here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

And first actual pass through the eye just a little while ago: (you're looking at the storm data from the side, ocean surface along bottom of charts, cloud tops top of charts, wind speeds rising to a peak then sudden drop to near 0mph then back up to another instant peak and slowly less afterwards is the eye of the storm where strongest winds are):
*Note: values are still being reviewed for accuracy
Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-img_2147.png
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Old 08-06-2018, 08:19 PM
 
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6Aug18 2pHST/5pPDT/8pEDT - Winds 155mph(250km/h) sustained, higher gust, moving W 16mph(26km/h), pressure 936mb. Strong Cat4 Hurricane. US Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance plane flew through the eye earlier and measured winds. Plane only made one pass due to mechanical problems. Additional flights scheduled for later tonight.

Tropical Storm Watch issued for Big Island / Hawai'i Island / Hawaii County (Tropical Storm winds (39mph+) possible within 48hours). Hurricane force winds expected to stay offshore. Low to medium Tropical Storm winds currently possible but overall the compact nature of a strong storm means won't be as many affects unless storm comes closer.


NOTE: These values will go up/down depending on storms final track:


Probability of winds 39mph:
Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-prob1.jpg




Probability of winds 58mph:
Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-prob2.jpg

Hurricane force winds (74mph+) extend out 35miles(55km) from storm center. Good thing about intense hurricanes is those strong winds are only in a very small area around the center. Much better the further you get from there.

Steady weakening trend expected to start soon. Stronger ridge to the storms North expected to push it Westward thereby missing a direct impact to Hawaii. Storm track will still be close for some potential impacts. Slight wobble to the north side of possible track would bring more impacts to the islands.


Cone map (Shows: Current storm wind field at storm center(orange: winds 39mph+, red: 74mph+), Classification (Black/white dots with letters: "D" = Depression, "S" = Tropical Storm, "H" = Cat1 or Cat2 Hurricane, "M" = Major Hurricane (Cat3+)), any coastal tropical Watches/Warnings, and the "cone" is where the center of the storm could be over time (it's NOT the size of the storm), effects of the storm can be felt outside this area):


Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-h1.jpg
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Old 08-07-2018, 12:21 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Hector is a beast. Only 10 other cyclones since 1950 passed within 150 miles of Hawaii.

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/st...01171510980609
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Old 08-07-2018, 04:45 AM
 
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7Aug18 2aPDT/5aEDT(6Aug18 11pHST) - Winds 145mph(230km/h) sustained, higher gust, moving W 16mph(26km/h), pressure 938mb. Starting its expected slow weakening trend. May or may not pass close enough to the Big Island for showers this week, and as storms weaken they will sometimes spread out some, uncurl from the tight tiny ball. East facing mountains would typically be most susceptible to any rains as they can ring out more water as storm clouds lift up and over, again if any rain comes at all. Waves 15-20ft could arrive by late Tuesday into Wednesday East facing beaches.
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Old 08-07-2018, 09:37 AM
 
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7Aug18 5aHST/8aPDT/11aEDT - Winds 130mph(215km/h), moving W 16mph(26km/h), pressure 947mb. Reconnaissance aircraft flying regularly in/around storm. 540miles(870km ESE Hilo, Hawaii; 750miles(1210km) ESE Honolulu.
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Old 08-08-2018, 04:22 AM
 
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8Aug18 2aPDT/5aEDT(7Aug18 11pHST) - Winds 125mph(205km/h), moving W 16mph(26km/h), pressure 956mb. 290miles(470km SE Hilo, Hawaii; 500miles(800km) SE Honolulu.

Hurricane Watch for Hawaii County changed to Tropical Storm Warning (warning doesn't mean something changed, just means closer to event start as tropical watches/warnings are time based issuance). The TS Warning means winds of 39mph or higher possible. Hurricane force winds (74mph+) extend 40miles(65km) from storm center, TS Winds (39mph+) extend up to 115miles(185km). Large waves forecast along SW and E facing shores Big Island and E Maui.

Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-h1.jpg
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Old 08-08-2018, 10:45 AM
 
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8Aug18 645aHST/945aPDT/1245pEDT - Hector's eye/center now showing up on Hawaii radar:

Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-capture.jpg

The core winds are only in that tight ball around the center. Much less elsewhere.
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Old 08-08-2018, 07:16 PM
 
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Wednesday evening: threat for Hawaii has passed, all tropical Watches/Warnings dropped. Storm passing off South of the islands. Large swells will continue for the surfers though.
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Old 08-08-2018, 09:18 PM
 
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8Aug18 5pHST/8pPDT/11pEDT - Winds 115mph(185km/h), moving W 16mph(26km/h), pressure 959mb. SE Big Island reported wave heights near 20ft today. Ridge to the North of Hector keeping it going westward keeping islands safe, storm will start to turn up around this ridge over the next few days to WNW and likely NW eventually far out to sea. Hurricanes can be a beast sometimes, but they are steered around by other weather patterns.

Future N Pacific storm in some other form for Alaska perhaps?
Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-h1.jpg
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