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Old 08-01-2018, 04:50 AM
 
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1Aug18 2aPDT/5aEDT - Tropical Depression 10E becomes Tropical Storm Hector well off the W Mexico coast on Tuesday evening 31July18. As of 2aPDT/5aEDT estimated winds 40mph (65km/h), moving WNW 15mph (24km/h), pressure 1006mb. Expected to steadily intensify, maybe to Cat2 or Cat3 intensity eventually.

No threat to the mainland, but some models do bring Hector near Hawaii later next week.

Official updates for Eastern North Pacific basin storms comes from the US National Hurricane Center based in Miami, FL. Updates are issued at 2 & 8am/pm PDT (5 & 11am/pm EDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Once the storm eventually crosses into the Central Pacific then updates will be transferred to here: Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu, Hawai`i
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Old 08-01-2018, 08:44 PM
 
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1Aug18 8pPDT/11pEDT estimated winds 60mph (95km/h), moving W 12mph (19km/h), pressure 1000mb.
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Old 08-02-2018, 09:58 AM
 
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2Aug18 8aPDT/11aEDT - Winds 85mph (140km/h), moving W 14mph (22km/h), pressure 987mb. Cat1 hurricane, on its way to Cat3.

(That's Hawaii in top left corner of map under "20N" text)
Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-img_1891.png
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Old 08-02-2018, 04:33 PM
 
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2Aug18 11aHST/2pPDT/5pEDT - Winds 110mph (175km/h), moving W 14mph (22km/h), pressure 973mb. Strong Cat2 -> Cat3 shortly. NHC discussion on intensity guidance states "Obviously this is a low confidence forecast" though. You can see this uncertainty in intensity models, all over the place:
Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-img_1901.png


NHC says subtropical ridge provides high confidence in storm track next 3-days (through Sunday), but break down in that stearing mechanism and potential approaching trough next week is raising questions on how close Hector will get to Hawaii. NHC official track is kept just South of model guidance for now (small black numbers are hours from now, divide by 24 to get number of days from now):
Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-img_1900.png

Eye only about 11.5miles in diameter so VERY small storm. Storm has rapidly intensified 58mph in just 24hrs.
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Old 08-03-2018, 11:10 PM
 
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3Aug18 5pHST/8pPDT/11pEDT - Winds 120mph (195km/h), moving W 12mph (19km/h), pressure 967mb. Cat3 hurricane now. 1,640 miles E of Hilo, Hawaii. Hurricane force winds (74mph+) only extend up to 15miles(30km) out from the center, Tropical Storm force (39-73mph) extend up to 70miles(110km) from center. Microwave imagery shows ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) underway which should hold intensity during this several hour to day long process (stronger storms do this regularly). Conditions favorable for some additional strengthening into Monday, then storm may start to gradually weaken with dryer air in the region and slightly cooler waters to feed off of. Residents & vacationers should continue to monitor storm, direct impacts are still possible but surfers rejoice! Majority of model guidance keeps storm South of Hawaii next week but constant slight wobbles in movement and timing of an approaching trough keep models shifting a little North & South (not to mention the huge data void of the vast Pacific).

Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-img_1923.png

Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-img_1924.png
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Old 08-04-2018, 03:07 PM
 
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4Aug18 11aHST/2pPDT/5pEDT - Winds 125mph (205km/h), moving W 12mph (19km/h), pressure 957mb. Center of forecast track (could go north or south of that) would be very similar to hurricane Estelle in 1986 which brought no major damage to Hawaii but did cause 2 deaths, $2mln damage, large waves 10-20ft to East facing beaches on Big Island, some beach front homes damaged/destroyed, 40-50mph winds in open areas to Big Island, light rain but moisture later spread up associated with Estelle after storm passed and dumped 5-10inches rain some locations (read more here: The 1986 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season )

Here are other Hurricanes that have passed within 150 miles of Hawaii:
Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-img_1974.png

Cone map(remember the cone is where the center of storm may travel in time not the size, the black circle with "M" means Cat3 or higher, "H" means hurricane of Cat1 or Cat2 strength):
Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-img_1975.png

Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to start closer monitoring of Hector starting later Sunday which will aid in forecast track and strength reliability.

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-04-2018 at 03:22 PM..
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Old 08-04-2018, 08:41 PM
 
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4Aug18 5pHST/8pPDT/11pEDT - Winds 130mph (215km/h), moving W 12mph (19km/h), pressure 953mb. Cat4 Hurricane.
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Old 08-05-2018, 06:32 AM
 
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5Aug18 2aPDT/5aEDT (11pHST 4Aug18)- Winds 125mph (205km/h), moving W 12mph (19km/h), pressure 957mb. Back down to Cat3 Hurricane. May have peaked. Has until sometime Monday for favorable conditions then slowly/steadily weakens.


Here's yesterday's sunset over Hector (about to leave GOESeast(GOES16) field of view around the globe):
Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-sent.jpg
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Old 08-05-2018, 02:59 PM
 
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5Aug18 11aHST/2pPDT/5pEDT - Winds 130mph (215km/h), moving W 14mph (22km/h), pressure 952mb. Back to Cat4 Hurricane.

Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-hector5p-852018.jpg
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Old 08-05-2018, 09:28 PM
 
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5Aug18 5pHST/8pPDT/11pEDT - Winds 140mph(220km/h) sustained, moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 947mb. Cat4 Hurricane. Expected to turn a little more WNW then back to W over the next few days. NHC forecast keeps Hector strong into Monday, then gradual weakening trend overall.

Hector is crossing into the Central Pacific. Updates will now be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center starting 11pHST(2aPDT/5aEDT)here: Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu, Hawai`i


Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-h1.jpg


Pacific - Hector forms July 31, 2018-h2.jpg
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