U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 08-05-2018, 09:46 PM
 
4,264 posts, read 2,157,223 times
Reputation: 1576

Advertisements

5Aug18 8pPDT/11pEDT: Invest 95E became Tropical Depression Twelve-E (12E) has organized enough to become Tropical Storm John this evening. Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving NW 8mph(13m/h), pressure 1004mb. Tropical Storm force winds (39mph+) extend outward up to 45miles(75km) from storm center. Storm located about 310miles(500km) SSW of Manzanillo Mexico.

Overall expected to move NW. Nearby TS Ileana may be squeezed out of the picture by John (systems don't like being near each other). This complicates the predictions for John but NHC says rapid intensification very possible, likely hurricane in short order. Colder waters closer to the tip of Baja expected to steadily weaken storm thereafter.


Direct impacts to Socorro Island area likely.


Official updates for Eastern North Pacific basin storms comes from the US National Hurricane Center based in Miami, FL. Updates are issued at 2 & 8am/pmPDT (5 & 11am/pmEDT) (If Watches/Warnings issued then updates are also added at 5 & 11am/pmPDT(2 & 8am/pmEDT)) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Cone map (Shows: Current storm wind field at storm center(orange: winds 39mph+, red: 74mph+), Classification (Black/white dots with letters: "D" = Depression, "S" = Tropical Storm, "H" = Cat1 or Cat2 Hurricane, "M" = Major Hurricane (Cat3+)), any coastal tropical Watches/Warnings, and the "cone" is where the center of the storm could be over time (it's NOT the size of the storm), effects of the storm can be felt outside this area):
Pacific - John forms August 5, 2018-john.jpg

Sat imagery (sources: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/ and https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php )
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 08-06-2018, 09:54 AM
 
4,264 posts, read 2,157,223 times
Reputation: 1576
6Aug18 8aPDT/11aEDT - Winds 70mph(110km/h), moving WNW 8mph(13m/h), pressure 993mb. Hurricane shortly.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-06-2018, 07:48 PM
 
4,264 posts, read 2,157,223 times
Reputation: 1576
6Aug18 2pPDT/5pEDT - Winds 75mph(120km/h), moving NW 8mph(13m/h), pressure 990mb. Cat1 Hurricane now. NHC going with Cat3 24-36hours from now, maybe a run at Cat4, then quickly weakens once hits colder waters just West of S Baja tip.


Direct impacts to Socorro Island. Southern tip of Baja may be affected by outer bands.



Pacific - John forms August 5, 2018-j1.jpg


Pacific - John forms August 5, 2018-j2.jpg
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-07-2018, 04:51 AM
 
4,264 posts, read 2,157,223 times
Reputation: 1576
7aug18 2aPDT/5aEDT - Winds 90mph(150km/h), moving NW 9mph(15km/h), pressure 977mb.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-07-2018, 09:29 AM
 
4,264 posts, read 2,157,223 times
Reputation: 1576
7Aug18 8aPDT/11aEDT - Winds 105mph(165km/h), moving NW 9mph(15km/h), pressure 969mb. Has now absorbed Tropical Storm Ileana.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-08-2018, 04:29 AM
 
4,264 posts, read 2,157,223 times
Reputation: 1576
8Aug18 2aPDT/5aEDT - Winds 100mph(155km/h), moving NNW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 972mb. Rainfall of 1-2in S Baja, isolated 3in. Eye/center passed right beside Socorro Island, NHC says highest sustained wind was 52mph (readings taken every 15min though), gust 81mph. NHC has lowered wind forecast as John enters more unfavorable conditions ahead, out to sea.

Pacific - John forms August 5, 2018-j1.jpg
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-08-2018, 09:38 PM
 
4,264 posts, read 2,157,223 times
Reputation: 1576
8Aug18 8pPDT/11pEDT - Winds 80mph(130km/h), moving NW 16mph(26km/h), pressure 983mb. Continues weakening trend crossing into colder waters and drier air, may loose Tropical characteristics by this weekend.

Rip current threat and larger swells spreading up the W coast of Baja and expected to reach So Cal by later Thursday. If caught in a rip current swim parallel to shore to escape it and swim at an angle back to shore, they can go out pretty far but usually aren't that wide, typically found near piers, jetties, man made structures sticking into the water, and can visually be seen when there's smaller calmer spots along the beach while other areas have larger waves crashing (don't let the 'calm' spot for the kids fool you) but can sometimes be hard to spot.

Some models have John and Kristy nearing each other in a few days, although both will be fairly week with cold waters ahead, if they survive. Typically they'll either destroy each other, one will absorb the other (as John did with Ileana earlier), or they'll dance around each other ('Fujiwhara' effect). But being both storms weak and may have lost all tropical characteristics by then we'll see what happens.
Pacific - John forms August 5, 2018-kj.jpg

Steering patterns may break down with the remnants of John in a few days, allowing what's left to overall drift around by next week.
Pacific - John forms August 5, 2018-j1.jpg

Some models have it's remnants heading towards California, others elsewhere = high uncertainty in forecast for next week:
Pacific - John forms August 5, 2018-j2.jpg
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-10-2018, 07:27 PM
 
4,264 posts, read 2,157,223 times
Reputation: 1576
10Aug18 8aPDT/11aEDT - John has weakened to a remnant Low, no more advisories will be issued. An archive of previous advisories from the NHC can be found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/JOHN.shtml?

Swells from when John was a stronger system may continue to effect CA and Baja coast. John has lost its convection so wherever remnants end up may not see any moisture unfortunately.


Pacific - John forms August 5, 2018-j1.jpg

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-10-2018 at 07:45 PM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top