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Old 08-22-2018, 04:51 AM
 
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22Aug18 2aPDT/5aEDT(21Aug18 11pHST): Winds 160mph(260km/h), moving WNW 9mph(15km/h), pressure 930mb. Finally bumped up to Cat5. Pressure holding steady so likely has peaked on intensity but wouldn't be too surprised if breifly bumped up to 170mph at some point Wednesday since aircraft recon measured 168mph winds in the NE quadrant (the stronggest part of a hurricane is this top right corner typically). But steady weakening expected to start sometime Wednesday as well.

Hurricane force winds(74mph+) only go out 40mph(65km) from storm center, Tropical Storm force winds (39-73mph) go out up to 140miles(220km) from center/eye. This is the "good" thing about a Cat4/5 is those destructive winds are in a tiny little ball around the eye and not outside that. But as storm weakens later this week on approach to Hawaii those winds start to spread out as they come down in speed (like the ice skater twirling in place analogy - fast arms in, slow when arms come out) so will have to keep an eye on wind field and final track.

Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2716.png


Models have come into better agreement with many keeping Lane's core/center just off the the islands now but hurricanes are large and destructive effects can be felt well away from the center point. You'll notice the two 'main' models Euro and GFS take Lane very close or just over some of the islands. See threats section in previous post last night, these haven't changed.
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2718.jpg

Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2717.png

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-22-2018 at 05:16 AM..
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Old 08-22-2018, 05:07 AM
 
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And one of the main reasons for expected steady weakening to begin shortly: wind shear very high across the Hawaiian islands = bad for storms, weakens them. (Red lines on map)

And official NHC forecast has Lane down to a Tropical Storm within 96hours from now. Question is how close to the islands does it get before then. And regardless, heavy flooding rains expected.

Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2719.gif
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Old 08-22-2018, 07:09 AM
 
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View from inside the eye Tuesday of Hurricane Lane from NOAA hurricanes hunter P3 aircraft "Kermit". View is known as Stadium Effect because of what it looks like. Inside the eye is perfectly calm and clear skies. At the edge of that calmness...worst part of a hurricane. The men/women on board NOAA and US Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft fly right through the storm multiple times a day for accurate readings.
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2724.jpg
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Old 08-22-2018, 07:29 AM
 
Location: Upstate SC
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Old 08-22-2018, 08:09 AM
 
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Tropical Tidbits has just posted a video discussion on Lane - if you have 8min it's well worth your time, explains whats going on and will draw on screen to help explain things clearly, I recommend: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog...atches-issued/
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Old 08-22-2018, 09:42 AM
 
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22Aug18 5aHST/8aPDT/11aEDT: Winds 155mph(250km/h), moving WNW 9mph(15km/h), pressure 935mb. Back down to Cat4, storm has begun its anticipated weakening trend with winds slighthly lower and pressure a little higher.

Track has shifted slightly West which is good but storm is large enough that direct impacts will still be felt across Hawaiian islands, but hopefully core winds stay more offshore, too early to call. Hurricane force winds (74mph+) extend up to 40miles(65km) from storm center, Tropical Storm force winds (39-73mph) extend up to 140miles(220km). These winds will start to expand out a little more as storm weakens. What does this mean in English? : if you were 41 miles away from the storm right now you wouldn't likely see any winds above 74mph. But this distance changes so keep up with it and how far from storm center you are and that will help determine your potential wind impact.

As expected Watches/Warnings expanded to include (again its based on time until event start):
Hurricane Warning Hawaii Co (Big Island) & Maui Co (includes the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai & Kahoolawe).
Hurricane Watch for Oahu & Kauai.

Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2727.png
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:53 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Another close one for Hawaii.

https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/stat...43364454539264
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:18 AM
 
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View from the International Space Station:
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2732.jpg
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2733.jpg
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:20 AM
 
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I wonder if this storm will " suddenly weaken" when it gets closer to land and wind speed can be measured and verified by other meteorological stations. It seems they're all category 4 or 5 until they approach land and then suddenly they're weak Cat 3's or cat 2's.
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:36 AM
 
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Tropical Tidbits has just posted a video discussion on Lane - if you have 8min it's well worth your time, explains whats going on and will draw on screen to help explain things clearly, I recommend: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog...atches-issued/
Thanks, very informative info.
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