U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 08-23-2018, 07:33 AM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
Reputation: 1572

Advertisements

Lane has entered the high wind shear over Hawaii and its clearly taking its toll on the storm, eye filling in, storm will weaken more quickly soon. Main story is the rain/flood/mudslides.
(IR image)
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2803.jpg
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 08-23-2018, 08:32 AM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
Reputation: 1572
Morning note from Tropical Tidbits site creator:
https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/...690985473?s=21
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-23-2018, 10:37 AM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
Reputation: 1572
23Aug18 5aHST/8aPDT/11aEDT: Winds 130mph(215km/h), moving NW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 949mb. Shear quickly weakening hurricane which was well predicted this week but still a Cat4. Center located about 305miles(490km) S of Honolulu, HI; about 210miles(335km) SSW of Kailua-Kona, HI.

Possible high-end scattered rain totals have been bumped up to 20-30inches total possible.

Cone map:
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2805.png

Tropical Watches/Warnings:
Hurricane Warning (winds poss 74mph+ depending on track/strength in 36hrs or less) for Hawaii Co (Big Island), Maui Co (includes Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Kahoolawe), and Oahu.
Hurricane Watch (same within 48hours or less) for Kauai Co (includes Kauai & Niihau).

Wind field range:
Hurricane force winds (74+mph) extend up to 35miles(55km) from storm center, Tropical Storm force (winds 39-73mph) extend up to 140miles(220km). Although this has contracted some, likely due to sudden structure change from shear, these winds will likely spread further out as storm weakens. If you are further then this distance from the center then you are safe from those winds but how far out will those winds eventually reach when it moves near/by you and the final track is the question still. Still unknown how close the center will come to islands.

Recorded Observations(source):
-NOAA Buoy in ocean about 250miles SW of Big Island winds sustained 50mph(80km/h), gust 64mph(104km/h). Keep in mind too buoys riding up and down on large waves are somewhat sheltered from winds by other large waves. (NOAA)
-Less then 0.05inch rain just NNE of Kalaoa, HI on the central Western side of Big Island (USGS as of 530aHST)
-12+inches rain in less then 24hours about 10miles West of Hilo, HI (USGS)
-17foot rise in less then 24hours Wailuku River about 4miles West of Hilo, HI (USGS)
-13foot rise in less then 24hours Honolii Stream about 6miles NW of Hilo, HI (USGS)
-NWS Honolulu & Civil Defense reporting some road closures on Big Island due to flooding & landslides.

Some of the USGS data on an interactive map can be found here: https://maps.waterdata.usgs.gov/mapper/index.html

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-23-2018 at 10:46 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-23-2018, 11:56 AM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
Reputation: 1572
I would say they're calling it a little early based on questionable storm track but National Weather Service throwing down their peak wind gust (gust, not sustained wind which is less then gust) forecast. Except for mountains with above hurricane force winds, that's all below hurricane force too overall:

Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2809.jpg
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-23-2018, 12:25 PM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
Reputation: 1572
Actually that ties in with their probability maps pretty well:

% chance of 39mph+ winds (Tropical Storm threshold):
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2813.png

% chance of 58mph+ winds:
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2812.png

% chance of 74mph+ winds (Hurricane threshold):
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2811.png

This is clearly going to be a rain/flood & high surf event by these numbers but keep in mind these still shift as storm moves.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-23-2018, 02:22 PM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,148,416 times
Reputation: 1572
NOAA buoy is in the eye of Lane with calm winds. First half of eyewall measured 107mph gust (measurements only taken every 10 minutes though and large adjacent waves can protect buoys from actual winds in the open...measured 31.8foot waves!): https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=51002

Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2816.png
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-23-2018, 02:38 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,490,309 times
Reputation: 12723
Well.. those few models look to be somewhat right now. Others have shifted as well. Yikes.

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/s...27057191579655
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-23-2018, 03:46 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,490,309 times
Reputation: 12723
Whoa! We need more buoys!

https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/stat...18195109646336
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-23-2018, 03:49 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,490,309 times
Reputation: 12723
Jim is there live.

https://twitter.com/StevePetyerak/st...93408366268416
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-23-2018, 04:01 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,490,309 times
Reputation: 12723
Love these animations.

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/statu...33022951534592
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top