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Old 08-15-2018, 10:13 AM
 
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15Aug18 8aPDT/11aEDT: Tropical Depression 14E has organized enough to become Tropical Storm Lane far off the West Mexico coast. Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1006mb.

NHC says slow steady strengthening until mixes some dry air out, then rapid intensification likely, even Cat3+ this weekend now possible, Cat4 possible eventually. Hawaii will need to monitor next week as stom will be approaching similar to Hector but too early to know if direct or indirect impacts will be felt.

Official updates for Eastern North Pacific basin storms comes from the US National Hurricane Center based in Miami, FL. Updates are issued at 2 & 8am/pmPDT (5 & 11am/pmEDT) (If Watches/Warnings issued then updates are also added at 5 & 11am/pmPDT(2 & 8am/pmEDT)) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Once Lane crosses 140W on the maps it will then be in the Central Pacific where updates will be supplied from: Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu, Hawai`i

Cone map (Shows: Current storm wind field at storm center(orange: winds 39mph+, red: 74mph+), Classification (Black/white dots with letters: "D" = Depression, "S" = Tropical Storm, "H" = Cat1 or Cat2 Hurricane, "M" = Major Hurricane (Cat3+)), any coastal tropical Watches/Warnings, and the "cone" is where the center of the storm could be over time (it's NOT the size of the storm), effects of the storm can be felt outside this area):

Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2469.png


Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2470.png

Sat imagery...until gets too far west (sources: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/ and https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php )
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Old 08-16-2018, 10:35 AM
 
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16Aug18 8aPDT/11aEDT: Estimated winds 60mph(95km/h), moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1001mb. Still a threat for Hawaii somewhere in the 5 to 8 day timeframe (mid to late next week). Too early to know potential impacts but at a minimum except high swells similar to when Hector passed the other week. Direct impacts to Hawaii cannot be ruled out.
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2507.png
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2508.png
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Old 08-16-2018, 07:02 PM
 
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16Aug18 2pPDT/5pEDT: Estimated winds 70mph(110km/h), moving W 13mph(20km/h), pressure 997mb. Hurricane shortly. Looked like an eye briefly formed just before sunset but quickly filled in. About 1,870miles ESE of Hilo, Hawaii.
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Old 08-20-2018, 10:53 AM
 
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20Aug18 5aHST/8aPDT/11aEDT: Estimated winds 125mph(205km/h), moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 961mb.

As expected, Lane rapidly intensified over the weekend. NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into Hawaii to base recon operations out of for this week. NOAA & Air Force are flying in and around Lane for actual measurements now and you can follow along in near real-time here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

(To read the charts on that page, you may want to think of the data in the charts as a side view cross section of what the plane is flying through...ie: ocean surface is bottom of charts, top of clouds is top of charts. When they fly through the eye/center you'll actually see the wind chart line climb up, suddenly drop to near zero, then suddenly back to near peak then gradually taper off as head away from the storm). *Keep in mind too Flight Level wind speed is always higher then the actual at surface wind speed, and hurricanes are reported as and category based on surface level wind speed).
Here's one the plane just flew through the eye, notice top two charts the wind (blue-ish) goes up, drops, then back up, top left is flight level, top right chart is surface measurements, speed in knots:
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2656.png


**Greater threat for Hawaii**. Chances are increasing for direct impacts on some of the Hawaiian islands. Keep in mind (see cone info on very first post above) the cone shows where the storm CENTER/eye may go in time, but storms are large and impacts felt outside this area(strogest part is with the center though). This track is in between the Euro (more to left) and the GFS (more to right) models.

Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2652.png


But wind shear is expected to increase (bad for storms) thus steady weakening trend is expected this week starting around Wednesday, and possibly storm weakens to a Tropical Storm when approaching Hawaii, but stronger storm if stears more towards the Big Island, but will have to watch.

Because Watches/Warnings are a time based issuance, we will likely see Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches issued within 24hours for some locations and other locations later. They will change to Warnings once even closer in time to event start.

Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2654.png

Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2655.gif


Reminder: Lane has crossed 140W on maps which means its covered by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center here: Lane Products

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-20-2018 at 11:23 AM..
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:18 PM
 
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You can clearly see the confidence in track is low after 48hours, model spread is high:
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2672.png

Intensity guidance mostly favors steady weakening later this week:
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2673.png


Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2674.gif
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Old 08-21-2018, 09:06 AM
 
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21Aug18 5aHST/8aPDT/11aEDT: Estimated winds 150mph(240km/h), moving W 12mph(19km/h), pressure 950mb. Cat 4 hurricane.

Hurricane Watches have been posted for portions of Hawaii:
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2684.png

High uncertainty in forecast track but looks to at least be close enough for some impacts, if not full landfall. I would assume main threats to be surf, potential heavy rains (flash floods / mudslide risk) as well as wind dangers depending how close and how strong storm is. This is an island in the middle of the Pacific, supplies will run out quickly in stores.
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2685.png

Overall, intensity guidance continues to point to a steadily weakening storm this week, including official NHC forecasts:
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-img_2686.png

Message from Central Pacific Hurricane Center:
"KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy rainfall. As Lane is expected to be slow-moving as it nears the islands, it will produce large and damaging surf, mainly along exposed south and west facing shores. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Hawaii and Maui counties, and additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches may be required later today or tonight.

2. It is much too early to confidently determine which, if any, of the main Hawaiian Islands will be directly impacted by Lane. Even if the center of Lane were to remain offshore, it is important to remember that impacts from a hurricane can extend well away from the center. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely monitor the progress of Lane the next couple of days. "

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-21-2018 at 09:15 AM..
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Old 08-21-2018, 12:18 PM
 
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21Aug18 8aHST/11aPDT/2pEDT: Estimated winds 155mph(250km/h), moving W 9mph(14km/h), pressure 940mb.

*Threat to Hawaii continues to grow*.

With Hurricane Watches posted, official updates are issued every 3 hours around the clock at 2,5,8 & 11am/pmHST from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages...ormid=EP142018

Flash Flood Watch issued for all of Hawaii (statistically water is the main cause of death of over 75% of hurricane victims on average in the US):
"Abundant moisture from Hurricane Lane is expected to move over the Big Island late Wednesday and spreading to the rest of the islands through Friday. Intense rainfall will be possible, especially along southeast and east facing slopes. The risk of flooding will only increase as Hurricane Lane approaches.

* In addition to flood prone areas, heavy rain events of this size may cause flooding in areas outside of designated flood zones. Low spots in roads will become dangerous and impassible due to severe runoff. High amounts of debris in streams and gulches may clog bridges and culverts resulting in dangerous flooding outside the normal channels and significant property damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued."
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Old 08-21-2018, 05:35 PM
 
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Recon finding pressure continues to drop, down to 920's 930ish = very likely up to Cat5 at next advisory due out shortly. Weakening trend still expected to start sometime Wednesday but when you start with a bigger storm it still takes time to wind down from that.
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Old 08-21-2018, 06:18 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Recon finding pressure continues to drop, down to 920's 930ish = very likely up to Cat5 at next advisory due out shortly. Weakening trend still expected to start sometime Wednesday but when you start with a bigger storm it still takes time to wind down from that.
The 2pHST/5pPDT/8pEDT update rated pressure after review at 929mb. Wind data was tagged as suspect and may still be under review, but looked like near 170mph, but not official. Winds were held at 155mph sustained. It's possible winds at surface haven't increased too...typically pressure changes then winds follow within a few hours. If pressure drops winds increase, pressure rises winds decrease, that's why I include it in updates.
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Old 08-21-2018, 09:43 PM
 
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21Aug18 5pHST/8pPDT/11pEDT: Estimated winds 155mph(250km/h), moving WNW 9mph(15km/h), pressure 929mb. Reviewed aircraft recon did measure 161mph winds at the surface but due to suspect readings and satellite imagery, winds are held at 155mph. Appears to be beginning its anticipated turn up around the western edge of a ridge but will enter an area of light steering flow (storms are big but they're moved by other nearby weather systems) which is why there remains questions in final track. Wind shear and nearby mountains of Hawaii expected to cause steady weakening beginning Wednesday.

Best outcome: if storm stays to left edge of cone more away from land and more time to weaken.
Worst outcome: if storm tracks more towards the right side of cone track and makes landfall on or nears one of the islands.
(landfall is defined as the eye, or area of lowest pressure, crosses a beach).

(Note: Watches/Warnings are time based issuance, may or may not mean something changed)
-Hurricane Warning for Hawaii Co. (Big Island) (Warning means Hurricane conditions (winds 74+mph) are possible within 36hours or less. Preparations should be rushed to completion.
-Hurricane Watch for Maui Co. (includes Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe islands) & Oahu (Watch means Hurricane conditions (winds 74+mph) are possible within 48hours or less.
-Additional Watches/Warnings will likely be issued for other locations by sometime Wednesday.
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-lane1.jpg


Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-lane2.jpg

Key messages from Hurricane Center this update:
"1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy rainfall anywhere in the state. As Lane is expected to be slow-moving as it nears the islands, it will produce large and damaging surf.

2. As Lane moves up from the southeast, the earliest potential threat to land will be for the Big Island, where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Preparations there should be rushed to completion as tropical-storm force winds are forecast to arrive in the warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Maui County, and is now posted for Oahu, with tropical-storm force winds possibly beginning Thursday or Thursday night.

3. Due to a continued high degree of uncertainty on the forecast track and intensity of Lane, hurricane impacts could be felt across any of the Hawaiian Islands. It is too early to predict which, if any, of the islands are directly impacted. Remember that life threatening weather conditions can extend well away from the center of the hurricane. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely monitor the progress of Lane during the next few days."



Local related info/news (source):
-Wed-Fri: all after school activities canceled (Hawaii Dept of Education)
-School closure decision is pending, some schools may become shelters if situation warrants (Hawaii DOE)
-All public schools on Hawaii Island and Maui Co. closed Wed until further notice (Hawaii DOE)
-Recommendation for all residents to have 14-day supply of food, water, other needed supplies (batteries, medications, etc). (Hawaii Emergency Mngmnt - standard disaster prep)
-Hawaii Red Cross is seeking volunteers for potential staffing of shelters or damage assessments, training provided, register here: https://www.redcross.org/local/hawaii/volunteer.html (Hawaii Red Cross)


Threats:
Note: Due to uncertain track forecast wind forecast is also uncertain as winds are stronger the closer to the eye/center you get so is dependent on track. All other impacts still expected regardless of landfall or not, effects are felt well away from the center.
-Rain: Likely the biggest story with this storm will be scattered heavy rains and therefore flash flood and mudslides risk. Scattered totals of 10-15inches possible, isolated areas of 20inches possible. Mountains are very efficient at ringing out rains from tropical systems especially the side rain bands are coming into. If you are near a stream, river, ditch, etc please use caution and seek shelter elsewhere BEFORE the storm hits if you feel it may endanger you!
-Tornadoes: Typically short lived and weak, are possible as rain bands sweep across the islands this week. Almost all tornadoes in hurricanes are found in the NE quadrant (top right corner of storm) which is where the islands will be in relation to Lane. Hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere spin counter-clockwise, thus any brief tornadoes that move with rain bands will tend to move somewhere in an East to West or towards the NW direction. As storm passes some may move with rainbands in a S to N motion.
-Trees: I'm not familiar with Hawaii's trees. If they're like S US mainland Palm Trees then they can bend in winds to a point, but the larger more hardwood type trees can't bend as well and tend to break or fall in higher winds. In the US mainland just 40mph+ winds for hours and hours with saturated soils tends to allow them to be uprooted and fall after a period of time.
-Power: Location, location. But I would expect scattered power outages to be common regardless of storm path. Crews will attempt to repair lines until conditions become too dangerous then pull them off until storm passes. Major infrastructure and high population centers tend to get priority. Have ways to charge your phones!
-Cell Towers / Communications: Typical to see scattered communication issues in and after storms. Cell towers on average have an 8 to 24hours backup battery system. So potential to loose signal a day after storm as well.
-Storm Surge: Some surge is possible, especially if the center of the storm nears/crosses land. Surge is the entire body of water rising a certain height with waves on top,. Surge is typically highest where the center crosses land and just to the NE of that point, and lower further you go from that, although bays, land shape can help determine who sees worst. Hawaii is not as prone to surge as the US mainland is though (mainland is not an island and has much shallower waters which increase surge).
-Waves/Surf: High waves will reach the beach before the storm arrives and lessen after the storm has left. Some surf could reach and damage structures especially on South, East and West facing beaches. Rip current threat will be high, even if the weather seems nice before and well after the storm departs.
-Winds: (See note at top of threats section). Also, winds are higher the higher up you go from sea level. So mountainous areas could see higher winds. Wind damage is exponential, similar to earthquakes. I am not familiar with Hawaii building codes. Florida has some of the toughest codes in the US. Outside of FL typically we see winds around 90-110mph range is where roofs start to fail here and there (This is also dependent on how old it is, quality of materials, quality of workmanship, what condition is it in, is it wide open to the wind or do other buildings protect it, was the garage door closed or open, etc). Mobile homes / trailers are NOT safe in Hurricane winds. Also skyscrapers tend to funnel winds stronger between each other, and typical to see glass fall from high rise buildings further up in high winds. Winds will be higher in open areas like beach fronts, airports, and fields, and less in more urban areas or lot of trees around to help slow the wind some, but not too terribly much.


What to expect if you've never been in a hurricane:
-To be honest...typically its all exciting (if you like weather) and you hear its coming over and over and....we'll you wait and wait and wait and it honestly starts to get boring. You have a several hundred mile wide storm that's moving so slow you could outrun it on your bicycle. Most of this is related to strongest part of a storm is at the eye/center and less the further out you are. The outer fringes typically are just some clouds, maybe a little rain, and maybe a good breeze. But each wave of it or rain band (depending on storm structure and storm path in relation to your location) brings in a little more rain, a little more wind, and it keeps adding up to a point where it may become a little scary, or the wind noise starts to bug you because it just doesn't stop, and you start to here a branch of a tree fall here or there or even a whole tree, or some debris start to bounce around occasionally. It's the wear and tear over a multi-hour long phase that starts to add up. And if you have a sturdy shelter/house, have supplies, use common sense, then you should be perfectly fine other then inconvenienced. Are you safe? I can't answer that. You should always listen to gov officials and local emergency management on what to do. Do you have a large tree next to one corner of your house? If so you may want to stay on the other side of the house for the storm. Is your home a few feet from a river/stream with no elevation above it? Then you may want to stay at a shelter or friends house if you think it could flood and threaten your house. Think about your surroundings and make preparations/decisions as needed. Depending on where center goes and how strong storm ends up being when it nears, rain and therefore flooding and mudslides could be the biggest problem with this storm.

Notes:
-Emergency services typically will not respond if conditions are too bad.
-Do NOT drive out at night especially to sight-see...roads could be washed out. The majority of flood deaths in the US actually are vehicle related, turn around don't drown!
-Surge and fresh water flooding (Rains) account for over 75% of deaths in US hurricanes. Be weary of water!!
-You can't wait last minute to get supplies. Stores will likely begin to close early so they can prepare their stores for storm conditions and send their employees home in time to prepare.


Outer edge barely visible on long range radar:
Pacific - Lane forms August 15, 2018-laneradar.jpg

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-21-2018 at 10:12 PM..
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