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Old 08-15-2018, 10:50 AM
 
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15Aug18 11aEDT: Invest 98L organized enough to become Sub-Tropical Depression 5 has organized enough to finally become Sub-Tropical Storm Ernesto in the far North Atlantic. Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving N 8mph(13km/h), pressure 1008mb.

No threat to land. Has about 24 or so hours to strengthen before reaching colder waters and later gets absorbed by a passing front thats heading for parts of Europe.

Official updates for Atlantic basin storms comes from the US National Hurricane Center based in Miami, FL. Updates are issued at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/AST (If Watches/Warnings issued then updates are also added at 2 & 8am/pmEDT/AST) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Cone map (Shows: Current storm wind field at storm center(orange: winds 39mph+, red: 74mph+), Classification (Black/white dots with letters: "D" = Depression, "S" = Tropical Storm, "H" = Cat1 or Cat2 Hurricane, "M" = Major Hurricane (Cat3+)), any coastal tropical Watches/Warnings, and the "cone" is where the center of the storm could be over time (it's NOT the size of the storm), effects of the storm can be felt outside this area:
Atlantic - Ernesto forms August 15, 2018-img_2472.png

Atlantic - Ernesto forms August 15, 2018-img_2471.png

Sat imagery (sources: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/ and https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php )

Smoke from far off wildfires (the hazier white clouds to the North of system being pulled down around the Western edge of storm) actually wrapping around near the storm:
Atlantic - Ernesto forms August 15, 2018-img_2474.jpg

Smoke can be traced back to US Pacific NW/W wildfires (chart from Brian McNoldy on social media):
Atlantic - Ernesto forms August 15, 2018-img_2473.jpg
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Old 08-16-2018, 10:41 AM
 
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16Aug18 8aPDT/11aEDT: Estimated winds 45mph(75km/h), moving NE 16mph(26km/h), pressure 1007mb.
Atlantic - Ernesto forms August 15, 2018-img_2510.png
Atlantic - Ernesto forms August 15, 2018-img_2511.png
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Old 08-16-2018, 07:10 PM
 
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16Aug18 2pPDT/5pEDT: Estimated winds 45mph(75km/h), moving NE 18mph(30km/h), pressure 1007mb. Has fully acquired Tropical characteristics and is officially a Tropical Storm. No other changes...out to sea, merging with a cold front soon and together they honeymoon in N Europe.
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Old 08-20-2018, 07:32 AM
 
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Ernesto fell apart / merged with a passing front on Saturday 18Aug18 and is no more. Official NHC storm update archives can be found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/ERNESTO.shtml?
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Old 08-24-2018, 06:58 AM
 
Location: In Miami but, Inside the Resistance !!
1,790 posts, read 928,725 times
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Crossin me fingers here in SW Miami .... Last Year's Dog showed up on Sunday the 10th of September....This has been a MAGNIFICENT Summer Season for us, to me the coolest and best since I moved to The Sunshine Land back in 1973.

So we keep looking East and cking the NOAA Web Site daily. Hopefully this 2018 ends as good as it has been all year.

There's a Yellow X out there just off Africa....

800 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave that just emerged off the west coast of Africa
is forecast to move quickly westward over the tropical Atlantic at
about 20 mph during the next several days. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity may increase near the wave east of the Lesser
Antilles by the middle of next week, development of this system is
not expected through Wednesday due to its fast forward speed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
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Old 08-24-2018, 07:17 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammocks Bum View Post

There's a Yellow X out there just off Africa...
Yep! It's being covered in the 2018 general thread. But you're right, the chances of this system have lowered to near 0% now:
Atlantic - Ernesto forms August 15, 2018-img_2869.png
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