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Old 09-05-2018, 05:10 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bruce View Post
edit: Never mind. This is basically the exact same image Cambium posted above. Too early
Which one? The GFS? I'm sure it's being plastered all over social media. LOL.


How wild is this? Not only a Cat 5 but it stops over the water, loops around, and then hits Southern New England. Poor GFS, looks drunk.


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Old 09-05-2018, 05:15 AM
 
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That is what they do 95% of the time and miss FL.
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Old 09-05-2018, 05:20 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Same map I posted earlier from EuroEPS members.


https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1037263088846815232
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Old 09-05-2018, 05:32 AM
 
Location: Upstate SC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Which one? The GFS? I'm sure it's being plastered all over social media. LOL.
The ECMWF 216 that shows it sitting on the lowcountry of SC. I already uploaded it, why not:

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Old 09-05-2018, 05:43 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bruce View Post
The ECMWF 216 that shows it sitting on the lowcountry of SC. I already uploaded it, why not:
Ahh yeah. Kinda interesting and concerning due to the fact it is the (King) Euro and that it keeps trying to hit land. First was NC, then Florida one time, now SC. Has it ever just looped up and out over water? Strange. And given that the GFS, Canadian and many ensemble members are closer to land now makes me wonder.
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Old 09-05-2018, 07:06 AM
 
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Thats a lot of dry air/dust surrounding Florence:
Atlantic - Florence forms September 1, 2018-img_3262.jpg
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Old 09-05-2018, 09:44 AM
 
Location: 30461
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Same map I posted earlier from EuroEPS members.


https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1037263088846815232
So Georgia is now in the cone? There must be a lot of suppression in the Atlantic to keep this storm from turning more north. There's a reason a direct hit on the Georgia coast by a hurricane is pretty rare.
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Old 09-05-2018, 10:03 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BullochResident View Post
So Georgia is now in the cone? There must be a lot of suppression in the Atlantic to keep this storm from turning more north. There's a reason a direct hit on the Georgia coast by a hurricane is pretty rare.
No one is officially in the 'cone' yet...too far out distance & time wise. Just wide variety of model solutions from different models that keep jumping back and forth or that cluster one way or another or 132 ways in between. So FL to Nova Scotia and Bermuda should be watching but hopefully models will come into better agreement this weekend.

The concerning factor is the overall shift more westward in models trends that still continues for several days now.

Here's the official cone, which lies about the middle of models (cone only shows where center/eye of storm may be in time (not the size of the storm), and the S = Tropical Storm strength, H = Cat 1 or 2, M = Cat3+):

Atlantic - Florence forms September 1, 2018-img_3266.png
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Old 09-05-2018, 10:20 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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I went to check the current Upper Level pattern and was like Wha??? Cat 3? Don't blink!


I thought was still a Tropical Storm. Is this thing going to remain Cat 2 & stronger next 10 days? Interesting.







Also sounds like Hunters aren't flying into it yet and they are using Satellites to judge the details of Florence. Might as well. Save money for when its closer.


Quote:
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE FLOURISHING IN THE FACE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 45.7W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 45.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Thursday, followed by a turn back toward the northwest early next
week.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is
a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some weakening is possible during the next few days, but Florence is
expected to remain a strong hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).
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Old 09-05-2018, 10:23 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,325 posts, read 56,816,568 times
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GFS12z loading now.. Still on Hour 168 (Sept 12)... Got a NW move heading toward Mid Atlantic. Lets see what it does


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...18090512&fh=84
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