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Old 09-05-2018, 10:33 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,066 posts, read 56,490,309 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BullochResident View Post
There must be a lot of suppression in the Atlantic to keep this storm from turning more north.
It's what has been giving us this hot and humid pattern since mid July. Blocking High to the north and its pretty strong indeed. Reminds me... let me grab the Upper level flow map to get a better look
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Old 09-05-2018, 10:57 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,066 posts, read 56,490,309 times
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Boom.. Check it out! Massive Blocking over the Mid Atlantic stretching into the Atlantic Ocean.


So since the current pressure of Florence is 959mb I used the 300-850mb Steering Currents.


Florence isn't moving north yet. Looks like It had the chance this week but that's gone now.


Question is what will that blocking High do over the next 7-10 days. FOF #FateOfFlorence


If it shifts West enough then Florence can hit the U.S. You can also see why the Euro is hitting Florida and SC, its saying that blocking isn't budging!





Source:
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Old 09-05-2018, 12:40 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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New Euro12z loading now. Puts Florence right there Wed Sept 12th. Waiting for next few frames to see what it does.


Gotta step out though so You'll have to check it. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...8090512&fh=168

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Old 09-05-2018, 01:55 PM
 
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Florence Flourishing in the Face of Southwesterly Shear
Category 3 Hurricane
Posted: 10:33 AM, August 30, 2018
Updated: 8:45 AM, September 05, 2018

Discussion
At 1100 a.m. AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 22.0 north, longitude 45.7 west. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, followed by a turn back toward the northwest early next week.
Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Some weakening is possible during the next few days, but Florence is expected to remain a strong hurricane through early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

Graphs and maps:
https://www.click2houston.com/weathe...cane/td-6-2018
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Old 09-05-2018, 02:38 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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This is true. But even before twitter became big we had the ability to know about a potential a week + away. Problem was nobody made efforts to warn the public. I can think back to 2009 when we knew over a week away about a big storm. Thats when I started learning about the models.

There are no "surprises" with weather as far as not knowing there is a threat and to prepare mentally at least

https://twitter.com/AMSweather/statu...22606515924992
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Old 09-05-2018, 02:44 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Getting closer

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/s...40876895772672
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Old 09-05-2018, 02:49 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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That High which has been around all Summer is preventing this thing from turning sooner

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/statu...73587685093381
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Old 09-05-2018, 04:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Don't blink. Just like that.. It's a CAT 4 now. Should weaken though after today but to Cat 2-3 only.


Quote:
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 46.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 46.6 West. Florence is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin
Thursday night, followed by a turn back toward the northwest early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Florence is now a category 4 hurricane
on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
during the next couple of days, but Florence is expected to remain
a powerful hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

https://twitter.com/AMSweather/statu...62088531275776
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Old 09-05-2018, 04:25 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,066 posts, read 56,490,309 times
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Here is the history of Florence so far. Gaining Latitude each day








Bermuda will be too far north IMO to worry about it. We'll see.


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Old 09-05-2018, 04:38 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,066 posts, read 56,490,309 times
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Latest GFS18z not only hits North Carolinas edge but watch what it does after. Coastal states get slammed.


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