U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 09-05-2018, 05:25 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,163 posts, read 56,622,457 times
Reputation: 12805

Advertisements

Just think about weather and extremes. Think of a puzzle. So many pieces are involved but when the perfect fit happens, you complete the end result.

Hopefully everyone understands what is involved with extreme or any event for that matter.

I will boil it down to 1 word......TIMING. Timing of whats happening around the storm. Downstream and upstream.

https://twitter.com/snowmonian/statu...80212282400768

Basically saying the through (jet stream dipping) and front in Eastern U.S would kick Florence out but it may miss that opportunity and whats left is a ridge in Canada which would allow it to hit land
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 09-05-2018, 05:32 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,163 posts, read 56,622,457 times
Reputation: 12805
Now is the chance. Loop away or visit the beaches

https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1037090880505688064
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-05-2018, 05:34 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,163 posts, read 56,622,457 times
Reputation: 12805
Hard to get same exact setups every single time but it would be new this time

https://twitter.com/VerstegenWX/stat...42381405188112
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-05-2018, 09:15 PM
 
5,857 posts, read 8,696,012 times
Reputation: 6395
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Which one? The GFS? I'm sure it's being plastered all over social media. LOL.


How wild is this? Not only a Cat 5 but it stops over the water, loops around, and then hits Southern New England. Poor GFS, looks drunk.

Actually I'm pretty sure we had one loop like that last year too.

However being I'm in VAB I'm gonna say this will change like always lol
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-05-2018, 11:32 PM
 
4,288 posts, read 2,172,083 times
Reputation: 1576
5Sept18 11pEDT/AST - Estimated winds 125mph(205km/h), moving NW 10mph(17km/h), pressure 956mb. But now at 1aEDT satellite shows Florence under the effect of high wind shear finally and has become noticeably lopsided in appearance = weaker.

Wish we had aircraft recon of storm but no luck. So far out there (close to 2,000 miles away) Maybe they'll borrow the Global Hawk drone from NASA again like they've done with a few storms way out in the Atlantic but likely no value added justification for it other then I just want to know how strong it is.

Large swells will reach Bermuda towards Friday this week, and the US East coast early next week through the week, rip current threat will rise due to this regardless of storm track...powerful storm = waves already generated.

NHC says the shear expected to continue weakening Florence some next day or two then relaxes as storm reaches warmer waters = likely to restrengthen. NHC: "At long range, a rather large upper-level anticyclone is forecast to form near Florence, which would provide ample opportunity for the hurricane to regain its former strength and grow in size. Thus, the official forecast shows slow weakening in response to the initial shear, then levels off, with a significant increase in strength predicted by day 5."

A ridge looks to build North of the storm and force it more Westward this week. Given the large spread in models confidence in future track remains low for the time being...but we're talking 7-10 days before any potential US impacts so that's not too surprising that far out in time. Give it a few days and hopefully picture becomes more clearer. Either way always good to have your Hurricane plans ready since we are near peak of hurricane season and with Gordon news fading people will start to notice Florence more, might as well beat any rush to stores.

Cone map, looks like if were to effect Bermuda it would towards Monday/Tuesday timeframe:
Atlantic - Florence forms September 1, 2018-img_3302.png

Hurricane force winds only go out about 15miles from storm center. Philippe Papin with an analysis on part of why the storm was able to strengthen unexpectedly with the presence of high wind shear (bad for storms) because its vortex / field of influence / core may actually be smaller then models picked up on = not actually in the wind shear influence yet basically:
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1037539554989826048
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-06-2018, 04:44 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,163 posts, read 56,622,457 times
Reputation: 12805
Update on Florence: Down to a Cat 3 ...for now. Check out the change in direction and speed.


Quote:
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

...FLORENCE WEAKENING FOR NOW BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 47.9W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 47.9 West. Florence is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected
later today, followed by a turn toward the west by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional weakening is
forecast today, but Florence is expected to remain a strong
hurricane for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


Attached Thumbnails
Atlantic - Florence forms September 1, 2018-map16.jpg  
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-06-2018, 04:56 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,163 posts, read 56,622,457 times
Reputation: 12805
3 of the main models. Latest update:


GFS...stays too far north early so it recurves early and misses land, but boy is that close to southern New England. Almost hits Bermuda. I don't think that will happen or even be this close.





Canadian model hits North Carolina.





Euro hits North Carolina





Latest Hurricane Models. Even after today some models are more south, some are more north. After tomorrow they are more scattered but generally its a NW move after tomorrow.


Attached Thumbnails
Atlantic - Florence forms September 1, 2018-euro7.jpg   Atlantic - Florence forms September 1, 2018-cmc2.jpg   Atlantic - Florence forms September 1, 2018-gfs4.jpg   Atlantic - Florence forms September 1, 2018-hurricane3.jpg  
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-06-2018, 05:02 AM
 
16,248 posts, read 10,978,763 times
Reputation: 5398
Not coming anywhere near FL so count that one out.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-06-2018, 06:48 AM
 
10,361 posts, read 3,115,637 times
Reputation: 11265
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
Not coming anywhere near FL so count that one out.
Hope you are correct. They never come near FL ... until they do. After Irma will she / won't she last year, we've had it. We need a year with no hurricanes.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-06-2018, 08:36 AM
 
Location: The South
17,825 posts, read 24,626,072 times
Reputation: 6479
Quote:
Originally Posted by newtovenice View Post
Hope you are correct. They never come near FL ... until they do. After Irma will she / won't she last year, we've had it. We need a year with no hurricanes.
A week before Irma, models had her heading toward the mid Atlantic. Cambium and others are way better at this than I, but I wouldn’t rule out a westward track toward FL.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top