U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 09-03-2018, 07:08 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,490,309 times
Reputation: 12723

Advertisements

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1036590353703464960
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 09-03-2018, 07:13 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,490,309 times
Reputation: 12723
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



Quote:
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORMS OVER THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH HEAVY RAINS LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 830 AM EDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of South
Florida from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, and for the Florida
Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Golden Beach to Bonita Beach
* Craig Key to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay
* Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 830 AM EDT (1230 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 80.7 West. Gordon is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next
72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will pass
over the southern tip of the Florida peninsula this morning, move
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and evening, and
reach the warning area along the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday
or Tuesday night.

Surface observations and radar data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...1 to 2 ft.
Mississippi-Alabama border to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to
4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida
Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida
peninsula.

Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through early Thursday.

These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning areas
across South Florida and the Florida Keys, and those conditions
should continue through the afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within portions of the central Gulf Coast warning area by
late Tuesday.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-03-2018, 07:20 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,060 posts, read 56,490,309 times
Reputation: 12723
I like the maps that have the path its taken and the forecasted paths. If this technically doesnt make landfall in Florida it will have missed all landmasses its entire journey until hitting LA. Neat.

https://twitter.com/hbwx/status/1036604138887569408

Edit: actually nevermind. The keys.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-03-2018, 08:12 AM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,149,674 times
Reputation: 1572
With Watches/Warnings posted that means per protocol the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will issue official updates every 3 hours at or before 1, 4, 7, & 10am/pmCDT (2, 5, 8, & 11am/pmEDT). This is where all apps/news get their official storm stats from and can be found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The Storm Surge team will update the surge maps within 30 to 90 minutes of those updates.

Safe to say it's quick movement is good thing...less time over really warm waters to fuel it the better.

Storm Surge Watches up for portions of the Gulf coast:
-1-2ft Destin, FL to MS/AL border
-2-4ft MS/AL border to mouth of the Mississippi River
-1-2ft mouth of the Mississippi River to LA/TX border
Atlantic - Gordon forms September 3, 2018-g1.jpg

That may not sound like much and in many cases it won't be but that's enough to temporarily block some roads before the storm center arrives, deeper then most animals/pets are tall, enough to float off a vehicle and definitely ruin it if affected, share sewage with your neighbors toilets, maybe get into your favorite sea food restaurant on the water, displace snakes and gators, etc. Always good to know your elevation so you know what you're in for or if you will be affected or not, and where those low spots by water ways are so you don't run into any surprises. If the storm comes in at high vs low tide that will affect the height as well...low tide it may just seem like a normal high tide or so, but if it hits at high tide when surge comes then water will be higher then the high tide normal height.



Given the winds and surge threat I imagine we'll see some low lying coastal waterway campgrounds closed/evacuated just like we did for Alberto earlier this year. Campers don't hold up well in strong winds and chance of higher waters. I haven't heard/seen anything official yet but I bet those announcements are coming...its standard practice so if you're one of those go ahead and plan now, that would likely happen today or first thing Tuesday morning.


Timing of arrival of Tropical Storm force winds (39mph or higher):
Atlantic - Gordon forms September 3, 2018-g2.jpg

Wind threat map per NWS New Orleans:
Atlantic - Gordon forms September 3, 2018-g3.jpg

Rain threat and tornado threat will increase. Tornado's are common in Tropical systems especially in the NorthEast quadrant of tropical systems as rain bands cross over land. These are usually small and brief and follow the general direction the rain band is traveling.

This info is based on the 830am update, new info will be coming with the 11am update shortly from the NHC.

Keep an eye on this storm...changes may happen quickly to forecast and landfall likely just over 24hours away.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-03-2018, 08:41 AM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,149,674 times
Reputation: 1572
Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft have been launched to provide real time data, follow along here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-03-2018, 09:23 AM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,149,674 times
Reputation: 1572
3Sept18 10aCDT/11aEDT: Estimated winds 45mph(75km/h), moving WNW 16mph(26km/h), pressure 1009mb. NWS Key West reporting 65mph winds out at Carysfort Reef Light earlier though. I'm guessing they'll wait for the center to enter open waters so aircraft recon can get a true wind speed (they don't fly measurements over land). Waters in the Gulf are very warm, lucky its moving fast, the sooner it gets to the N US Gulf coast the better (less time to develop that way).

Should make landfall along central US Gulf coast late Tuesday. Storm could become a hurricane prior to landfall.

Changes:
-Hurricane Watch mouth of Pearl River to AL/FL border (means hurricane winds(74mph+) are possible within 48hours or less)
-Storm Surge Warning: Shell Beach, LA to MS/AL border (means life-threatening water inundation moving inland from the coast possible within 36hours or less) Roads may be cut off before the storm center arrives, head all local authorities.

Storm Surge Heights (If occurs at high tide, less if occurs outside of high tide):
-Shell Beach, LA to MS/AL border: 3-5ft
-Shell Beach, LA to mouth of Mississippi River: 2-4ft
-Navarre, FL to MS/AL border: 2-4ft
-Mouth of Mississippi River to LA/TX border: 1-2ft

Storm surge is typically highest from the center of the storm at landfall and East of the center with waves on top. Tide cycle and shape of the land can affect heights.
Atlantic - Gordon forms September 3, 2018-g12.jpg

Close up inland surge interactive map hasn't been updated for 11am update yet...will post if I see it available.

Rain:
-2-4in Bahamas, S FL, isolated 8in S FL.
-4-6in S AL, MS, LA, isolated 8in possible.

Tornado's:
-Small brief lived tornado's are common in tropical systems, mainly in the NorthEast quadrant (top right corner, going from the storm center to outer edge of storm)

Cone map (notice the potential to stall/slow towards Arkansas/Oklahoma region):
Atlantic - Gordon forms September 3, 2018-g11.jpg
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-03-2018, 09:45 AM
 
16,118 posts, read 10,920,395 times
Reputation: 5334
Too far south to do me any good.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-03-2018, 10:14 AM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,149,674 times
Reputation: 1572
Ok, NHC Surge division has updated maps based on data from the 10aCDT/11aEDT NHC update, to be used for guidance only, heed local officials, surge is usually highest from near the storm center and to the East, *Subject to change, does not cover areas behind levees (other groups responsibility), can vary based on actual storm speed, strength, track, size, coastal features/shapes, is it high/low tide, can travel up waterways connected to Gulf waterways, does not include flooding from rainfall. This would occur close to and when the center reaches land, some roadways may be cut off by rising waters prior to storm center arriving.

You can view here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...ation#contents

Some screen shots:
Atlantic - Gordon forms September 3, 2018-ssguide.jpg
Atlantic - Gordon forms September 3, 2018-ss2.jpg
Atlantic - Gordon forms September 3, 2018-ss4.jpg
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-03-2018, 11:37 AM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,149,674 times
Reputation: 1572
3Sept18 1230pCDT/130pEDT - Not what you want to see...eye/core appears to be quickly developing just SSW of Marco Island FL. Aircraft recon should be there for the 2pmEDT update to see what the storm strength is.
Atlantic - Gordon forms September 3, 2018-eye.jpg
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-03-2018, 12:12 PM
 
4,249 posts, read 2,149,674 times
Reputation: 1572
3Sept18 1pCDT/2pEDT: Estimated winds 50mph(85km/h), moving WNW 16mph(26km/h), pressure 1007mb. Recon just measured preliminary readings (under review) of winds 55-60mph and pressure 1005mb. So steadily strengthening. I would keep watching regularly as forecast are tweaked updated as landfall would be tomorrow evening. Nice core forming so don't need that picking up strength too fast nor want any surprises.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top