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Old 09-03-2018, 07:42 AM
 
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3Sept18 2aPDT/5aEDT: Tropical Depression 17E organized enough Sunday to become Tropical Storm Olivia off the West Mexico coast. Estimated winds now 45mph(75km/h), moving W 7mph(11km/h), pressure 1002mb. Located about 490miles(785km) SW of S Tip of Baja.

Shear mainly looks to impede much strengthening this week. Sorry Olivia, looks like you missed the Cat3+ East Pacific boat.

Official updates for Eastern North Pacific basin storms comes from the US National Hurricane Center based in Miami, FL. Updates are issued at 2 & 8am/pmPDT (5 & 11am/pmHST/EDT) (If Watches/Warnings issued then updates are also added at 5 & 11am/pmPDT(2 & 8am/pmHST/EDT)) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Once/if Olivia crosses 140W on the maps it will then be in the Central Pacific where updates will be supplied from: Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu, Hawai`i

Cone map (Shows: Current storm wind field at storm center(orange: winds 39mph+, red: 74mph+), Classification (Black/white dots with letters: "D" = Depression, "S" = Tropical Storm, "H" = Cat1 or Cat2 Hurricane, "M" = Major Hurricane (Cat3+)), any coastal tropical Watches/Warnings, and the "cone" is where the center of the storm could be over time (it's NOT the size of the storm), effects of the storm can be felt outside this area):
Pacific - Olivia forms September 2, 2018-o1.jpg

Satellite imagery Links:
-GOES 16 (GOESeast) until it gets too far West (Out newest operational weather satellite): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php

-Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/

-GOESwest (**Older one that will be replaced by GOES17**): GOES West Satellite Imagery

-GOESwest (New "GOES17". Limited imagery): https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bi...roduct=11p20um
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Old 09-03-2018, 08:45 PM
 
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3Sept18 8pPDT/11pEDT: Estimated winds 75mph(120km/h), moving W 9mph(15km/h), pressure 987mb. NHC now says Olivia may continue to strengthen.
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Old 09-04-2018, 11:58 PM
 
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4Sept18 8pPDT/11pEDT: Estimated winds 125mph(205km/h), moving W 12mph(19km/h), pressure 955mb. Strong Cat3 now.
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Old 09-05-2018, 11:54 PM
 
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5Sept18 5pHST/8pPDT/11pEDT: Estimated winds 100mph(155km/h), moving NWW 14mph(22km/h), pressure 979mb. Massive size of eye.

Cone map:
Pacific - Olivia forms September 2, 2018-img_3310.png

Models in fairly tight agreement into early to mid next week with potential direct impacts to Hawaii:
Pacific - Olivia forms September 2, 2018-img_3308.png

Intensity guidance suggest continued weakening though:
Pacific - Olivia forms September 2, 2018-img_3309.png
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Old 09-06-2018, 09:56 AM
 
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6Sept18 2aHST/8aPDT/11aEDT: Estimated winds 120mph(195km/h), moving WNW 15mph(24km/h), pressure 959mb. This particular storm has continued to defy intensity guidance. Intensity is still harder to predict then forecast track with hurricanes.
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Old 09-07-2018, 07:43 PM
 
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7Sept18 11aHST/2pPDT/5pEDT: Estimated winds 110mph(175km/h), moving WNW 16mph(26km/h), pressure 968mb. Direct impacts to Hawaii next week still look likely:

Pacific - Olivia forms September 2, 2018-olivia1.jpg
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Old 09-08-2018, 07:52 AM
 
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8Sept18 2aPDT/5aEDT (7Sept 11pHST) - Estimated winds 90mph(150km/h), moving WNW 15mph(24km/h), pressure 980mb.
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Old 09-08-2018, 03:11 PM
 
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8Sept18 11aHST/2pPDT/5pEDT - Estimated winds 85mph(140km/h), moving W 15mph(24km/h), pressure 983mb.

Pacific - Olivia forms September 2, 2018-__o1.jpg
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Old 09-09-2018, 06:43 AM
 
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9Sept18 2aPDT/5aEDT (8Sept 11pHST) - Estimated winds 80mph(130km/h), moving W 16mph(26km/h), pressure 985mb. Olivia has crossed 140W which means responsibility transfers from the NHC to the CPHC for storm updates (same times) here: Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu, Hawai`i


Could make landfall on Hawaii as a Tropical Storm Tuesday night (local time)but at least keep moving out thereafter:
Pacific - Olivia forms September 2, 2018-__i23.jpg




Tropical Storm force winds (39+mph) could reach the islands sometime Tuesday:
Pacific - Olivia forms September 2, 2018-_223323.jpg
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Old 09-09-2018, 04:01 PM
 
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9Sept18 11aPDT/2pPDT/5pEDT - Estimated winds 75mph(120km/h), moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 988mb. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches/Warnings may be issued for Hawaii within the next 24hours.
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