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Old 09-22-2018, 08:56 AM
 
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22Sept18 11aEDT/AST: Invest 99L organized enough to become Tropical Storm Kirk in the far East Atlantic. Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving W 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1005mb.

Overall looks to head to the Caribbean late next week. Conditions favorable for strengthening next couple days but maybe not as ideal later next week but will watch for changes. Not much model support currently for something big. Too soon to know what happens after the Caribbean.

Wind speed model guidance suggest slow to not much strengthening next several days.
Atlantic - Kirk forms September 22, 2018-sdsd.jpg

Track guidance suggest it'll head straight for the Caribbean.
Atlantic - Kirk forms September 22, 2018-vaptuire2.jpg

There's also a lot of dust / dry air from the Saharan Desert that it'll have to contend with crossing side by side. If wraps some of this into it's core then that will limit strengthening and could weaken it.
Visible Satellite:
Atlantic - Kirk forms September 22, 2018-dd.jpg

Dust/particle map (orange, red, yellow's):
Atlantic - Kirk forms September 22, 2018-capedfddfdfdf.jpg


Official updates for Atlantic basin storms comes from the US National Hurricane Center based in Miami, FL. Updates are issued at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/AST (If Watches/Warnings issued then updates are also added at 2 & 8am/pmEDT/AST) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Cone map (Shows: Current storm wind field at storm center(orange: winds 39mph+, red: 74mph+), Classification (Black/white dots with letters: "D" = Depression, "S" = Tropical Storm, "H" = Cat1 or Cat2 Hurricane, "M" = Major Hurricane (Cat3+)), any coastal tropical Watches/Warnings, and the "cone" is where the center of the storm could be over time (it's NOT the size of the storm), effects of the storm can be felt outside this area:
Atlantic - Kirk forms September 22, 2018-capture1.jpg

Some Satellite imagery sources:
-Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
-GOESeast(GOES16): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php )
-WeatherNerds (includes ASCAT overlay option when available): https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/
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Old 09-22-2018, 02:42 PM
 
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What the heck is going on? Every 24 hours, the storms change.
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Old 09-23-2018, 04:01 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Kirk.

https://twitter.com/BillReh/status/1043981410854457348
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Old 09-24-2018, 05:35 AM
 
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24Sept18 5aEDT/AST: Estimated winds 35mph(55km/h), moving W 24mph(39km/h), pressure 1007mb. Downgraded to a Tropical Depression. Moving super quickly westward, may reach the Lesser Antilles in the E Caribbean in about 3 or 4 days. NHC keeps the storm weak through the week.
Atlantic - Kirk forms September 22, 2018-k1.jpg
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Old 09-24-2018, 11:19 AM
 
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24Sept18 11aEDT/AST: Kirk's center has opened up and is no longer classified as a Tropical cyclone. It is basically now a Tropical wave / trough with gale-force winds & scattered showers. It may regenerate over the next few days though but not the most ideal conditions ahead into the Caribbean. Unless it redevelops, and it may, then no more advisories will be issued. An archive of previous NHC advisories and graphics can be found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/KIRK.shtml?
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Old 09-26-2018, 05:09 AM
 
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26Sept18 5aEDT/AST - Kirk is back, Watches/Warnings up for some of the islands.
Atlantic - Kirk forms September 22, 2018-img_3928.png
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Old 09-26-2018, 09:56 AM
 
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26Sept18 11aEDT/AST: Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft measured 50mph(85km/h) winds, moving W 18mph(30km/h), pressure 1002mb. Storm may go over the E Caribbean islands Thursday night. But wind shear expected to become stronger over the storm as it enters the Caribbean, weakening it and NHC says eventually dissipating it in the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Warning (winds 39+mph expected within 36hours or less) for Barbados, St. Lucia, Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe.
Tropical Storm Watch (winds 39+mph possible within 36hours or less) for St. Vincent & Grenadines.

Rain of 4-6inches North Windward Islands & Southern Leeward Islands, isolated 10inches Martinique & Dominica.

Atlantic - Kirk forms September 22, 2018-img_3932.png
Atlantic - Kirk forms September 22, 2018-img_3933.png
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Old 09-27-2018, 10:28 AM
 
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Kirk approaching the islands and completely detaching itself from its storms, wind shear must be high:
https://twitter.com/gregpostel/statu...44901276348416
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Old 09-28-2018, 04:33 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Barbados flooding.

https://twitter.com/sxeishorty/statu...36165226270720
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Old 09-28-2018, 06:40 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1045822208319389698
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