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Old 09-29-2018, 08:10 PM
 
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29Sept18 2pPDT/5pEDT: Invest 96E has become Tropical Storm Sergio off the SSW Mexico coast. Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving W 12mph(19km/h), pressure 1006mb.

Has some organizing to do, and needs to form more of an inner core but then should strengthen thereafter this week fairly quickly it appears.

Official updates for East Pacific basin storms comes from the US National Hurricane Center based in Miami, FL. Updates are issued at 2 & 8am/pmPDT(5 & 11am/pmEDT) (If Watches/Warnings issued then updates are also added at 5 & 11am/pmPDT (2 & 8am/pmEDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Cone map (Shows: Current storm wind field at storm center(orange: winds 39mph+, red: 74mph+), Classification (Black/white dots with letters: "D" = Depression, "S" = Tropical Storm, "H" = Cat1 or Cat2 Hurricane, "M" = Major Hurricane (Cat3+)), any coastal tropical Watches/Warnings, and the "cone" is where the center of the storm could be over time (it's NOT the size of the storm), effects of the storm can be felt outside this area:
Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-img_3979.png

Some Satellite imagery sources:
-Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
-GOESeast(GOES16): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php
-WeatherNerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/
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Old 10-03-2018, 05:22 AM
 
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3Oct18 2aPDT/5aEDT: Estimated winds 115mph(185km/h), moving WNW 12mph(19km/h), pressure 965mb. Cat3 Hurricane. May continue to strengthen until end of the week. Some shear is over the system disrupting the core though with the eye open on the NW side but expected to subside shortly. Cooler waters and drier air on tap in a few days though expected to gradually start to weaken it starting in a few days.

Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-sss.jpg
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Old 10-03-2018, 05:57 PM
 
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3Oct18 2pPDT/5pEDT: Estimated winds 125mph(205km/h), moving NW 9mph(15km/h), pressure 955mb.
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Old 10-04-2018, 06:56 PM
 
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4Oct18 2pPDT/5pEDT: Estimated winds 130mph(215km/h), moving NW 9mph(15km/h), pressure 947mb. Cat4 hurricane.

Doesn't look like it'll be a problem for Hawaii, making a turn back to the North-East eventually.
Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s4.jpg

Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s5.jpg


Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s1.jpg

Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s2.jpg

Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s3.jpg
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Old 10-06-2018, 02:53 PM
 
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6Oct18 2pPDT/5pEDT: Estimated winds 125mph(205km/h), moving WSW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 950mb. Looks to make a turn back towards Baja region, may follow a similar path to Rosa, potentially effecting the SW US once again.

Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-track11.jpg

Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-track12.jpg

Intensity guidance suggest steady weakening in store for Sergio.
Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-track13.jpg
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Old 10-07-2018, 03:18 PM
 
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7Oct18 2pPDT/5pEDT: Estimated winds 100mph(155km/h), moving W 7mph(11km/h), pressure 971mb. Quite the eye last 24hours! Now around 100 miles across!

Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-12-6.jpg

Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-12-4.jpg

Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-12-5.jpg

Will have to watch for rain/flood potential into portions of the SW US next weekend:
Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-12-7.jpg
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Old 10-09-2018, 08:29 PM
 
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9Oct18 2pPDT/5pEDT: Estimated winds 70mph(110km/h), moving ENE 9mph(15km/h), pressure 990mb. Weakens to a Tropical Storm. Expected to continue weakening. Has made its turn back towards the coast.

Rains:
3-5inches, isolated 10inches N Baja & Sonora Mexico regions & into the Southern Plains and Ozarks of US. High flood risk. Some of these areas already had recent heavy rains from Rosa the other week.
Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s4.jpg


Larger swells will reach Baja Wednesday.

Should mainly be a rain maker with some Tropical Storm winds (39+mph) likely into portions of Baja but should continue to weaken over Mexico and no real winds to speak of into the US it would appear.
Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s1.jpg
Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s2.jpg


Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s3.jpg
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Old 10-12-2018, 08:38 PM
 
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12Oct18 2pPDT/5pEDT: Winds 35mph(55km/h), moving NE 25mph(41km/h), pressure 1000mb. Sergio officially became a remnant low. This is the last advisory from the NHC, an archive of previous advisories can be found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/SERGIO.shtml?

Evening radar:
Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s5.jpg

Past track:
Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s2.jpg

Flash flood risk today...shows chance of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of given location in those areas:
Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s3.jpg

And for Saturday and into Sunday:
Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s6.jpg

Possible scattered rain totals next 3 days:
Pacific - Sergio forms September 29, 2018-s4.jpg
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