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Old 10-08-2018, 08:06 AM
 
Location: northeast PA
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Looks like the Carolinas will be in for it again.
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Old 10-08-2018, 08:43 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by odessa3 View Post
Looks like the Carolinas will be in for it again.
Everyone but me.
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Old 10-08-2018, 09:00 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Major hurricane at landfall? Maybe.

https://twitter.com/jamiearnoldWMBF/...12589048700930
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Old 10-08-2018, 09:03 AM
 
Location: Nantahala National Forest, NC
27,091 posts, read 7,266,968 times
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Oh great...more rain for NC
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Old 10-08-2018, 09:39 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, North Carolina
2,097 posts, read 1,226,055 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greatblueheron View Post
Oh great...more rain for NC
Although I would expect some decent rain, this storm has more potential to be a bigger wind event than Florence, if the forecast holds.
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Old 10-08-2018, 10:28 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Latest Tracks..


Hurricane Forecast Model Output :: [Main]





11am Update: Hurricane force winds only extend 30 miles from center but TS force extend 175 miles out.
Going to be a Cat 3 in 24hrs. RAPID.


Quote:
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 84.9 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at
a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night,
followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward near the
western tip of Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is expected to move inland
over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,
and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
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Old 10-08-2018, 10:51 AM
 
4,263 posts, read 2,155,163 times
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And the potential storm surge values continue to rise as well, newest updated interactive maps just out...thats a large area of 9ft or more possible: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...ation#contents

Official surge heights given for Michael shown on these maps are considered to be the reasonable 'worst case scenario' values that could occur given the current storm forecast and timing with consideration of shoreline features at high tide. As the storm forecast is tweaked each time, the surge values and locations will be as well.

Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-img_4123.jpg
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-img_4125.jpg
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-img_4126.jpg
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-img_4124.jpg

Edit adding: a large area will be affected by surge because as water is pushed up into this corner of the Gulf it will have no where to go but up.
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Old 10-08-2018, 01:17 PM
 
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The lagoon as i call it aways gets high water with heavy wind in that part of FL.
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Old 10-08-2018, 01:37 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,081 posts, read 56,526,146 times
Reputation: 12748
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049382138255167488
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Old 10-08-2018, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,081 posts, read 56,526,146 times
Reputation: 12748
This is why gas runs out. People filling up multiple cans last minute. They should mandate a limit when your within 24hrs because gas stations cant get tankers to come in every hour. I think.

https://twitter.com/reneebeninate/st...81032821182464
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