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Old 10-09-2018, 06:14 AM
 
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And here's some more specific possible rain totals:
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1049631334514208768
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Old 10-09-2018, 06:18 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
As I understand it, the storm surge predictions are always worst case scenario. The areas most likely won't see the max of these ranges.
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Old 10-09-2018, 06:27 AM
 
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Surge values are indeed reasonably could happen worst case scenario given current storm forecast. This is what officials have to plan to. When water does rise, authorities will not be out making rescues in surge like you see in inland flooding. This area of the Gulf is susceptible to higher surges due to its shallow coast line.

Personally I prefer thus interactive map because it shows the surge for more inland features such as rivers and bays better: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...ation#contents
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Old 10-09-2018, 07:09 AM
 
Location: indianapolis.
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I live in Indianapolis now, but consider Santa Rosa Beach, FL my home. I'm so worried for my family and friends. Most of them are being smart and leaving this morning, because they all live in red surge zones. My sister just dropped her 3 month old baby girl off with the in-laws to take her away. She can't leave because she's a nurse.

Ughhhh so much to stress about and I'm not even home!!!

Last edited by lunalvr; 10-09-2018 at 07:18 AM..
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Old 10-09-2018, 07:19 AM
 
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From the official storm surge group of the NHC:
https://twitter.com/nhc_surge/status...50107099111428
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Old 10-09-2018, 07:34 AM
 
Location: In Miami but, Inside the Resistance !!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
I am not gonna get anything. At most under .25" unless it tracks a 100 miles more to the east. Wanna make a bet on the rain?
Nope...not ever a gambler or into bets
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Old 10-09-2018, 10:31 AM
 
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Waters starting to slowly rise as onshore winds help push water towards land.
https://twitter.com/ocsoalerts/statu...85684322222081
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Old 10-09-2018, 10:32 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by motordavid View Post
^ +1...
This forum and its knowledgeable, quality posters is the go to place for info about the storms.
I appreciate the info and the excellent posters data and opins!
GL, mD
Me, too.
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Old 10-09-2018, 10:50 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Waters starting to slowly rise as onshore winds help push water towards land.
https://twitter.com/ocsoalerts/statu...85684322222081
I live in Venice FL, which is much closer to the hurricane. Hundreds of miles closer.

We have NO storm surge. How does Shalimar have storm surge today????
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Old 10-09-2018, 11:05 AM
 
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Looks like winds are heading away from shore W coast of FL and parallel or slightly into the coast along the N Gulf coast shore lines. That flooding image above may also be Choctawhatchee Bay being pushed generally Westward. Of corse we don't know what it looks like at normal tide levels. Such a broad wind field across the NE Gulf is enough to begin moving water, even if winds overall lite well away from the storm.
Actual wind obs:
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-img_4172.png

Visual representation generally of overall wind field (and storm spins counter-clockwise):
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-img_4174.jpg

We saw similar with Irma last year with the broad wind field pushing water away from W FL for a time.
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