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1Sept18 5aEDT/AST: Invest 90L organized enough to warrant the classification of PTC6, then Tropical Depression 6, now has organized enough to finally become Tropical Storm Florence in the far East Atlantic. Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving WNW 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1003mb.
Tropical Storm Warnings remain up for portions of the Cape Verde islands (Santiago, Fogo & Brava) but will likely be dropped soon as the system pulls away.
Expected to eventually recurve out to sea in the central Atlantic. Models keep ticking a little more westward each update it seems but still no threat elsewhere for now and still expected to curve out to sea.
Official updates for Atlantic basin storms comes from the US National Hurricane Center based in Miami, FL. Updates are issued at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/AST (If Watches/Warnings issued then updates are also added at 2 & 8am/pmEDT/AST) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Cone map (Shows: Current storm wind field at storm center(orange: winds 39mph+, red: 74mph+), Classification (Black/white dots with letters: "D" = Depression, "S" = Tropical Storm, "H" = Cat1 or Cat2 Hurricane, "M" = Major Hurricane (Cat3+)), any coastal tropical Watches/Warnings, and the "cone" is where the center of the storm could be over time (it's NOT the size of the storm), effects of the storm can be felt outside this area:
1Sept18 8aEDT/AST: Storm stats unchanged, Tropical Storm Warnings for Cape Verde Islands dropped as storm pulls away.
Euro model decided to jump ship and not turn Florence out to sea now. We'll have to wait and see if other models join it or if it comes back in line woth a curve out to sea. Big High pressure ridge to North of the storm currently, curve would come from it reaching outer corner of its influence and curving up and out. But occasionally they miss their turn. We shall see. Its riding pretty far North compared to storms that affect the Caribbean or US so still likely to be swept out to sea but its there so we watch.
Hurricanes find the path of least resistance. So it will matter what that Blocking high to the north does and the speed and strength of a front coming across the U.S does. Lots of pieces as usual.
3Sept18 5aEDT/AST: Estimated winds 60mph(95km/h), moving WNW 16mph(26km/h), pressure 999mb. Safe to say uncertainty in track for next week is high, but that is over a week out so wouldn't worry too much about it yet, but definitely keep an eye on it. NHC going with slight increase in strength today, then shear weakens it some, followed by better environment to strengthen once more later this week.
Bermuda is most at risk currently but again that would be late this coming weekend if it did.
I imagine given the uncertainty and wide model guidance split that they'll start recon missions maybe later this week to sample the atmosphere over the West Atlantic in order to put better data into the models but haven't seen anything on it yet. Might eventually see an increase in weather balloon launches as well across the US if track remains uncertain by this weekend. But again we're a good ways out in time so models may come into better agreement later in the week.
But for now from FL to Nova Scotia and including Bermuda should keep an eye on it as the week progresses but no reason to worry this far out in time.
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