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Old 10-07-2018, 11:07 AM
 
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7Oct18 12pCDT/1EDT: On Sunday Tropical Depression 14 has been named Tropical Storm Michael near the Yucatán Peninsula & Western tip of Cuba, moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Formally was invest 91L, then Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 (PTC14), then TD14.

Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving North 5mph(7km/h), pressure 1004mb.

This is an evolving forecast for this system, be prepared for sudden changes. Either way, it is very likely a Hurricane is heading for the US Gulf coast then inland across portions of the SE US later this week.

Official updates for Atlantic basin storms comes from the US National Hurricane Center based in Miami, FL. Updates are issued at 4 & 10am/pmCDT(5 & 11am/pmEDT) (If Watches/Warnings issued then updates are also added at 1 & 7am/pmCDT (2 & 8am/pmEDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Cone map (Shows: Current storm wind field at storm center(orange: winds 39mph+, red: 74mph+), Classification (Black/white dots with letters: "D" = Depression, "S" = Tropical Storm, "H" = Cat1 or Cat2 Hurricane, "M" = Major Hurricane (Cat3+)), any coastal tropical Watches/Warnings, and the "cone" is where the center of the storm could be over time (it's NOT the size of the storm), effects of the storm can be felt outside this area:
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-img_4089.png

Some Satellite imagery sources:
-Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
-GOESeast(GOES16): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php )
-WeatherNerds (includes ASCAT overlay option when available): https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/
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Old 10-07-2018, 02:03 PM
 
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7Oct18 3pCDT/4pEDT - aircraft recon in storm finding two centers - it may be jumping centers to where higher amount of convection/storms are which is common in weaker systems. The center closest to convection coming in with preliminary pressure 999mb and winds just to its East of there of 55mph-ish or so. So steadily intensifying still even if more organization is needed.

Follow along in near real time: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-img_4095.png
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Old 10-07-2018, 03:47 PM
 
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7Oct18 4pCDT/5pEDT: Winds 50mph(85km/h), moving NNE 3mph(6km/h), pressure 999mb. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 205miles(335km) from storm center, mainly its East side. Expected to become a Hurricane Monday or Tuesday.

Current Warnings:
-Tropical Storm Warning (winds 39+mph within 24hours or less these locations now) Tulum to Cabo Catoche (includes Cozumel) Mexico and Pinar del Rio & the Isle of Youth Cuba.

Rains:
-3-7inches, isolated 12inches W Cuba.
-2-4inches Yucatan Peninsula, Belize.
--Life-threatening floods/mudslides possible.

-These rains will move up into the US as we go through the week. .**This will be track dependent and continue to adjust, do NOT focus on specific points/locations yet, but note the potential that is building**, but in general, preliminary guidance suggest scattered totals of:
NOAA current 7-day chart:
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-12-8.jpg

Euro showing possible 12inches plus some locations **again totals are all track dependent!**
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018100712_135_508_220.png

Some areas of the Carolina's are still dealing with affects from Florence flooding. Any additional rainfall is not welcome. On the other hand other portions of SC and GA really need the rains.

Storm Surge
The threat for storm surge is increasing for the US Gulf Coast. Surge is like a really high tide with waves on top, and stretches inland up rivers, bays, and sometimes even reverse up through street storm drains, etc. It is on average the most deadly part of a hurricane. Surge is generally highest with a hurricane at the storm center and points Eastward of it with onshore winds pushing water in as the storm makes landfall. It starts rising hours before the center arrives though. It can vary greatly location to location based on many factors such as barrier islands, shapes of bays, high or low tide times, etc. The shallower the waters at the coast and the stronger the storm, then in general the greater the surge height.

Official storm surge maps for Michael will be released once Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch/Warnings are posted for the US coast line which will likely be Monday or Tuesday, at the 5 or 11 am/pm EDT updates. These storm surge maps will be updated as needed about 30 to 90minutes AFTER each main 5 & 11 am/pm EDT update.

Tornado:
Small brief lived tornadoes are very common in land-falling tropical systems as rain bands come onshore and move inland. They are mostly found on the NE side/corner of the storm. The threat for these will increase as the storm approaches the US Gulf coast and well after landfall into the SE US.

Winds:

Too early to know what winds will be with storm, and will be very track dependent. Models have been increasing their wind speeds for the storm with a few bringing it to Cat2 or Cat3 at landfall now. It is still too early to know what it will be. With a quick moving storm strong winds may carry well inland becoming a tree/power concern. Please keep an eye on the storm if anywhere in the SE US.


Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-12-9.jpg

Intensity Guidance modeling:
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-12-10.jpg

Euro main model looks like a Cat2/3 into the FL coast:
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-12-11.jpg

Euro model members that make up the main model (Ensembles):
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-12-12.jpg

The official cone map (where center of storm could be in time) by the humans at NHC who actually have a pretty good track record:
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-12-13.jpg

And possible arrival time of Tropical Storm force winds (39+mph) which is considered the you are done preparing/evacuating and where you will be to ride this storm out threshold as those winds usher in power/tree problems.
Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-12-14.jpg

NHC now going with a 100mph Cat2 hurricane at landfall. This may continue to adjust, please keep up to date with changing conditions of this system.
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Old 10-07-2018, 05:11 PM
 
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Hope it goes a little more east so i can get some real rain. As the track is it will be too far to the west to do much for me.
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Old 10-07-2018, 05:17 PM
 
Location: 30461
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I'm right in the bulls eye of that rain. For some reason, though, I'm doubtful it'll be that much because the storm is expected to pick up speed as it moves inland across Georgia.
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Old 10-07-2018, 05:32 PM
 
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I just hope it can come around 100 miles closer to me. 200+ miles is too far to the west while 100 miles west would give much better rain chances and still far enough away to not get strong winds.
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Old 10-07-2018, 05:53 PM
 
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7Oct18 7pCDT/8pEDT: Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving N 5mph(7km/h), pressure 997mb.

Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-1-13.jpg

Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-system.jpg

And Tropical Tidbits has just posted an evening discussion on Michael: https://youtu.be/gPtJJZhFmCA
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Old 10-08-2018, 04:33 AM
 
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8Oct18 4aCDT/5aEDT: Winds 70mph(110km/h), moving N 7mph(11km/h), pressure 983mb. Pressure has dropped a large amount overnight = additional strengthening likely to begin shortly, hurricane soon today (pressure falls = winds increase thereafter, pressure rises = winds decrease thereafter).

Changes:
-Hurricane Warning (winds 74+mph expected, in this particular case, within 12hours or less) for W Cuba area Pinar del Rio
-Hurricane Watch (winds 74+mph possible within 48hours or less, make preparations now) AL/FL border to Suwanee River, FL
-Tropical Storm Watch (Tropical Storm winds 39-73mph possible within 48hours or less, make preparations now) Suwanee River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL (includes Tampa)
-Tropical Storm Watch AL/FL border to MS/AL border.
-Storm Surge Watch (possible life-threatening inundation of water from the coast moving inland in 48hours or less) Navarre, FL to Anna Maria Island FL (includes Tampa).

Some of these areas will be narrowed down better as we get closer to landfall.

May make landfall as a Cat2 or Cat3 hurricane.

The NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico is very susceptible to storm surge with its very shallow coast lines.
Current Storm Surge numbers:
"The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Indian Pass to Crystal River...7-11 ft
Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...4-7 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft"

An interactive storm surge map can be found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...ation#contents

**These numbers may change as track is narrowed down more, stay aware of possible changes**

Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-test-1.jpg

Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-test-2.jpg

Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018-test-3.jpg
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Old 10-08-2018, 04:48 AM
 
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Way to far to the west to bring me any real rain. Hope it adjust east around 100 miles.
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Old 10-08-2018, 06:01 AM
 
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8Oct18 7aCDT/8aEDT: Winds 70mph(110km/h), moving N 7mph(11km/h), pressure 982mb. Aircraft recon currently in storm showing pressure has leveled off, now we're just waiting for convection/winds to increase this morning in response to the overnight pressure drop. Recon measuring winds at flight level around 80mph just SE of storm center but lower at surface level. These will start finding their way to the surface soon and we should see a bump up to Cat1 hurricane by or even before the next advisory thats due out at 10aCDT/11aEDT, if not then will still likely see upgrade to hurricane at some point today.
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