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Old 10-22-2018, 07:20 PM
 
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Interesting!
https://twitter.com/nwscharlestonsc/...28190000123905
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Old 10-23-2018, 06:16 AM
 
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23Oct18 5aPDT/7aCDT/8aEDT Estimated winds 130mph(215km/h), moving N 5mph(7km/h), pressure 945mb. Storm center point about 55miles (85km) WSW from Las Islas Marias island Mexico, and about 150miles(245km) SSW of Mazatlan Mexico. Hurricane force winds (74+mph) extend up to 35miles(55km) from
Storm center point, Tropical Storm winds (39-73mph) just starting to reach along the mainland Mexico coast extending about 125miles (205km) from center.

High storm surge expected near and to the South of where the eye/center comes ashore tonight, NHC saying likely in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit region. We don't have surge maps for Mexico like the US coast has unfortunately. From what I understand the mountainous terrain and deeper coast further south usually keep surge not as much as a problem, but San Blas northward the immediate coast appears more flat with barrier island type coast lines and small bays and such which are all very susceptible to surge.

Rainfall 6-12inches, isolated 18inches possible Jalisco, W Nayarit, S Sinaloa & S Durango, Mexico regions. The mointains just off the coast can really ring out moisture effectively from tropical systems and the mountains will very rapidly weaken the winds quickly tonight. 2-4 inches, isolated 6inches, Durango, parts of Zacateca, SE Chihuahua & Coahuila. Flash flooding & landslide threat. Additional rains just after from remnants of Vicente also possible some locations this week.

Storm has dry air entangling into it, S / SE eye wall may be open, and has kind of been stuck in an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle several hours now. Air Force reconnaissance plane en route to check out true condition of storm. Storm slowly but steadily weakening, more rapid weakening expected as approaches coast tonight but still should be a powerful storm into the region with dangerous storm surge, winds, and heavy rains.

Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-img_4607.png
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Old 10-23-2018, 10:03 AM
 
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23Oct18 8aPDT/10aCDT/11aEDT Estimated winds 125mph(205km/h), moving NNE 6mph(9km/h), pressure 966mb. Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured around 115mph winds while ago as they flew NE to SW quadrants of storm but had to maneuver around the islands storm eye wall is starting to come over so likely not in the strongest winds plus were downwind of the islands so winds can be hidden/altered by mountainous island interaction. Core to pass over islands shortly, landfall on mainland Mexico tonight.


Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-img_4612.png

https://twitter.com/nws/status/1054758772717965312
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Old 10-23-2018, 11:11 AM
 
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iCyclone (Josh) is out chasing Willa:
https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1054781908339646464
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Old 10-23-2018, 07:13 PM
 
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https://www.click2houston.com/weathe...impact-houston
We're expecting rain from Willa in Houston!

HOUSTON - Major Hurricane Willa in the eastern Pacific is poised to make landfall Tuesday night in Mexico, then it makes a mad dash for Houston.
Willa is a Category 3 storm with winds of 120 mph as of 4 o'clock Tuesday afternoon. It will make landfall just south of Mazatlan. From there, the storm will move northeast and into southern Texas by Wednesday. The remnants of Willa will move across the Houston region starting Wednesday night and be to the east of the area by Thursday.
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Old 10-23-2018, 07:30 PM
 
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23Oct18 8pCDT/9pEDT: And landfall has occurred near Isla Del Bosque just S of Escuinapa, Mexico and S of Mazatlan, Mexico.

23Oct18 6pPDT/8pCDT/9pEDT stats:estimated winds near the eye/center 120mph(195km/h), moving NNE 10mph(17km/h), pressure 965mb. Storm will rapidly weaken this evening now.


Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-img_4627.jpg
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Old 10-23-2018, 08:51 PM
 
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23Oct18 8pPDT/10pCDT/11pEDT: Estimated winds near the eye/center 115mph(185km/h), moving NE 17mph(28km/h), pressure 970mb. Hurricane force winds (74+mph) still extend about 35miles(55km) from storm center, Tropical Storm force winds (39-73mph range) extend up to 115miles(185km).

As the storm is starting to enter the mountains tonight the NHC notes: "Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater."

But the mountains will also serve to severely and quickly weaken the storm overnight. Torrential rains with high likelihood of flash flooding and landslides will continue overnight especially in mountainous terrain.

Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-sss.jpg
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Old 10-24-2018, 04:40 AM
 
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24Oct18 2aPDT/4aCDT/5aEDT: Estimated winds 35mph(55km/h), moving NE 25mph(41km/h), pressure 1000mb. Tropical Depression now, or just a scattered rain maker. Soon to dissipate. Remnants to head into S Texas and the N Gulf of Mexico coast and help supply moisture for this weekends East Coast Nor-Easter which you can find info on in the general Weather thread of City Data.

Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-catch.jpg
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Old 10-24-2018, 08:41 AM
 
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24Oct18 8aPDT/10aCDT/11aEDT - Willa has officially become a remnant Low pressure system. No more advisories will be issued. An archive of previous advisories can be found here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/WILLA.shtml?
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