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Old 10-21-2018, 07:48 AM
 
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20Oct18 8aPDT/10aCDT/11aEDT: Tropical Storm Willa forms just off the SW Mexico coast.

21Oct18 2aPDT/4aCDT/5aEDT Willa has rapidly intensified to now estimated winds 85mph(140km/h), moving NW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 984mb. Cat1 hurricane. No current Watches/Warnings but those will likely be coming soon, later today or early Monday for portions of the W Mexico coast. Storm is expected to turn back towards the coast, approaching the coast late Tuesday, possibly towards Puerto Vallarta / Mazatlan Mexico general region. Very compact storm with hurricane force winds (74+mph) only extending out to 10miles(20km) from storm center, Tropical Storm force winds (39+mph) only extend out up to 45miles(75km) from storm center.

Small systems can quickly and unexpectedly increase/decrease their winds. Currently expected to continue rapid intensification and became a Cat3 or Cat4 by Tuesday before approaching the coast, but possibly weakening though just as it approaches land NHC currently says due to upwelling colder waters underneath itself and interacting with an approaching trough. Please keep an eye out for changes to the forecast. Wouldn't take but a few hours difference to have a stronger versus weaker storm approaching land in these cases sometimes.

Eventually Willa's remnants / blob of leftover moisture may head across S / SE Texas and help play a role in potential coastal storm Nor-Easter up the US East coast next weekend, but that part of discussion will likely be found in the regular Weather thread on CityData versus this thread.

Heavy rains near/along the coast likely, EURO model rain totals just through Wednesday mid day shown, and Vicente will also be following Willa into the region dumping additional rains this week as well after some of these potential totals:
Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-w1.jpg


Official updates for East Pacific basin storms comes from the US National Hurricane Center based in Miami, FL. Updates are issued at 2 & 8am/pmPDT(5 & 11am/pmEDT) (If Watches/Warnings issued then updates are also added at 5 & 11am/pmPDT (2 & 8am/pmEDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Cone map (Shows: Current storm wind field at storm center(orange: winds 39mph+, red: 74mph+), Classification (Black/white dots with letters: "D" = Depression, "S" = Tropical Storm, "H" = Cat1 or Cat2 Hurricane, "M" = Major Hurricane (Cat3+)), any coastal tropical Watches/Warnings, and the "cone" is where the center of the storm could be over time (it's NOT the size of the storm), effects of the storm can be felt outside this area:
Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-w2.jpg



Some Satellite imagery sources:
-Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
-GOESeast(GOES16): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php
-WeatherNerds: https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/


Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-w3.jpg

Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-w4.jpg
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:24 PM
 
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21Oct18 11aPDT/1pCDT/2pEDT Estimated winds 105mph(165km/h), moving NW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 971mb. Continues to intensify, Cat2 hurricane now.

Hurricane Watch (winds 74+mph possible) possible San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico.
Tropical Storm Watch (winds between 39-73mph possible) Playa Perula to San Blas, Mexico.

Storm surge will be possible along portions of the W Mexico coast later Tuesday into Tuesday night. High swells will approach the coast line early this week. Rainfall of 5-10inches, isolated 15inches possible in Western Jalisco, W Nayarit, S Sinaloa Mexico regions. Rainfall 2-4inches, isolated 6inches Zacateca, Durandgo, SW Chihuahua, Coahuila Mexico. Flood and mudslide threats.

Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-w5.jpg
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Old 10-21-2018, 04:01 PM
 
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21Oct18 2pPDT/4pCDT/5pEDT Estimated winds 115mph(185km/h), moving NNW 6mph(9km/h), pressure 963mb. Now Cat3 hurricane. Forecast for Cat4 now bumped up to tonight or sometime Monday, may have winds around 150mph by Monday afternoon. Weakening expected to begin by early Tuesday, landfall as a hurricane late Tuesday. Hurricane force winds extend up to 25miles (35km), Tropical Storm winds 80miles (130km) from storm center. Storm currently located about 250miles(400km) SSW of Cabo Corrientes Mexico.

Total Tropical Watch/Warnings:
-Hurricane Watch San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico.
-Tropical Storm Warning Playa Perula to San Blas Mexico.
-Tropical Storm Watch North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya Mexico.

Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-21hh.jpg
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Old 10-21-2018, 06:11 PM
 
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21Oct18 5pPDT/7pCDT/8pEDT Estimated winds 140mph(220km/h), moving NNW 6mph(9km/h), pressure 946mb. Cat4 already. Wow!
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Old 10-21-2018, 06:30 PM
 
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https://twitter.com/jacksillin/statu...63941818019840
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Old 10-22-2018, 05:51 AM
 
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22Oct18 5aPDT/7aCDT/8aEDT Estimated winds 155mph(250km/h), moving N 7mph(11km/h), pressure 931mb. Border line Cat4/5.

Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-img_4578.png

Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-img_4576.jpg

Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-img_4577.jpg
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Old 10-22-2018, 08:06 AM
 
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US Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is on its way to determine true intensity of Willa. It could be a Cat5. Follow along in near real time here: (just left, likely from Biloxi, MS US. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

But it's expected to start weakening by early Tuesday prior to landfall late Tuesday.
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Old 10-22-2018, 08:53 AM
 
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22Oct18 8aPDT/10aCDT/11aEDT Estimated winds 160mph(260km/h), moving N 7mph(11km/h), pressure 925mb. Satellite estimates support Cat5 intensity. Aircraft reconnaissance en-route will arrive later today for actual measurements.
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Old 10-22-2018, 11:33 AM
 
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Hurricane Hunter US Air Force reconnaissance aircraft turned around just as they reached outer edge of Willa. That would suggest mechanical issue. But they're halfway back across Mexico presumably returning back to base in Mississippi.
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Old 10-22-2018, 07:14 PM
 
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22Oct18 5pPDT/7pCDT/8pEDT Estimated winds 150mph(240km/h), moving N 8mph(13km/h), pressure 933mb. Cat4 Hurricane. Likely peaked in intensity earlier today.

Pacific - Willa forms October 20, 2018-img_4605.png

And according to the microwave imagery in this post the storm center is opening up due to shear and weakening.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1054539324304187392
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