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Old 07-09-2019, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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New Euro... Strong winds and a ton of rain into LA


https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/s...60683166441472
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Old 07-09-2019, 06:55 PM
 
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9Jul19 8pEDT/7pCDT, Atlantic:

Quick summary: Tropical Depression may form Wed/Thurs, drifts West, strengthens, Tropical Storm - Hurricane and/or Storm Surge Watches may go up Wednesday.

Long version:
NHC ups chance of development of invest 92L to high 90% chance. Low level circulation (Closest to the earth's surface) currently near Tallahassee, FL. Mid-level (higher up in the atmosphere) center West of Tampa, FL. These need to become better aligned closer together for a storm to form. A lot of convection(storms) firing up across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico today. Weak disorganized systems, like 92L currently, can jump their centers several times to under more robust convection groups. This may or may not occur several times, but happens, so FYI.

Likely Tropical Depression (winds 38mph or less, a rain maker essentially) forms Wednesday or Thursday. US Air Force reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently scheduled to check out the system in person Wednesday afternoon for better actual measurements and to feed more data into the models. Models still jump around some until a storm system actually forms (back to above where mentioned centers can jump to other areas, that affects the models, and can be hours between runs depending what model). I think models will have a much better idea late Wednesday or sometime Thursday.

We may see a PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) declared tomorrow. This wouldn't be a named storm but a newer-ish way (a few years going on now) to issue cone map, watches/warnings, and gets things in motion providing additional lead time to emergency managers and the public before a Tropical Depression or named storm forms. We may not get PTC issued and have Tropical Depression declared instead. Depends what the storm does tomorrow and how organized it gets but one of those will likely be declared tomorrow (Wednesday). End result is the same, would get cone map, watches/warnings, etc published if one of those issued.

Watches may be posted sometime Wednesday. Weather Watches mean potential, be prepared, Warnings means occurring or imminent. This is a timing based issuance so they have to come out Wed or by early Thursday if the storm starts to develop.

Tropical Storm Watch means TS winds possible within 48 hours or less (winds somewhere between 39 and 73mph) (A warning would mean somewhere in that wind range expected within 36hours or less).

Hurricane Watch means hurricane force winds possible within 48 hours or less (winds 74+mph) (A warning would mean those winds expected within 36hours or less).

Storm Surge Watch means the possibility of life threatening inundation as waters rise from the coast within 48hours or less. (A Warning would mean there is a danger of life-threatening inundation within 36hours or less). Follow all evacuation orders, storm surge is the number one killer in hurricanes in the US. I believe the threshold for issuance of a storm surge watch/warning is for around 3ft or higher.

NWS New Orleans this evening issued a projected flood gauge for Mississippi River at Carrollton for 19ft for late this week given the possibility the storm pushes water up while preventing the Mississippi River from draining into the Gulf and stated the city is protected to 20ft and that a great deal of uncertainty regarding potential impacts with the storm still.

Keep in mind flooding scattered rains will be a big story with this system, but that may grow to include wind/surge if strengthens. Once you get a named Tropical Storm winds of around 40mph or higher and saturated grounds is when you start to see scattered downed trees and power outages here and there fyi.

No surprises expected overnight, later tomorrow though at some point, it's going to get busy.
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Old 07-09-2019, 11:13 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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LA landfall coming. And with no shear, dust i can see this thing strengthening fast

https://twitter.com/TARCweather/stat...11454826655744
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Old 07-10-2019, 05:09 AM
 
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10Jul19 7aEDT/6aCDT - invest 92L in NE Gulf of Mexico: no surprises overnight, slowly organizing, becoming more consolidated. Likely will have Potential Tropical Cyclone released shortly today with cone map & Tropical Storm & Storm Surge Watches, perhaps Hurricane Watches as well for portions of Gulf coast (gives advanced lead time). Named storm likely within 24-36 hours I imagine.
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Old 07-10-2019, 06:01 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Lightning in New Orleans this morning. Radar not crazy impressive but If you look close you'll see rain moving northwards off Florida and moving southwards off Louisiana. There is a spin out there. Just large right now.


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Old 07-10-2019, 07:16 AM
 
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10Jul19 9aEDT/8aCDT - well that escalated quickly in New Orleans - Flash Flood warning, tornado Warning and severe thunderstorm warning. Several streets flooding now from heavy rainfall.
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Old 07-10-2019, 08:34 AM
 
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10Jul19 - The NHC will begin issuing cone map and storm Watches at 11aEDT/10aCDT today on invest 92L, or PTC2 as it will now be referenced as. PTC = Potential Tropical Cyclone and as mentioned above doesn’t mean anything has changed, just means high confidence in something forming and its time to issue Watches.
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Old 07-10-2019, 09:06 AM
 
Location: San Antonio
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Almost all models that shifted east yesterday have now shifted west again. This thing is a complicated mess.
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Old 07-10-2019, 10:04 AM
 
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10Jul19 11aEDT/10aCDT - invest 92L is now PTC2 (Potential Tropical Cyclone Two). It doesn't get a name yet because its still a disorganized blob spinning in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once it gets an actual name someone can start a new thread on here for it. Once it forms a valid more vertically stacked center then it'll get a name (next Atlantic name will be Barry) if winds are 39mph or higher. An Air Force reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly in and around the storm this afternoon which will provide actual measurements (you'll be able to view these in near real-time here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ once it takes off) and data will feed more reliable info into the models for tonight.

The PTC allows the NHC to publish a cone map and issue storm Watches as needed to add valuable lead time for emergency management and the public. Here is the latest:

-Tropical Storm Watch Pearl River (MS/LA border) to Morgan City, LA.
-Storm Surge Watch for 3 to 5ft of surge (surge is the height of water above the normal tide cycle heights, so greatest effect is seen if peak surge occurs at high tide) Pearl River (MS/LA border) to Morgan City, LA.
-These Watches will expand westward over the next day or two as they are time based issued, and eventually will change to warnings.

NHC mentions on their discussion page (here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../101457.shtml? ) says only slow strengthening is expected for the next 24-36hours but after 48hours more quick intensification is possible. So future strength subject to change. NHC currently has it making landfall likely as a Cat1 hurricane into the Louisiana or Texas coast.

Cone map shown below. Note: the cone ONLY shows where the center of the storm could be over time. The cone gets wider, NOT due to storm size/strength but represents the uncertainty in the forecast track.

2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-w2.jpg

And possible arrival times of Tropical Storm force winds (39mph or higher)...40mph is enough to start scattered tree/power lines downed when grounds are saturated.
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-w1.jpg
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Old 07-10-2019, 10:52 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Loop last 4hrs. Looks like New Orleans and the Southeast LA coast will get a break now. I see Tornado Warnings were issued (red boxes)

Looks so disorganized. Doesn't look like a cyclone yet.

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