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Old 07-10-2019, 11:29 AM
 
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US Air Force Hurricane Hunter recon plane just left Biloxi, MS. Can follow along in near real time here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
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Old 07-10-2019, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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6 inches in 1 hour? Yup, that would do it.

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/...51142832988161



If all those sewer drains were free and clear of debris, our man made small drains still wouldn't be able to handle 6" in 1 hour. Funny how we built & think we know it all but it's our own fault flooding like this happens, not the climates, not the atmosphere, not the rain, not the weather, not the storm... it's all because we don't know how to properly divert enough water to prevent this and we keep paving and building structures so water has less room to span out.
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Old 07-10-2019, 07:57 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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NAM model must have read The Day After Tomorrow script. Lmao. 885mb?

https://twitter.com/AaronPerryWx/sta...25566836199426
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Old 07-10-2019, 08:36 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
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Looking like it could get rough here in Alexandria though if the storm goes to my east the impact will be lessened.

NWS is showing "tropical storm conditions possible" for me right now.



https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...7#.XSaf7-hKiM8
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Old 07-10-2019, 08:46 PM
 
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10Jul19 11pEDT/10pCDT:
Central Pacific: all quiet
East Pacific: low 10% chance of development from disorganized showers South of Mexico
Atlantic:
-About time of year we start watching tropical waves / disturbances moving off Africa into the Atlantic, nothing just right this minute though.
-Will post on PTC 2 as 11p advisory comes out shortly.

For those not familiar the earlier NAM model reading is obviously off, so just for fun.
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Old 07-10-2019, 09:28 PM
 
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10Jul19 11pEDT/10pCDT: PTC2 (Potential Tropical Cyclone Two)

Quick summary: Named Tropical Storm Thurs AM, Hurricane Friday, landfall Saturday (early if more East, late if more West), Watches may expand, Some Watches become Warnings Thurs (time based issuance).

Detailed Summary:
Winds 30mph, moving WSW 9mph, pressure 1009mb. Aircraft recon finding multiple weak centers earlier today (disorganized system). Appears though we're finally getting more of a spin around a more constant area of convection (storms) though this evening and visible satellite the entire blob is starting to spin with more of a hint of a classic look about it. It's coming together now.

Tropical Depression or named Storm by morning (would be 'Barry'). Cat1 Hurricane by sometime Friday likely. Possibility to increase winds into Saturday. Models mostly go with landfall somewhere along the Louisiana coastline Saturday currently.

Watches (issued earlier this evening):
-Storm Surge Watch (surge 3ft+) MS/LA border (Pearl River) west to Intracoastal City, LA for potential 3-6ft.
-Hurricane Watch (winds 74+mph) mouth of Mississippi River west to Cameron, LA.
-Tropical Storm Watch (winds between 39-73mph) MS/LA border (Pearl River) west to mouth of Mississippi River.

--These Watches may be expanded Thurs.
--Watch means those conditions possible within 48hours or less. A warning would mean imminent/expected/occurring within 36hours or less so these will change to a Warning Thursday (time based issuance).
--Surge Watches/Warnings are issued for water potential to be 3ft or higher above normally dry ground where you're standing but does NOT include levee areas (see local officials for that). Final height will depend upon storm strength(wind speed/pressure), final track, movement speed, angle of approach, shape of coastline, high or low tide, etc. Surge is defined as the rise in water above the normal tide height and can travel across land from the beach, up bays and rivers and anything connected to ocean draining waterways, even street storm drains. It is typically highest as the storm eye/center is making landfall on the NorthEast corner of the eye and less from that point but begins to rise several hours before center arrives cutting off escape routes early. If told to evacuate, DO IT! Here is current interactive potential surge map: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...ation#contents

NWS New Orleans saying Mississippi River, already running high through New Orleans, may be pushed up higher by surge blocking water from entering the Gulf plus added heavy rains trying to drain. Potential exist to reach top of levees in the lower walled sections of the region. Please listen to local officials as potential situation evolves!

Tropical Storm winds (between 39mph and 73mph) may reach SE LA Friday morning, SW LA Friday evening. You need to have your plan, supplies, evacuated (if choose to or told to) in place by then. 39mph doesn't sound like much, and its not, but saturated soils and the wear and tear for hours even at that speed is when you start seeing scattered trees and power lines downed, so you want to be off the roads then.

Slow storm movement likely to dump over a foot of rain some areas from the coast and well inland into the lower Mississippi Valley, most likely to occur from near and east of the storm center (subject to change based on final storm structure, but heavy rain is coming somewhere regardless).

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-10-2019 at 09:40 PM..
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Old 07-11-2019, 04:36 AM
 
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11Jul19 5aEDT/4aCDT: PTC2 (Potential Tropical Cyclone Two)

Overnight/morning notes:
-Not a TD or named storm yet, likely later today.
-Winds 30mph, moving West 5mph (nearly stationary at the moment though), pressure 1009mb.
-Air recon does show pressure dropping though, around 1005mb currently (lower pressure is signal its trying to strengthen, winds follow thereafter).
-satellite imagery doesn't look any improved, maybe looked better last night in my opinion, but outflow is expanding nicely around it's far outer edges this AM (it has to breathe, or like the exhaust on your car).
-intensity models have lowered, NHC going with Cat1 Hurricane landfall (further East it go’s = less time to develop).
-slight tick east in models/cone map so surge watch may be extended eastward later today if that holds.
-possible rain totals have increased to 10-15 additional inches to what has already fallen, isolated 20"
-tornado threat increases starting tonight as rain comes on shore. Most tornadoes in landfalling tropical systems occur in the Northeast quadrant/corner of a storm.

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-11-2019 at 05:08 AM..
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:32 AM
 
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11Jul19 8aEDT/7aCDT:
-A new Tropical Wave that rolled off Africa the other day has a low 10% chance of development next few days over the open Atlantic but conditions unfavorable for development by this weekend.

PTC2 (Gulf system):
Reminder NHC updates every 3hrs at 1,4,7&10am/pmCDT(2,5,8&11am/pmEDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

-Air recon finds winds up slightly to 35mph, pressure 1005mb. Center is elongated stretching from a Southwest to Northeast direction. This will need to tighten up to more circular & needs more storms to fire up around center to start strengthening.
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:57 AM
 
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Thread from Levi of Tropical Tidbits on the system organization:
https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/...99376977829889
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Old 07-11-2019, 08:28 AM
 
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11Jul19 1020aEDT/920aCDT - recon flying through storm finding Tropical Storm force winds but well SE of storm center(s). Don’t know what they’ll call it as on 11aEDT advisory given its lack of organization at the moment but also need to not confuse the public with terminology (same, TD, TS or Sub-TS).
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