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Old 07-22-2019, 11:26 AM
 
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Mon 22July2019 2pEDT/AST:
Invest 94L in the Bahamas has put on quite a show today, with a I think I can, I think I can mentality. NHC has bumped up the chance of development to medium 60% chance & says a Tropical Depression (winds of 38mph or less) may be able to form later today or tonight. Thereafter, winds become unfavorable for development as it rides up the East coast of FL. Scattered showers possible Bahamas & portions of FL.
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Old 07-22-2019, 02:22 PM
 
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Mon 22July2019 420pEDT/AST:
And invest 94L has enough for a closed low level center allowing it be classified as Tropical Depression 3 (TD3). NHC will issue advisories (cone map, etc.) at 5pEDT.
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Old 07-22-2019, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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#3

https://twitter.com/MikeFirstAlert/s...02934148980736
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Old 07-22-2019, 05:10 PM
 
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This was a very quick organization from a tropical wave to an actual low level circulation over the corse of today, one of the quicker ones I’ve seen. BUT....as soon as they declared it, all those building scattered storms...went poof. You’d be hard pressed to find it now if you went looking on satellite at the moment, other than whats over FL. It did the same trick yesterday evening. So don’t be surprised if it pops back up again overnight but overall: What Levi says:
https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/...05749630046214
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Old 07-22-2019, 05:25 PM
 
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https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1153444303441498112
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Old 07-22-2019, 09:20 PM
 
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Mon 22July2019 11pEDT/AST:
C Pacific: All quiet.
E Pacific:
-TD 5E expected to become a Tropical Storm shortly well offshore, heading out to sea.
-Area S of Mexico may try to develop later this week, NHC has low 0-20% development chance.
Atlantic:
TD3 located about 65miles(105km) SE of Palm Beach, FL, winds 30mph(45km/h), moving NW 10mph(17km/h), pressure 1013mb. Expected to turn more N then NE Tuesday as it continues to move up between the approaching cold front dropping into the SE US and a high pressure out over the Atlantic (tropical systems are steered by upper level weather patterns around them). Not much in the way of development expected other then to disappear for good by Wednesday as it should be absorbed by the approaching cold front. There is a small chance it's able to very briefly eek out a name Tuesday but conditions hostile shortly and it's not well organized currently (and NHC doesn't call for it). It would more be a technicality then an actual worry should it briefly obtain that status (just need winds 39mph or higher to be a named Tropical Storm). Just a scattered showers rain maker near the coast where 1-3 inches could be picked up or so for now though. As mentioned earlier it basically disappeared and has since started to come back late this evening, but again not much to it:
(Posting quote in case tweet no longer available one day): "After #TD3's convection went poof earlier this evening, some low-topped convective cells have redeveloped. My hunch is that sfc fluxes helped to re-moisten the boundary layer, leading to convective initiation. Still a weak vortex, but it is at least identifiable on radar again."
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1153483503729664000
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Old 07-23-2019, 04:06 AM
 
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The TD to my east will have no effect on my weather and or any chance to be anything real.

Last edited by LKJ1988; 07-23-2019 at 05:06 AM..
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Old 07-23-2019, 05:03 AM
 
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Tue 23July2019 7aEDT/AST, 6aCDT:
C. Pacific: all quiet.
E. Pacific:
-See Dalila thread.
-Disorganized scattered showers S of Mexico have a low 20-30% chance of development next 5-days.
-Disorganized scattered showers SW of Mexico have a low 0-20% chance of development next 5-days.
Both headed away from land.
Atlantic:
-New area to watch for possible development: Northern Gulf of Mexico along the US Gulf states once again this Wednesday or Thursday per NHC. Currently low 0-20% chance of development. I'm guessing this would be spun from the tail of the approaching cold front (it happens) but haven't looked into really yet. NHC says will move slowly E to NE direction.
-TD3 (Tropical Depression 3) with winds of 35mph, moving North at 12mph, pressure 1012mb. You can follow it on your weather radar apps/websites as it's just off FL East coast. It's the blob between West Palm Beach and Cape Canaveral. An Air Force reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter aircraft just left Biloxi, MS to fly into the TD to measure it's winds. Based on radar and ships reports its possible it has about 40-45mph winds which would be classified as a Tropical Storm. That's just a tad higher than current rated strength so don't be surprised or alarmed if it did. Should continue North then turn more NE today, then be absorbed by the cold front by Wednesday as it gets pushed offshore, rapidly weakening. Probability maps have a low 5-10% chance of Tropical Storm force winds (36mph or higher) just clipping portions of the NC coast, most convection is East of the storm center though.
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Old 07-23-2019, 07:34 AM
 
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Tue 23July2019 930aEDT/AST: TD3: Air recon finding winds West of the storm center (FL coastal regions) at just 10-20mph. You have to go waaayyyy East of the center well offshore to find winds near Tropical Storm strength. It’s border line near TS but no changes or surprises noted. They’re still out flying around the system collecting data. You can follow air recon live here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
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Old 07-23-2019, 09:06 AM
 
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Tue 23July2019 11aEDT/AST: TD3: Air recon originally found a closed center of circulation, this AM but subsequent passes through the storm show its opened back up into a wave/trough once more. Just a blob of scattered showers & gusty winds now. So that means it can no longer be classified as a Tropical Depression. No more advisories will be issued by the NHC on this weakening system. The approaching cold front will absorb whatever is left of it shortly.
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