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Old 07-23-2019, 07:33 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Tue 23July2019 7aEDT/AST, 6aCDT:...
Atlantic:
-New area to watch for possible development: Northern Gulf of Mexico along the US Gulf states once again this Wednesday or Thursday per NHC. Currently low 0-20% chance of development. I'm guessing this would be spun from the tail of the approaching cold front (it happens) but haven't looked into really yet. NHC says will move slowly E to NE direction.
...

Tue 8pEDT/7pCDT: NHC still has the disorganized scattered showers along a frontal boundary near the US Gulf coast at low 0-20% chance of development later this week. A non-tropical low may develop along the front which in turn could turn into a sub-tropical or tropical system later this week. Models are not very bullish on this system developing currently though.
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Old 07-24-2019, 11:47 AM
 
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Wed 2pEDT/1pCDT:
Atlantic: The area of the Northern Gulf of Mexico being monitored for possible development has been lowered to 10% chance by the NHC. A low should form along the frontal boundary shortly but may not take on sub tropical or tropical characteristics this week with higher wind shear right along the Gulf states coast and in central Gulf along with dry air on the North/West sides of the front.
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Old 07-25-2019, 05:46 AM
 
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Thurs 25July2019 8aEDT/7aCDT/5aPDT/2aHST:

Atlantic: A weak non-tropical low pressure (big red ‘L’ on weather maps) has formed along the frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico but the front & Low don’t really have much to them at all currently. NHC has dropped Tropical development chances to zero now. High wind shear along US Gulf coast, dry air, lack of any organization & really nothing storm wise with front anymore that region.

E Pacific:
-See Dalila thread.
-Two areas being watched for development WAY offshore, heading away from land at 50% & 40% chances of developing.

C Pacific:
-Nothing, but will watch to see if 2 above mentioned systems above become anything.
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Old 07-26-2019, 08:12 PM
 
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Fri 26July2019 evening:
Atlantic: So not an area I'm well versed in but a strong Kelvin wave is crossing the Atlantic towards North Africa. So basically this invisible but detectable energy/pulse can help enhance convection in tropical waves and help give a boost to possible tropical systems...like 'giving them a Red Bull' as Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack says. So we're currently seeing an uptick in AEW's (African Easterly Waves...the little blobs of disorganized scattered showers that we watch as tropical waves as they slowly make their way across the Atlantic from Africa towards the Caribbean). Models aren't really locking onto anything though at the moment. Don't be surprised if that changes though. Doesn't mean it will though. Lot of Saharan dust across the Atlantic as well that can hinder development of any potential systems.

So basically we'll be watching waaayyyyy out at sea somewhere between the Caribbean and Africa over the next several days to see if anything decides to give it a go on trying to develop into 'something'. But even if it does, it'll be way out there and plenty of time to watch. Otherwise all quiet in the Atlantic.

You can see this in Michael Ventrice feed here: "A beautiful example of a strong convectively coupled Kelvin wave (blue contours) organizing convection (shading) within the mean location of the inter-tropical convergence zone. The Atlantic will likely start to wake up, convectively, these next few days, though intraseasonally."

And if you read his next post he replied to himself here showing behind this boost of energy is it's opposite that hinders convection which will pass into the Atlantic thereafter hindering development.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...27911322259457
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Old 07-27-2019, 05:36 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Activity off Africa

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1154792661410295808
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Old 07-27-2019, 08:40 AM
 
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Sat 27July2019 11aEDT/8aPDT/5aHST:
E/C Pacific:
Tropical Depression 6E has formed way out in the Eastern Pacific far from land. Likely named Tropical Storm soon and good indicators that it will become a Hurricane next week. Hawaii will want to be watching as it may approach the islands late next week in some form. Another system is likely to develop right behind this one as well that bears watching for Hawaii.
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Old 07-27-2019, 05:40 PM
 
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Sat 27July2019 evening:
E/C Pacific:
Tropical Depression 6E has now become Tropical Storm Erick far out in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
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Old 07-28-2019, 12:55 PM
 
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Sun 28July2019 2pEDT/11aPDT/8aHST:
Central Pacific:
-See Erick thread.
-See E Pacific note below for next threat following in Erick's footsteps.

East Pacific:
-See Erick thread (heading out towards Central Pacific)
-Tropical Depression 7E formed well offshore of Mexico. Located about 580miles(930km) SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. Moving away from land. Looks to follow in Erick's footsteps though and may near Hawaii the week of August 5th. Too early to forecast anything that far out but it'll head that general direction in some form so we'll watch and see what becomes of it. Satellite shows steady organization occurring, so likely named storm by this evening or early Monday. NHC currently forecasting it to be a Cat2 Hurricane towards end of this week.

Atlantic:
-As mentioned in previous post with passing of Kelvin Wave in the Atlantic, it's not surprising something popped up. A tropical wave has survived it's trip across the Atlantic, just passing the Lesser Antilles (the islands East of Puerto Rico that curve down on the map to South America) and entered the Eastern Caribbean Sea. Wind shear is high across this region though so no sudden change in strength is expected while in the Caribbean Sea. This blob of disorganized scattered showers is expected to turn more WNW then NW crossing over or near Hispaniola (Haiti / Dominican Republic) and Puerto Rico. Heavy scattered showers and flash flooding will be possible especially with higher terrain which can ring out additional moisture from passing storms. Haiti is especially vulnerable to these occurrences due to large scale deforestation that has occurred over the years. The island of Hispaniola is also nick-named the 'Hurricane Shredder' though as it can rip tropical systems apart. But since this is just a blob at the moment it may not have much effect on the disturbance.

Thereafter, this disturbance will enter the straights of Florida / Bahamas region where wind shear is lite and conditions favorable for development / strengthening. Currently the NHC is giving this a 10-20% chance of development next 5-days. We'll watch to see if that evolves especially after passes Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. This disturbance has been dubbed Invest 95L (a number given for tracking purposes...just a disorganized blob at the moment).

-A few very weak tropical waves are in the Atlantic and will be watched for any development but no signs they will even try at the moment.

-A new tropical wave is emerging off the NorthWest coast of Africa into the Atlantic. This system is much more vigorous then others recently and bears watching. No signs from the models on development yet but the earlier mentioned Kelvin Wave may help spur development as they pass each other later in the week.
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Old 07-29-2019, 12:52 PM
 
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Monday 29July2019 2pEDT/AST:
Atlantic:
-Invest 95L near Puerto Rico is very disorganized this afternoon. But heavy on/off scattered showers are occurring across the region over several islands. NHC gives 0% chance of development next 2 days, and low 10% chance next 5 days once it clears Hispaniola. Wind shear high until then. Not a lot of model support on development though but will watch for any sneaky surprises in track or intensity.
-The large tropical wave that emerged off Africa bears watching. Will be battling high amount of dry dusty Saharan air though as it tracks across the Atlantic.
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Old 07-29-2019, 05:36 PM
 
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Monday 29July2019 8pEDT/AST,7pCDT: NHC’s tweet this evening: “We are watching 2 systems this evening. The western system has a low (10%) chance of formation near the Bahamas over the weekend, while the eastern disturbance near Africa has a low (20%) chance of formation east of the Lesser Antilles this weekend. More: www.hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...83975841587207
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