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Old 07-30-2019, 05:40 AM
 
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Tuesday 30July2019 2aEDT/AST:
Atlantic:
-Invest 95L near Puerto Rico continues to dump heavy scattered showers across the region. Heavy rains and flooding remain biggest risk. Don't need a named storm for that. NHC has at low 0-10% chance of development. Should generally head towards FL / Bahamas region. There is a little model support for developing the system if it re-curves out to sea just off the SE US coast but not much.
-The tropical wave that entered the Atlantic off NW Africa the other day is slowly increasing it's chances of development in the models. Most keep it weak, if it even develops, all the way towards the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico region or north of there. But seems like every model run it gets a tiny nudge towards development potential, some bring it to hurricane strength, but majority keep it weaker for now. Plenty of time to watch. NHC currently has a 20% chance of development next 5 days (as of 2amEDT/AST update).


Edit: the 8am update just came out, but no changes to the above.

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-30-2019 at 06:03 AM..
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Old 07-30-2019, 08:24 PM
 
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Tuesday 30July2019 8pEDT/AST,7pCDT,5pPDT:
Atlantic:
-invest 95L still producing scattered heavy showers and some flooding Puerto Rico and surrounding region. The highly disorganized blob has a low 10% formation chance when it eventually gets closer to the Bahamas / E Florida region but overall this is just a scattered rain maker. No real model support for anything developing other then maybe as scoots off away from the coast eventually.
-Tropical Wave being monitored that moved off of Africa the other day now up to 40% formation chance next 5-days with NHC saying a Tropical Depression may form East of the Lesser Antilles by this weekend. Euro model seems most bullish of the main ones with several of its models developing a storm but most then re-curve it out to sea after brushing the Lesser Antilles / Puerto Rico region. Maybe a Bermuda threat as well. No guarantee of that this far out, just an FYI.

E Pacific:
-Disorganized scattered showers well South of Mexico has a 40% formation chance next 5-days as heads away from land behind Flossie.
-See Flossie thread.

C Pacific:
-See Erick thread.
-See Flossie thread.
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Old 07-31-2019, 12:28 PM
 
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Wed 31July2019 2pEDT/AST,1pCDT:
Atlantic:
The area being watched for development over the Central Atlantic between Africa & the Caribbean now at 60% formation chance next 5-days. This would be when conditions more favorable for development closer to the Lesser Antilles (eastern Caribbean). The Euro model continues to show some & increasing support of something developing & today the GFS finally jumped on board to the same general thinking. Generally models show it recurving out to sea and/or towards Nova Scotia region after brushing NE Caribbean but this far out in time all options are still on the table. Plenty of time to watch & remember models don’t always have a great handle on storm specifics this far out in time especially when no storm exists yet. Just a disorganized blob of scattered showers at the moment.
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Old 07-31-2019, 07:16 PM
 
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Wed 31July2019 8pEDT/AST,7pCDT:
Atlantic:
-Invest 95L, or what used to be it, more of an elongated open tropical wave/trough now, bringing scattered showers across Cuba, Hispaniola & Puerto Rico regions this evening. Very heavy rains some locations including extreme eastern Puerto Rico. This disorganized scattered blob of tropical moisture continues to ever so slowly drift up towards the Bahamas, Florida region, and eventually start re-curving along the Southeast US coast and then eventually pushed out to sea. The system should continue to bring heavy scattered rains to some locations along the SE coast. It does have a low 10% chance of formation along the SE US coast but rain is the main story.

-Invest 96L now designated for tracking purposes. It's the disorganized blob in the central Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean moving West at about 15mph. NHC now gives it a formation chance of 70% late this weekend into early next week as gets closer to the Lesser Antilles where conditions are expected to be better for potential development. Careful watching the GFS model runs today...after ignoring the storm it's decided to put it on steroids today. Euro model has been consistent for days in showing the potential storm forming near NE Caribbean and has ever so slowly been steadily increasing the odds. Plenty of time to watch still. The Euro also suggest a large trough/cold front may be sweeping towards the US East coast next week which if catches the storm, would re-curve it up and out. Timing timing timing.

E. Pacific:
-Disorganized scattered showers well South of Mexico and S Baja tip has a 50% formation chance next 5-days. Following in Flossie's footsteps.
-See Flossie thread.

C. Pacific:
-See Erick thread.
-See Flossie thread.
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Old 08-01-2019, 05:49 AM
 
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Thurs 1Aug2019 morning update:
-Invest 96L in the central Atlantic:
Models: No real changes, chances mixed. Seems of the ones that do develop it take it near NE Caribbean then re-curve it out to sea or up towards Nova Scotia region (don't forget Bermuda as well).

Track/intensity: Reading around from online experts I follow 96L looks to have several things working towards it developing and against it. Basically it has the dry Saharan dusty air traveling across the Atlantic beside it currently like an annoying passenger sitting across the aisle from it. Should the dry air come over and talk to 96L it may ingest the dry air weakening it. Should it fight off the dry air it could wrap itself up into a tiny ball in order to protect itself from the dry air (and small systems are subject to sudden swings in intensity up or down). Or they'll keep to themselves. As 96L approaches / moves near the NE Caribbean it'll encounter a TUTT low moving down from North Atlantic towards the Caribbean. TUTT lows can help and hurt tropical systems depending on interaction of distance, current strengths, relative position to one another etc. After this the system will likely want to re-curve up and around the High Pressure over the Atlantic and that also depends on strength and position of the High pressure. If a cold front / trough does sweep into Eastern US then that would also help swing it up and out. A few models keep it on a W/WNW track towards the US though but the ones that develop it seem to indicate better chance of a stronger system the further out and away it travels if go's up and out to sea. Still have plenty of time to watch what it may do.

Edit, adding: it also has to contend with the suppressed phase of Kelvin Wave state over the next few days as well which tends to limit convection formation.

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-01-2019 at 06:10 AM..
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Old 08-01-2019, 06:56 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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70% chance

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/sta...13342205140992
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Old 08-01-2019, 09:52 AM
 
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The blob of Invest 95L

https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1156939899406303232
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Old 08-01-2019, 06:40 PM
 
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Thurs 1Aug2019 8pEDT/AST, 7pCDT, 5pPDT:
Atlantic:
-invest 95L FL/Bahamas 0% chance formation.
-invest 96L 70% chance formation but NHC now saying conditions look less favorable for it next week. Models dropping support, suspect that % may come down if trend continues.

E Pacific:
-Disorganized blob well SW of Mexico down to low 30% chance formation.
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Old 08-01-2019, 06:53 PM
 
Location: USA
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Are these the US models or the European models?

Sometimes they vary a great deal
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Old 08-01-2019, 08:02 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FireStation46 View Post
Are these the US models or the European models?
Sometimes they vary a great deal
The GFS (US/NOAA model), Euro, UKMET & Canadian are not as bullish on developing the system now. The GFS pm ensembles appear to only show 2 models or so supporting development but barely anything, rest don't. Just 24hours ago GFS was calling for a Cat3+. Euro ensembles (51 models) also appear to only have two or 3 models showing development, down substantially from earlier as well.

That said, with potential systems by tomorrow they could all jump back on board once more. We'll see. If they flip back and forth then confidence is low, if they stick with one idea then confidence high. Euro was steady last few days until dropping support for development today.
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