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Old 08-16-2019, 12:43 PM
 
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Fri 16Aug2019 - The NWS Climate Prediction Center is mentioning the potential Gulf of Mexico system in their 1.5wk outlook (NHC only does out to 5-days):
https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/1162433204155928576
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Old 08-16-2019, 06:33 PM
 
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Fri 16Aug 8pEDT/AST: And here’s the NHC with low 20% formation chance next 5-days for the other possibility mentioned in other post earlier in the week off the SE US coast. Not a lot of model support for it but models have been consistent in occasionally showing something weak trying to form. For now, a heavy scattered rain threat.
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...20294327648257
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Old 08-17-2019, 05:40 AM
 
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It is dead everywhere like i said it would be days ago.
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Old 08-17-2019, 09:21 AM
 
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MCV Spinny thingy:

https://twitter.com/GregPostel/statu...29138618347526
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Old 08-18-2019, 06:39 AM
 
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Sun 18Aug2019 8aEDT/AST, 7aCDT, 5aPDT, 2aHST:
Atlantic:
-invest 97L SC/NC coast 30% formation chance as it clears coast soon & zips off into the Atlantic, just rain.
-Looks quiet next 10-days; W Gulf potential has lost lot of model support; some models say low potential with a little Low over S GA/ FL Panhandle early this week since near water but keep it weak if anything at all. Average peak of hurricane season is mid-September.
E. Pacific:
-invest 95E along Mexico/Guatemala border, heading just S of parallel to coast to WNW about 10mph. Heavy scattered rains to region. NHC says Tropical Depression Tue/Wed. Models maybe hurricane weeks end. Possible some left over moisture could make it to CA/AZ, USA but still questionable at the moment. May threaten low population island of Socorro, S of Baja.
-invest 96E looks to eventually track South of Hawaii next weekend.
-another area being watched right next to this one as well.
C. Pacific: See above
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Old 08-20-2019, 05:26 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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0 Atlantic named storms in 2019 since Barry on July 14. The last time that the Atlantic had no named storm activity from July 15 - August 19 was 1982.

On that note.... Just takes 1 to make a headline, right? This was before the climate was changing though.


https://twitter.com/TARCweather/stat...07451506954240
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Old 08-21-2019, 10:09 AM
 
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Wed 21Aug2019 11aEDT/AST, 10aCDT, 8aPDT, 5aHST:
Atlantic:
-invest 97L became Chantal, see that thread for details, out to sea.
-Models have jumped onto a disturbance over the Bahamas. NHC has low 20% chance of formation next 5-days on it as it slowly rides up parallel/near to the Southeast US coastline. Euro ensembles have a 50-60% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression (winds 38mph or less) and about 30% chance of becoming named as of overnight run.
E. Pacific:
-invest 95E became Tropical Depression 10E off SW Mexico. Likely named shortly, possible hurricane by weeks end before weakening begins, looks to track parallel to Baja peninsula offshore. Will have to watch where moisture from it eventually heads.
C. Pacific: See above
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Old 08-22-2019, 05:29 AM
 
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Thurs 22Aug2019 7aEDT:
Atlantic:
-Bahamas blob: Overnight Euro 80% chance TD between S FL - NC this Sun-Wed near SE US, 50% chance of TS. Steering currents may become week by next mid-week too. NHC 2amEDT 20% chance formation, will likely increase at 8a or 2p update today.
-Some tiny support for that possible weak development along N/NW Gulf of Mexico again early next week, tropical moisture into region either way it appears.
-Time to start watching tropical waves between Africa & Caribbean.

Edit: 8am kept Bahamas sys at 20% chance. I don’t think the GFS is very bullish on it.

Last edited by Psychoma; 08-22-2019 at 05:54 AM..
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Old 08-22-2019, 11:00 AM
 
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For the curious, here was the overnight Euro ensemble runs (Euro actually has 51 models with slight tweaks to capture range of possibilities), the newest Euro will be out early this afternoon.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1164581727005634560
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Old 08-22-2019, 02:03 PM
 
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22Aug2019 afternoon: Bahamas blob designated invest 98L. NHC has 30% chance of development. Afternoon Euro model had a Cat1 hurricane early next week staying just offshore:
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1164623261466054656
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