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Old 04-17-2019, 07:06 AM
 
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Hmmm, must have jinxed it. May have subtropical development into next week in central North Atlantic according to Tropical Tidbits. But no threat to land currently, should it even develop wwaaaaayyyyy out there well offshore.

Subtropical systems are different structure and formation method from our regular tropical cyclones but can eventually transition into fully tropical systems. Subtropical can form over colder or warm waters, retrieve their energy from baroclinic sources, often have a comma shape, winds are more spread out or cover a wider area, have cold air cores (tropical is warm core), and convection(storms) are typically displaced well away from an exposed center. We saw a few of these last year.

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/...92452904677383
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Old 04-30-2019, 07:13 PM
 
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30Apr - I haven't dove into MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) yet...from the little I've looked up it's basically like an invisible but detectable pulse that moves Eastward across the globe slowly, near the tropics and either enhances convection/rain or it helps suppress convection/rain. How this ties to hurricane development is that it can help enhance or decrease chances of tropical development with that as those parts/phases move through.

But the above is to give context to this post on Twitter here from Ventrice who studies this and how it relates to tropical development. So an active phase looks to pass through East Pacific mid to late May which also times perfectly with start of E Pacific hurricane season (May 15th!) so this means another tick in the box of things that can help a storm should one form (it doesn't mean one will form just increased favorable environment for one). Then late May early June this moves Eastward across the Caribbean so that time frame could see more favorable chances for development...again, does NOT mean anything will even attempt to form, just another favorable ingredient will possibly be available should something try.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/statu...64329645924352

And currently in the Atlantic near Bahamas a disturbance is moving towards FL. Just a blob and no current sign of development, but it does have a Mid-level spin to it. But no low level spin so no tropical system trying to form at this time. And according to post wind shear increasing so that also hurts tropical development, so no worries currently, but we’ll watch it. There’s more discussion to follow in that threads comments.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1123360148955619328
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Old 05-01-2019, 05:13 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Tropical Low. Wont become anything.


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Old 05-01-2019, 05:14 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Season Starts in One Month.


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Old 05-01-2019, 07:45 AM
 
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1May 925aEDT - Officially on the Low chance (0-20% chance of development) board from NHC as it’ll be over the thin warm Gulf Stream waters in a few days, either way scattered rain chances into coastal regions. But water temps are only marginal for any development, so IF something did, it won’t be a stronger system...water temps can’t support much in this area and barely support development water temps threshold and slower movement will just churn up colder waters. NHC will update % chance again by tomorrow 10aEDT if warranted here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

And early season development has shown no baring on what rest of season may have in store.

2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-e6dbb4d2-c97b-49a2-9c09-47d07f2c5fc6.png
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Old 05-01-2019, 01:27 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Upper low and trough could help

https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/stat...13627947286529
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Old 05-01-2019, 08:02 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
2019 Hurricane Awareness Tour dates announced, all times are local, subject to change:

All locations:
-Tour two of the actual Hurricane Hunter aircraft: NOAA P-3 and US Air Force WC-130J
-Meet the flight crews
-Meet NHC hurricane forecasters
-Meet with local NWS Meteorologist & Emergency Managers
-Learn about weather safety & preparedness
Now with times/links, all events are *free*, just show up to attend, NOTE: Some sites say entry gates close at 4:30 and all locations shows end promptly at 5p as they fly out to next days location.

US Mainland:
May 6 - Quonset, RI, Quonset State Airport, 2p-5p, https://www.weather.gov/box/2019HAT
May 7 - Harrisburg, PA, Harrisburg International Airport, 2p-5p, https://www.weather.gov/ctp/2019HAT
May 8 - Roanoke, VA, Roanoke-Blacksburg Regional Airport, 2p-5p, https://www.weather.gov/rnk/2019HAT
May 9 - Charlotte, NC, CLT Airport, 2p-5p, https://www.weather.gov/gsp/hat
May 10 - Brunswick, GA, Brunswick Golden Isles Airport, 2p-5p, https://www.weather.gov/jax/hat
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Old 05-03-2019, 08:08 AM
 
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3May19 10aEDT - Friday AM update from NHC puts chance of development at low 10%. It (the blob of disorganized scattered showers) will merge with a front and sail off into the Atlantic within a few days and be gone soon.
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-69d2bcba-9122-4f8b-9a6d-a5e34388d19b.png
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Old 05-09-2019, 05:55 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Oh boy. BogusCaneSeason. It begins. Lol.
For those that dont know, the GFS model likes to spin up storms in the long range which tyically is wrong. Its starting already showing a storm in the gulf in 2 weeks

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1126430005666381825
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Old 05-13-2019, 06:16 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Oh boy. BogusCaneSeason. It begins. Lol.
For those that dont know, the GFS model likes to spin up storms in the long range which tyically is wrong. Its starting already showing a storm in the gulf in 2 weeks
The week before that one it had a possible system off the Carolina coast for a few runs, gone from model now of course.
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