U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 06-04-2019, 05:58 AM
 
4,285 posts, read 2,169,761 times
Reputation: 1576

Advertisements

4Jun19 8aEDT/7aCDT Tuesday:
Atlantic: NHC has lowered chance of invest 91L developing from 60% down to 40%. It continues to be disorganized & has an elongated center (looks like a giant oval or elliptical shape versus a nice circular one on wind maps / ASCAT imagery). Regardless of any development or deterioration: heavy scattered rains will be coming into the US from SE Texas up into the Midwest and Eastward toward the Appalachian Mountains near the East coast. Looking at TPW (Total Precipitable Water) maps (the amount of rain the air is holding if you squeezed it all out into measurable rainfall) shows us high rainfall value potential from Tropical moisture being pulled up by invest 91L is already streaming up into Texas. So the moisture is already coming, and by Wednesday will start falling in some areas and due to the high TPW level could have several inch per hour rain rates. Flash flooding will be occurring in some locations of the US this week. Be paying attention to radar, your local NWS office and local news.

Here’s TPW imagery animation: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-tim...hrs&anim=html5

Last edited by Psychoma; 06-04-2019 at 06:12 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 06-04-2019, 12:37 PM
 
4,285 posts, read 2,169,761 times
Reputation: 1576
4Jun19 2pEDT/1pCDT Tuesday: NHC lowered 91L development chance down to low 20%. Heavy scattered showers nearing the Texas coast from Galveston/Houston southward already today.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-05-2019, 08:09 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,149 posts, read 56,613,323 times
Reputation: 12800


It's been 33 yrs since a hurricane has made landfall over the U.S mainland in June! Bonnie in 1986.

Looks like the streak could continue.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1136293962321469440
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-09-2019, 09:48 AM
 
4,285 posts, read 2,169,761 times
Reputation: 1576
9Jun19 update: (quick summary: no activity currently or expected)

Atlantic (detailed):
Nothing from the models or out there currently. No surprise. It's June and history tells us overall activity is usually low (peak is mid September...activity should slowly increase over time until that point then begin to decrease).

So, where could one form if it tried currently? I marked up image below to show anywhere in white boundary can support (water temp wise) tropical genesis (a tropical system Depression or named storm could form), and I marked where water temps can support a Cat3 or higher storm (just one ingredient but a major one...other factors could support strengthening outside these areas such as upper level winds acting as a turbo charger engine component does if just in the right location relative to a hurricane, etc.). Tropical systems like water temps of around 26C (78F)+ to form and about 28.5C (83F)+ for Cat3+ strength. Waters will continue to warm as head towards mid-September, then will start to cool back off for the year. When a storm comes through it will also cool off the waters some, taking away fuel for any storms that follow for a time. Hurricanes can survive over colder waters but usually will continue to weaken below that 26C threshold.
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-watertempsjune9-2019.jpg

But no storms to take advantage of those water temps due to our old friend dust crossing the Atlantic blown off the Sahara Desert (can see it just off West African coast in visible satellite this morning).
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-dustjune9-2019.jpg

Here's a map to see where dust is at better, this is dry dusty air and tropical systems do NOT like. But the amount of dust/dry air is less than previous years but its still present:
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-airlayerjune92019.jpg

And wind shear is still high (red areas) across most areas...tropical systems do not like this either (they prefer areas of low wind shear (green areas).
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-wind-shear-june9-2019.jpg

Last edited by Psychoma; 06-09-2019 at 09:56 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-12-2019, 05:06 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,149 posts, read 56,613,323 times
Reputation: 12800
Strong Westerlies

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-14-2019, 04:19 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,149 posts, read 56,613,323 times
Reputation: 12800
Cool Waters.
Strong Wind Shear
Too Dusty & Dry

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-14-2019, 04:33 AM
 
Location: Williamsburg, VA
3,551 posts, read 2,007,636 times
Reputation: 10337
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Cool Waters.
Strong Wind Shear
Too Dusty & Dry

These are good things, right? Having tropical storms be inhibited sounds like a good thing to me, but I don't know much about hurricanes. Does that set us up for a bigger storm next week?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-14-2019, 10:32 AM
 
4,285 posts, read 2,169,761 times
Reputation: 1576
Quote:
Originally Posted by Piney Creek View Post
These are good things, right? Having tropical storms be inhibited sounds like a good thing to me, but I don't know much about hurricanes. Does that set us up for a bigger storm next week?
Not next week but you have the right idea. The only issue no storms pose is that means open waters don’t get churned up as they pass through which allows warm water to continue to build up, which is a main ingredient for Hurricanes & even just a few degrees matters. Doesn’t mean they’ll take full advantage of that due to other factors (water temps are just 1 ingredient) though. Later in the season this becomes a concern, but this early I wouldn’t be worried about that yet. According to Phil Klotzbach (Meteorologists & wealth of Hurricane history stats) half of the Atlantic seasons from 1995-present had storms form between June 1-18, and half didn't. And per NHC: long term average first named storm occurs in early July (we had ours in May) & on average activity starts to noticeably increase in August.

But if something tried to form right now, the odds are stacked against it surviving or becoming much of anything under these conditions. There are no current areas being monitored for development & models aren’t showing any signs of possible development from anything down the road at this time. Eventually these patterns will start to break down some as we head into summer and we can eventually expect to see something try to slip in pockets/areas of better conditions for storms.

Last edited by Psychoma; 06-14-2019 at 10:50 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-17-2019, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,149 posts, read 56,613,323 times
Reputation: 12800
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/st...08001976659968
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-17-2019, 02:39 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,149 posts, read 56,613,323 times
Reputation: 12800
Warm non El Ninos better chances at development

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/st...04592595947520
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top