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Old 07-03-2019, 05:16 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Continues. Lets have a record low year guys! That would be awesome.


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Old 07-04-2019, 09:19 PM
 
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4Jul19 evening:

Central Pacific: See Barbara thread.

East Pacific:
-See Barbara thread.
-Invest 95E has a high 60-90% chance of forming next 5-days well off the S/SW Mexico coast. Invest number is just for tracking purposes, it's just disorganized scattered showers currently. Looks to stay offshore at the moment.

Atlantic: All quiet but GFS and Euro have picked up on a possible Low quickly forming along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico between Louisiana and Big Bend (FL Panhandle) end of next week. We'll see being a week out if they hold onto this idea or not. A slight shift north of this Low, should it develop, and it'll stay over land. Should it develop over the water it could quickly try to become something tropical. But we'll see what happens. Models could drop the idea by morning but if they continue to show it into the weekend then start taking note.

Close to 3 weeks ago the question came up about no storms sets up for possible bigger later, and with that waters can warm not being churned up and cooled by a passing storm. Since that time the Gulf of Mexico has warmed considerably, now the 2rd warmest on record (I'm not sure how/where they're reading this or if its an average among x number of locations or what) and Western Atlantic now 3rd warmest since 1981. Hurricanes love warm water. This was posted by Mike Lowry:
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1146859672802070528

And I've updated my added outline to Tropical Tidbits current water temp map to illustrate where a tropical system could form (within white line boundary) and where could support a Cat3 or higher storm (within blue outline). The very bottom of the map isn't included because it's too close to the equator where tropical storms don't form. Now this doesn't mean a storm will develop or take advantage of this as this is just one ingredient of a Tropical system but it's a pretty important one so wanted to share where a storm could form or be Cat3 or higher with you though. So can New England get a Cat3? Yes. But water temps don't support it?!? Water temps don't support a storm off New England or other cooler areas developing or gaining strength but warmer waters can allow a storm to build up and start to weaken once they reach cooler waters like we're seeing with Barbara in the East Pacific currently. They don't just instantly fizzle because they crossed a temperature line, they have to take time to wind down. New England has had several Cat3's but it's been a long long time. Just a reminder. (Not saying something will happen, just a reminder these things have before).
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-waters.jpg
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Old 07-05-2019, 08:55 PM
 
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5Jul19 evening:

Central Pacific: See Barbara thread.

East Pacific:
-See Barbara thread.
-Invest 95E high 80% chance of development next 5-days as heads out to sea.
-Another area S of Mexico well offshore has a low 0-20% chance of development next 5-days.

Atlantic:
-Still seeing if something tries to briefly form in the North Gulf of Mexico end of next week. GFS doesn't show much of anything now, EURO appears to suggest something there but not as bullish on development as earlier. Plenty of time for changes, wait and see thing at the moment.
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Old 07-06-2019, 05:44 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Gulf action?


https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/s...65486210412545
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Old 07-06-2019, 05:49 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Gulf Action coming?


https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...72289979482113
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Old 07-06-2019, 08:45 AM
 
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Sat 6Jul19
Ya, potential there in the N Gulf of Mexico region late this coming week into next weekend. Low wind shear, very warm waters to feed off of. NHC doesn't issue outlooks past 5-days, so giving the timing it would NOT be surprising to see them put out a low chance of development blob in the N GOM sometime between late today and Monday. It would not necessarily mean something changed either, it would just be standard timing protocol. Keep in mind models still showing then not showing development and they are jumping around, sometimes hundreds of miles, each model run on a potential storm. So that tells us low confidence in something tropical forming or not and where, but potential is there and given good environment for something to quickly strengthen we know its possible so we watch, wait and see.

It should also be noted that if any Low Pressure forms near the Gulf of Mexico this week, whether onshore or offshore, it may stick around for a few days and heavy scattered showers potential & flooding will be the main focus for now. Still possible no low forms at all, or something named does, too early to know.
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Old 07-06-2019, 11:41 AM
 
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And there it is, the 6Jul19 2pEDT/1pCDT outlook update has low 0-20% chance of development midweek as it'll potentially come from a system moving across TN currently:
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-20.jpg

Per NHC: "A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week. Some gradual development of the system is then possible as it drifts westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek. "

The NHC updates the % chance of formation maps every 6-hours at 2 & 8am/pmEDT (1 & 7am/pmCDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
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Old 07-07-2019, 12:49 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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New Euro model update and still has Barry there next week

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...57822395863040
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Old 07-07-2019, 09:12 AM
 
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Sun 7Jul19 8aEDT/7aCDT NHC morning outlook bumped up chance of development to medium 40% chance this week. Appears Euro model is the most bullish on this system. We'll see what happens! If you're in the Gulf coast region be sure to look up your local National Weather Service office on social media where some are talking about this for potential impacts as well.
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Old 07-07-2019, 12:12 PM
 
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Sun 7Jul19 2pEDT/1pCDT Afternoon NHC outlook update bumps chance of development in North/Northeast Gulf of Mexico (GOM) to 50% this week. Again, % chance of development amount is updated every six hours at 2&8am/pmEDT here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

If something did form, it’s best chance of organizing & strengthening would be the further South and West it goes. Further from land, warm waters & less interaction with other weather features. For now it appears the NE corner of the GOM has the highest chance of where it may try to initially setup shop (subject to change based on the future Low’s track down to the coast & other weather pattern features at play next several days & timing) & the biggest threat currently is the potential for scattered heavy showers and flooding that comes with any Low pressure’s counter clockwise spin near the coast and slow to no movement potential, whether or not a tropical depression or storm forms. If a low does start to develop then rip current risk will rise along coastal areas. If storm does develop and becomes named then we would talk wind (tree/power) issues & coastal flooding. But for now there’s a 50-50 shot of something developing & rain/flooding is higher concern at the moment.

If you’re looking for more in depth overall weather pattern behind this check out Tropical Tidbits discussion this afternoon(click the tweet for more post from him in that thread):
https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/...28654363734017

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-07-2019 at 12:29 PM..
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