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Old 07-07-2019, 12:39 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
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Latest Euro model run bringing it further west.

https://i.imgur.com/1FU7NoE.png

Last edited by Ibginnie; 07-09-2019 at 11:22 AM.. Reason: copyright violation
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Old 07-07-2019, 01:43 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ral31 View Post
Latest Euro model run bringing it further west.
Coast is gonna get a ton of rain. Slow mover

Euro says its gonna be windy for some. Purple = 65kt sustained winds at 5000 feet. Some of that should mix down to surface. 30-50mph gusts?

https://i.imgur.com/2te7SLf.png

Last edited by Ibginnie; 07-09-2019 at 11:22 AM.. Reason: copyright violation
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Old 07-07-2019, 03:31 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Coast is gonna get a ton of rain. Slow mover

Euro says its gonna be windy for some. Purple = 65kt sustained winds at 5000 feet. Some of that should mix down to surface. 30-50mph gusts?
Here's a write up from a local meteorologist regarding possible scenarios. If it heads my way, it will may develop more.

Quote:
Meteorologist Nick Mikulas

Morning models and ensembles are in, and I somehow feel like I know less about our potential tropical system than I did yesterday. The bad news regarding that school of thought is that I was getting more confident that this would stay east of us. Now, I’m not so sure, though there are many paths to this missing us. I’ll walk you through the possibilities.

First off, NHC has us up to a 50% chance for development in the next five days. I agree with them continuing to increase this number, and with the model consensus favoring development, think that number will inch up early this week. Any sort of development would probably hold off until Wednesday, and that would be well to our southeast. So any early week plans should be fine.

There is still a chance this doesn’t develop at all. So that’s scenario 1. No development, and an increase in rain chances along the coast through the weekend.

Scenario 2 is that we see slow development, and the system turns north toward Florida, leaving us untouched, but bringing plenty of rain, and the potential for some wind issues to areas roughly east of Gulf Shores. This could be problematic for an area still reeling from Hurricane Michael. Landfall would likely happen late next week or early in the weekend if this happened.

Scenario 3 involves the system dropping further into the Gulf of Mexico and moving west northwest as a ridge of high pressure expands to the east, and sort of shoves the system toward Louisiana. This would allow more time over water, with a favorable upper level environment, and more potential strengthening. Landfall in this scenario would likely happen next weekend.

Specifics are obviously impossible at this point, but it is getting to that time where you need to monitor things closely, especially if you have travel plans between Galveston and Tampa over the next week, or if you live anywhere near, or along that coastal area. There are more complex scenarios that involve the Carolinas, but I don’t want to clutter things up too much since this is mainly a Louisiana page. Steering currents for this potential system look fairly weak, so the above scenarios, and all points in between are in play. The main takeaway is that something could get cranked up in the Gulf this week.

I think that by Tuesday, we will start to see a trend toward which scenario is most likely. That only gives 3-4 days of lead time, so if this develops, it’ll feel like it “snuck up.” You of course, know better. I’ll update things tomorrow.
https://www.facebook.com/missedhighf...type=3&theater
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Old 07-07-2019, 06:00 PM
 
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It will move away from me like always.
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Old 07-07-2019, 08:53 PM
 
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Sun 7Jul19 evening - NHC bumps up chance of development to 60% chance. Ral31's quote above pretty much says it all at the moment. Wait and see thing with multiple scenario's on the table currently, need to get a little further in the week before will know more with any confidence.

As far as modeling goes, the evening GFS leaned more towards the EURO with shift west some. This is a good test for the new GFS version recently released and the EURO was just updated as well. The old GFS, which is still running for about 2 more months, has the storm developing along GA/FL border on the Atlantic side and racing up the coast to Cape Hatteras then out to sea. So we'll see what happens.

With models you look for trends. As of this evening the current GFS and Euro are more in line. Doesn't mean they'll stay that way overnight but if they agree more then confidence grows. Also note that both GFS and Euro have consistently shown lop-sided storms, should one develop, with convection(storms, heaviest rains) on the East (right) side.
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Old 07-08-2019, 05:45 AM
 
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Mon 8Jul19 8aEDT/7aCDT - NHC has high 80% chance of development (meaning tropical depression or stronger) in the North Gulf of Mexico later this week. More models jumping onto the idea of something trying to form. Models mixed with anywhere from TX to FL in play still with the main two models, GFS & Euro leaning more to the West for the time being, but we’re several days out still so not surprising. Really good lead time on the possibility of development with this, details still to be determined though.
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Old 07-08-2019, 10:07 AM
 
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Mon late morning 8Jul19 - Area of Low pressure that may develop in the North Gulf of Mexico has been designated as "Invest 92L". Nothing has changed otherwise this morning.

An invest is just an 'area of investigation' and the number is given to help identify/track it/reference it in communications (you may see a few invest at once towards peak hurricane season mid-September so helps keep track of which system you're talking about). The number is just what's next available from 90 to 99 and then repeats (so check dates when looking up info on an invest). The 'L' just means Atlantic basin (Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean) (Invest letter 'A' is for Arabian Sea). Invest are usually just a blob of disorganized scattered showers with potential.

The Low pressure being watched for development is currently centered over Atlanta, GA. Nothing to it yet, just a spin. But slowly drifting South towards the Gulf of Mexico. There is another spin apparent further up in the atmosphere over South-central Alabama as well. Maybe low and mid-level centers respectively. So disorganized currently, but heading towards the warm Gulf waters to feed.
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Old 07-08-2019, 02:00 PM
 
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8Jul19 Monday early afternoon Euro run puts a strong Tropical Storm or Cat1 hurricane into TX/LA border region this weekend. Just one model, one model run but it continues its slight nudges west & a little stronger sitting over the warm gulf waters longer this week. CMC model same, UKMET model cat1 Louisiana, GFS near Houston, TX as Tropical Storm(TS), old GFS New Orleans TS, CMC same.

**Note: these may continue to shift around in track and intensity until a better organized system forms. The center of what may become “Barry” this week may jump around until it starts organizing more which effects where and when the storm moves and intensity and affects the model output. But a clear trend for favoring a more Westward solution which increases odds storm will be stronger.

Attachment 212569

Last edited by Ibginnie; 07-09-2019 at 11:25 AM.. Reason: copyright violation
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Old 07-08-2019, 04:55 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
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NOAA is already showing some impressive rainfall totals.

https://i.imgur.com/gZNPemf.gif

Last edited by Ibginnie; 07-09-2019 at 11:23 AM.. Reason: copyright violation
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Old 07-09-2019, 05:22 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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I think latest Euro shifted east last night so 8t was after this was posted.

https://twitter.com/SpaceCityWX/stat...92144270516225
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