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Old 01-01-2019, 08:56 PM
 
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Welcome to 2019! What will this season have in store?? Nobody knows! But history and studies tells us if you prepare now you can be much more calm, less stressed, you'll know your boundaries on when to set your plan into motion, when to leave and where you'll go.

Central Pacific (Hawaii) & Atlantic (Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean) hurricane seasons start June 1.
East Pacific (West Mexico, Western Central America, and US SW coast) season starts May 15.

Official storm stats/info:
Atlantic: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
E Pacific: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
C Pacific: Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu, Hawai`i

2-Week NOAA outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...link/ghazards/

Official Storm Surge maps for general planning purposes (specific named hurricane storm surge maps come with storm stats links above):
*First year to include Hawaii, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola (Haiti, Dominican Republic)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/


Tidbits:
-Storms can form any month of the year but majority form in their 'season'.
-Cyclone threats include: wind, storm surge flood (think higher high tide near coast) (most deadly part), rain flood (2nd most deadly part), tornadoes.
-Hurricanes, cyclones & typhoons are exactly the same thing, just different names for areas of the world.
-El Nino years tend to suppress Atlantic storms (less named storms, but as 1992 showed us it 'only takes one' to cause problems...Hurricane Andrew Cat5 hit S FL that year)
-Flood insurance typically has a 30-day wait period, so you can't wait for storm to get near.
-Many shelters and hotels DON'T take pets!! Have a list of accepting places NOW so you're ready to go later! Mandatory evacuations typically DON'T change these policies.
-Have a list of hotels you would evacuate to, as these fill up quickly by people reserving rooms just in case ahead of evacuation times/announcements. Beat them to it.
-Storm surge starts rising hours before storm arrives, sometimes cutting off escape routes early.
-Yes, PTSD is a real thing after storms.
-For parents your actions can directly affect the outcome for your children, not just physically but also mentally afterwards.
-Stores tend to close early while weather is still nice as they must secure their stock and send employees home in time to prepare.
-Run on supplies is common. Prepare now by just adding one soup can or extra gallon of water to normal shopping each week or so...start now and that's 22 extra gallons of water by start of hurricane season June 1 for example so supplies add up quickly!
-Hurricanes are one of the only natural disasters you have days or more to see coming.
-Know when you would leave...is it a higher end of Tropical Storm? Or a Cat1 hurricane? Or only when told to? If so, then stick with your plan and go when it's time. Don't sit and fret and wonder if it'll change and get caught off guard stuck at home...it happens! Just make the call and go with it and if the storm misses then be thankful.
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Old 01-03-2019, 07:05 PM
 
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3Jan19 - First potential storm of the year for East Pacific: about 1,300 miles SW of S tip of Baja, moving generally North, NHC says only has a few days to become something, unfavorable conditions by early next week, currently at a 30-50% chance of development, may be classified as Tropical or SubTropical, no threat to land currently. A named storm in January is fairly rare this region, but quickly ramps up in just a few more months typically.

All quiet elsewhere. Wind shear is way too high in the Atlantic region for any storms for now.
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Old 01-05-2019, 05:38 AM
 
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5Jan19 AM:
-Atlantic looks to remain quiet for awhile.

-Above mentioned possible E Pacific system at low 30% chance of development & window to do so closing rapidly.

-Tropical Depression 01W (One) has formed just west of 180w on the map well SW of Hawaii which means it falls under RMC Tokyo ( https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jm...eg/RSMC_HP.htm ) & JTWC (US Navy website - Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) ) and is considered a North West Pacific system. US Central Pacific Hurricane Center covers 180w to 140w and above the equator on maps. No threat to Hawaii.
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-10887ef7-668f-4b92-bead-3d6078a4a859.png
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Old 02-06-2019, 03:55 AM
 
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Just an early February Atlantic update (all quiet):

Water is warm enough to support tropical cyclogenesis (something could start to spin up) in area highlighted between white lines...above that too cold, below that too close to equator typically. Tropical systems like 26/27 degrees Celsius or warmer to form (78 degrees+ F):
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-f6bb07ac-5c5a-4c48-84f7-c4aff897b8c4.jpeg

Wind shear high (red lines, green is low) across...well everywhere so nothing Tropical is going to form in that condition:
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-821eb870-edbb-4c8f-8278-4706f8f2c7d7.gif

Other than a lone random smaller system, it could be May/June before anything appears typically.

Last edited by Psychoma; 02-06-2019 at 04:10 AM..
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Old 02-14-2019, 07:23 AM
 
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14Feb2019: officially “El Nino” conditions, which means hurricane activity in the East/Central Pacific may be above normal and Atlantic may be below normal. All depends on how long that condition last though. If ElNino fades by late summer then affect may not really be noticeable on the season as a whole, but a slower start to the Atlantic season is possible with this.

https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/1096049726120697856
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Old 02-21-2019, 08:52 PM
 
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Yep...June 1rst
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-9e2605c3-e692-4a61-9f2c-c72b659f3231.jpeg

And if you can’t wait, East Pacific ‘season’ starts May 15th.
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Old 03-14-2019, 06:51 AM
 
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Meanwhile, Cyclone Idai is about to make landfall in Mozambique, not often one gets in the channel there. Surge will possibly be very high and near a populated area (Beira region) shape of the coast will channel water into landfall area. Torrential rains of a foot or more across a wide region will add to region already suffering from flooding. Humanitarian crisis unfolding.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1106155575107379200
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Old 03-16-2019, 07:28 AM
 
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Mid March 2019 update: All quiet.


Water temps ever so slowly rising for the season. Atlantic and East Pacific wind shear still high = no tropical systems can form in that. That will start to have gaps or relax in places as we head towards summer. Large plume of Saharan Desert dust came off recently and stretches all the way from Africa to northeast South America which also shuts any deep Atlantic tropical system activity down. Other than a quick stray weaker system, really don't expect any activity typically until May though.
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Old 03-24-2019, 04:13 PM
 
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24Mar19 - Invest 90Q in the South Atlantic off the East coast of Brazil became Tropical Storm Iba, looks to head off SouthEast into the Atlantic away from land. This is too far South of the equator to be a concern for those North of the equator so no worries Caribbean or US. This is considered a separate storm basin so it doesn’t share the Atlantic (North Atlantic) storm name list. Storms rarely ever form in the S Atlantic but have occurred breifly before:
2019 Hurricane Season (General Thread)-a1f34bd0-7c72-43b3-8687-2df358d355a0.png
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Old 03-24-2019, 04:20 PM
 
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Odd to see one that far south. Think there was one not long ago near the same area.
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