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Old 06-30-2019, 09:09 AM
 
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Sunday 30Jun19 11aEDT/8aPDT/5aHST: This weekend Invest 94E developed & has organized enough to quickly become Tropical Storm Barbara, the 2nd named storm of the 2019 East Pacific Hurricane season. On average, the 2nd named storm genesis date is June 25th.

Winds 40mph(65km/h), moving WNW 16mph(26km/h), pressure 1006mb. Heading away from land. Models suggest it may reach Cat2 or Cat3 status this week or so over the open waters. Hawaii will need to watch the week after the July 4th US Holiday to see if the storm nears the islands or not in some form, but this far out in time you can't really say much past that.

Official updates are released by the US National Hurricane Center every 6 hours at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/HST (2 & 8am/pmPDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Once the storm passes 140 degrees West Longitude then the US Central Pacific Hurricane Center would take over, again releasing updates every 6 hours at the same times mentioned above. *Note: they have merged their website with the main Atlantic & East Pacific site this year here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac

Pacific - Barbara forms June 30, 2019-barbara2.jpg

Pacific - Barbara forms June 30, 2019-barbara-sunrise.jpg

Pacific - Barbara forms June 30, 2019-bb.jpg
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Old 06-30-2019, 08:48 PM
 
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Sunday 30Jun19 11pEDT/8pPDT/5pHST: Winds 50mph(85km/h), moving W 22mph(35km/h), pressure 1000mb. Some wind shear is affecting the storm but that's about to subside (wind shear causes the storms clouds and central spinning core to not align nice and straight, think of it as the leaning tower of pisa from ocean surface up to cloud tops right now and as soon as it straightens when wind shear relaxes it'll be a very efficient machine and will strengthen more) and very warm waters lie in wait ahead (its main fuel source). Rapid intensification is likely shortly (RI is defined as increase in winds of 34.5mph or more in a 24hour period). Could reach Cat3 or Cat4 within 72 hours, thereafter it'll be right on the edge or pass over where colder waters further north are and looks to start weakening some but that depends on how strong it gets and where exactly it tracks this week.
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Old 07-01-2019, 08:55 AM
 
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Monday 1July19 11aEDT/8aPDT/5aHST: Estimated winds 70mph(110km/h), moving W 16mph(26km/h), pressure 991mb. No changes to above notes, Hurricane today, rapid intensification likely thereafter by Tuesday/Wednesday.
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Old 07-01-2019, 06:53 PM
 
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Monday 1July19 5pEDT/2pPDT/11aHST: Estimated winds 85mph(140km/h), moving W 16mph(26km/h), pressure 983mb. Cat1 hurricane now. Nice overall shape to the storm, great outflow across the NW/N side of storm. Should have an eye emerge soon as well. NHC is calling for a Cat3 Tuesday and Cat4 Wednesday followed by weakening trend thereafter.

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-01-2019 at 07:01 PM..
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Old 07-01-2019, 08:09 PM
 
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Mon 1July19 10pEDT: an eye is quickly forming this evening on infrared(IR) imagery. She’ll be gaining strength overnight.

Some imagery links:
Closeup mesoscale, updated every 60 seconds (note: the first several channels go black after sunset): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...t=12N&lon=120W

General East Pacific tropics region, updated every 10 minutes: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...G17&sector=tpw

Additional general region imagery, updated every 30 minutes: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/epac.html

Tropical Tidbits storm satellite imagery: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
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Old 07-02-2019, 04:31 AM
 
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Tuesday 2Jul19 5aEDT/2aPDT, Mon 1Jul19 11pHST: Estimated winds 110mph(175km/h), moving W 15mph(24km/h), pressure 969mb. Cat2 hurricane now, about to be Cat3, rapid intensification underway. NHC also predicts rapid weakening by this weekend.

*Note: With the 5-day cone now crossing 140W longitude (the dividing line between East Pacific and Central Pacific), all advisories on Barbara are issued in HST time zone, which is 6-hours difference from EDT and 3 from PDT. So an 11pmHST advisory is 5amEDT the next day, etc.

5-day cone map (M = Cat3+, H = Cat 1/2, S = Tropical Storm):
Pacific - Barbara forms June 30, 2019-df.jpg

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-02-2019 at 05:30 AM..
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Old 07-02-2019, 06:40 AM
 
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A special update was issued Tuesday 2Jul19 830aEDT/530aPDT/230aHST: Estimated winds 130mph(215km/h), moving WNW 15mph(24km/h), pressure 948mb. Cat4 hurricane now.
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Old 07-02-2019, 01:17 PM
 
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2Jul19 - Solar Eclipse & hurricane next to each other over the Pacific this afternoon!

This is also my last image upload as I’ve used all my allotted storage space on CD, but I’ll still be posting pics thru imgr or other to my post on CD.

Pacific - Barbara forms June 30, 2019-db2e235b-9bbc-4505-8e43-a1e48561bff7.jpeg
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Old 07-02-2019, 10:14 PM
 
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Tuesday 2Jul19 11pEDT/8pPDT/5pHST: Estimated winds 155mph(250km/h), moving WNW 14mph(22km/h), pressure 933mb. High end Cat4 Hurricane, technically 1mph more and its a Cat5. It may reach Cat5 overnight or later be upgraded during the off season by this winter when reviewed. Annular shape, a near perfect circle. NHC says it has another maybe 12hrs to strengthen/maintain then begins weakening, rapidly weakens by weeks end, may even dissipate by Sunday as conditions will be unfavorable.
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Old 07-03-2019, 04:46 AM
 
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Wed 3Jul19 5aEDT/2aPDT, Tue 2Jul19 11pHST: Estimated winds 155mph(250km/h), moving WNW 14mph(22km/h), pressure 933mb. Still high end Cat4 hurricane. Satellite presentation looks ever so slightly less pronounced than earlier, storm has likely peaked. NHC says microwave imagery shows concentric eye wall rings developing which is a sign of ERC (Eye-wall replacement cycle...larger storms must replace their inner eye-wall core every so often through a multi-hour process. During this the storm weakens some, then can continue strengthening once again or go back to previous intensity, or increase distance of strongest winds from the eye). But given its about to run out of warmer water it won't be able to complete in time so storm is likely to start weakening today, more rapid weakening by this weekend with several factors becoming unfavorable for tropical systems ahead. Storm may fall apart almost completely by the start of next week when what ever is left of it approaches Hawaii.

5-day cone map (M = Cat3+, H = Cat 1/2, S = Tropical Storm (winds 39-73mph), D = Tropical Depression (winds less than 39mph)):
Pacific - Barbara forms June 30, 2019-h5.jpg
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