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11Jul19 8pEDT/7pCDT:
Winds up slightly to 45mph, moving West 3mph, pressure 1001mb. Recon flights through the system are showing slightly stronger winds SE of the center and North of the center as well, along with lower pressure, so intensity was bumped up slightly. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
And aircraft recon finding stronger winds closer to the center, likely will bump up wind speed to 50mph or so at the 11pm advisory with that I imagine. See y’all tomorrow.
12Jul19 5aEDT/4aCDT:
Winds up slightly to 50mph, moving WNW 5mph, pressure 1000mb. Barry remains a disorganized asymmetrical blob overall, with dry air intrusion into its core/center and persistent wind shear that's keeping it from stacking up vertically nicely and growing. Still has multiple low level centers spinning around. It really wants to ,the low level circulations have a nice spin with it. But since shear and dry air are not letting up and landfall may be tonight or sometime Saturday it's running out of time to do much more. It's still expected to steadily intensify and still has a slight chance of reaching Cat1 Hurricane (winds 74+mph) before landfall. Don’t focus on the “center(s)”. Effects will be felt over a large region.
Biggest threat by far is potential for over a foot of rain, flooding, and storm surge. 10-20+ inches of rain are possible, isolated 25inches possible. 50mph is still enough to cause scattered power outages and downed trees.
Here are the current Watches/Warnings:
Warnings (expected to occur, rush preparations to completion now):
-Storm Surge Warning Intracoastal City, LA to Shell Beach, LA.
-Hurricane Warning Intracoastal City, LA to Grand Isle, LA.
-Tropical Storm Warning mouth of Pearl River (MS/LA border) to Grand Isle, LA, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, metro New Orleans, & Intracoastal City, LA to Cameron, LA.
Watches (possible, prepare in case):
-Storm Surge Watch Shell Beach, LA to MS/AL border & Lake Pontchartrain.
-Hurricane Watch mouth of Mississippi River to Grand Isle, LA.
-Hurricane Watch Intracoastal City, LA to Cameron, LA.
-Tropical Storm Watch LA/MS border to MS/AL border.
Fri 12July19 8aEDT/7aCDT: Winds remain 50mph, moving WNW 5mph...slow crawling storm, pressure down a tad to 998mb (Lower Pressure = strengthening, but slowly). Point a la Hache, LA reporting 38mph sustained winds (per NHC). Tropical Storm winds (39+mph) extend up to 175 miles from storm center, mainly east of it.
Here is link to monitor the Flood gauge of Mississippi River at New Orleans. The concern is the combination of two different events: the spring & early summer Midwest floods draining down to Gulf of Mexico & the persistent onshore winds driving surge up effectively blocking the Mississippi River from draining along with heavy rains trying to drain will likely raise the river a few more feet. Some of the lower levees in New Orleans are around 20ft high and forecast may have water around 19ft or so at peak this weekend. It’s going to be close. Listen to local officials & head all evacuation calls if told.
Changes from earlier info with this update:
-Expected to make landfall as a Cat1 Hurricane.
-Storm Surge Warning expanded to include Lake Pontchartrain as well as Eastward to Biloxi, MS.
Updated potential surge levels:
-Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
-Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
-Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
-Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
-Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
-Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft
OBS:
-Coastal flooding observed at high tide across several Gulf coast states earlier this AM, some roads/lanes were covered.
-NOAA station at SW Pass of Mississippi River (near Pilottown, LA): winds 54mph, gusting to 60mph (*note elevation 125feet next to open waters, so slightly lower winds at ground level).
Fri 12July2019 2pEDT/1pCDt: air recon showing winds starting to wrap up and around the Eastern side of Barry. So strongest winds now along the Northeast, East, Southeast, & South side of storm center & extend well out from the center (up to 175miles out). Much weaker winds N, W & SW sides currently. Storm is still steadily intensifying & starting to overcome the shear that’s been holding it back.
Winds 65mph, moving WNW 5mph, pressure 993mb. Steady pressure drop = steady strengthening will continue.
Obs:
-76mph sustained winds, gusting to 87mph offshore of SW Pass of Mississippi River on oil rig, elevation 300ft though & open waters so lower speed at ground level.
-55mph sustained winds, gusting to 66mph in SW Pass of Mississippi River (note: elevation 125ft up).
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