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Old 07-13-2019, 05:00 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,077 posts, read 56,513,895 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Not shown on maps or in forecast but it is actually buried in their discussion thread: “Although not explicitly shown in the forecast below, Barry is still expected to be a hurricane before it makes landfall later today.”

But doesn’t matter too much 65 vs 74mph. As soon as comes ashore winds will start to come down though.
Ahh, thanks. I haven't checked discussions lately. So a short lived Cat 1.


Just saw this right now


https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/sta...77375121301504
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Old 07-13-2019, 05:14 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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50,000 without power.

https://twitter.com/ABC7Alex/status/1149999038256812033
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Old 07-13-2019, 05:18 AM
 
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Sat 13Sat2019 5aEDT/4aCDT storm stats (next NHC update will be out within the hour though): Winds 65mph, moving WNW 5mph, pressure 993mb. So winds and pressure holding for now. I don't see any aircraft recon coming through to Tropical Tidbits site, some is coming thru HurricaneCity website. NHC reporting with storm coming closer to radar range velocity channel showing 70-77mph winds about 10,000-12,000 feet up. You really need the rain to help mix that down to the surface (Winds are less at the surface). Barry is a broad disorganized center so it's harder to pin point the exact 'landfall' time. The southern half of the storm and rain being pulled up around it's East and NE side are the main event.

NHC calls for Cat1 hurricane (Winds 74mph+) in a few hours by landfall and Tropical Depression(winds 39mph or less) in about 36hours so scattered tree/power issues for at least 36hours (winds of around 40mph start to cause scattered tree/power issues). If you look at your city on Weather.gov and if it shows winds or gust past 40mph then expect some scattered here and there tree/power issues and more widespread as winds increase.

Will look up some obs shortly.
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Old 07-13-2019, 06:12 AM
 
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Sat 13July2019 7aEDT/6aCDT obs (observations):
Wind *gust* (per weather channel unless noted otherwise):
-Eugene Island, LA 81mph
-Dulac, LA 64mph
-Port Fourchon, LA 62mph
-Houma, LA 59mph (NWS)
-Pascagoula, MS 52mph
-Boothville, LA 52mph
-New Orleans Airport 48mph
-near Franklin, LA 45mph (NWS)
-Lafayette, LA 29mph (NWS)

Power Outages: If winds above 40mph then expect scattered power outages this weekend. Large scale disaster means it may be some time before power can be restored. The larger the area out or if on same line as critical systems (hospitals, etc) then better chance of getting restored quicker. This website has become popular in tracking last few storms, supposedly combines different power companies together in one map, click on a state for county specifics: https://poweroutage.us/

Tidal surge:
**Keep in mind, winds circulate counter clockwise around storm center so winds may push water towards you or away from you at first and then switch around opposite direction after center passes and so surge can occur on the back side.**

(my interpretation of the gauges, *NOT official* & these may not be in the highest spots as wind will be pushing water to one side or the other, etc.)
-Waters rising Atchafalaya Bay (Amerada Pass approaching +4ft) & areas near Atchafalaya River running high.
-Caillou Bay about +2ft
-West side & East side of Grand Isle +3ft
-Hackberry Bay (North of Grand Isle) +4ft
-Barataria Bay (North of Grand Isle) +3.5ft
-Little Lake +2.5-3ft
-Just South of Empire +2-2.5ft
-Shell Beach was about +3.5ft

See more here: https://water.weather.gov/ahps/index.php


Surge values in LA from Weather Channel:
3.9ft Eugene Island
3.8ft Amerada Pass
3.0ft Lake Pontchartrain
2.1ft Pilottown
1.9ft Port Fourchan
And Weather Channel showing Atchafalaya River at the bridge in Morgan City, LA has reached the flood wall but holding as designed.

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-13-2019 at 06:56 AM..
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Old 07-13-2019, 06:15 AM
 
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Sat 13Sat2019 8aEDT/7aCDT storm stats: Winds 70mph, moving NW 5mph, pressure 991mb. Should officially make landfall within the next few hours. Once it does winds will start to drop with it but will be able to take tree / power lines down for the next probably 36hours. Hurricane hunters measuring hurricane force winds higher up in atmosphere along the South LA coast, but not mixing down to surface yet, really need rain to help bring that down and that's on the South side of storm mainly.
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Old 07-13-2019, 09:22 AM
 
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Sat 13Sat2019 11aEDT/10aCDT storm stats: Winds 75mph (Cat1 Hurricane!), moving NW 6mph, pressure 993mb. Hurricane force winds (74+mph extend up to 45miles to the East of center, Tropical Storm winds (39-73mph) extend up to 175miles from center. About 40mph is the threshold to start seeing scattered downed trees and power lines. Coning onshore its likely back to Tropical Storm status very soon. Rain & flooding is the main focus & that part of the storm is just beginning.

Changes:
-Hurricane Watch discontinued.
-Tropical Storm Warning issued from Cameron to Sabine Pass.
-Tropical Storm Watch for MS coast discontinued.

Obs:
Eugene Island, LA sustained 62mph winds, gusting to 82mph (NOAA)
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Old 07-13-2019, 10:13 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
...Winds 75mph (Cat1 Hurricane!),...
Per the 11aEDT/10aCDT NHC discussion the decision to raise to Cat1 hurricane from 70mph Tropical Storm was based on radar velocity estimate of 69-75mph, aircraft recon sampled 69-73mph, and notes strongest area may not have been sampled, so good argument for just reaching Cat1 hurricane. You could argue either side of it but they'll research with more available data during the off season this fall/winter to determine what it was. Either way rain/surge is the story.
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Old 07-13-2019, 10:14 AM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
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It's been gusty here this morning but only a bit of drizzle so far today. Projected path has now shifted to my west. Looks like conditions may deteriorate here later this evening.
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Old 07-13-2019, 10:44 AM
 
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Sat 13July2019 obs as of 12pEDT/11aCDT:
Power Outages via https://poweroutage.us/
LA: 81,000+
MS: 1,000+

Surge/River:
-Terrebonne Parish, LA 12 people were rescued by Coast Guard
-Plaquemines Parish, LA appears area near Phoenix, Myrtle Grove & Davant (Celeste Pump Station), flooding issues being reported, possible over topping of levees occurring, hard to get verified info on this area, but not hearing any reports of buildings inundated at this time. (EDIT: local news crew there showing water over topping levee at Myrtle Grove).
-Lafitte, LA tidal gauge looks to be about +3ft (my estimate, not official), some roads covered with water via social media.
-Hackberry Bay area +4ft or more (my estimate, not official)
-Atchafalaya River at Morgan City, LA rising over foot this AM, forecast another 1-2ft.
-Lake Pontchartrain North side surge 3+ft (my estimate, not official).

Damage:
-Sheet metal styled roof torn off motel Morgan City, LA

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-13-2019 at 10:55 AM..
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Old 07-13-2019, 11:50 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,077 posts, read 56,513,895 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ral31 View Post
It's been gusty here this morning but only a bit of drizzle so far today. Projected path has now shifted to my west. Looks like conditions may deteriorate here later this evening.
You're missing the winds and rain with this one. Are the clouds broken up and moving fast? Feeling tropical?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychoma View Post
Per the 11aEDT/10aCDT NHC discussion the decision to raise to Cat1 hurricane from 70mph Tropical Storm was based on radar velocity estimate of 69-75mph, aircraft recon sampled 69-73mph, and notes strongest area may not have been sampled, so good argument for just reaching Cat1 hurricane.
That's my beef. "aircraft". So not only they decided to make this a Cat 1 based on radar alone and not actual observation anywhere, but even if aircraft did find 74mph+ winds it would be up in the air, not the surface. Not gonna rant about that.


Current track.





Quick updated summary:


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


Quote:
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND WEAKENS
TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 92.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NE OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher
gusts, and these winds are located over water to the southeast of
the center. Weakening is expected as Barry moves farther inland,
and it is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. The National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph and a
wind gust of 72 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
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