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Old 07-27-2019, 05:47 PM
 
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Saturday 27July2019 5pEDT/2pPDT/11aHST: Tropical Depression 6E (TD6E) has organized enough to become Tropical Storm Erick, the 5th named storm of the 2019 East Pacific Hurricane season. On average, the 5th named storm genesis date is July 22nd.

Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving West 18mph(30km/h), pressure 1006mb. Located about 1,280miles(2,060km) SW of S tip of Baja and about 2,055miles(3,305km) E of Hilo, HI. Heading out towards the Central Pacific.

Hawaii will want to monitor this system as some form of it may near Hawaii towards the end of this coming week. NHC forecast currently has it reaching hurricane status by early in the week, then weaker as nears Hawaii. Subject to change. Plenty of time to watch still.

Official updates are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 6 hours at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/HST (2 & 8am/pmPDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
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Old 07-28-2019, 12:26 PM
 
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Sunday 28July2019 11aEDT/8aPDT/5aHST: Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving West 17mph(28km/h), pressure 1005mb. Located about 1,755miles(2,820km) ESE of Hilo, HI.

Since those stats were posted by NHC, satellite presentation has really improved. Likely strong Tropical Storm by later today if that keeps up.

The NHC's last update has it reaching 100mph Cat2 hurricane by Wednesday then weakening fairly quickly thereafter as it possibly nears Hawaii as a weaker Tropical Storm late this week. Details to be determined still. Only guarantee at this point is higher wave action is more likely on East / South facing beaches likely. See local NWS for specifics.
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Old 07-28-2019, 09:23 PM
 
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Sunday 28July2019 11pEDT8pPDT/5pHST: Estimated winds 65mph(100km/h), moving West 16mph(26km/h), pressure 998mb. Located about 1,560miles(2,515km) ESE of Hilo, HI.

Rapid intensification may be occurring. NHC now forecasting Cat3 hurricane sometime Tuesday. NHC cone map and outlook shows weakening Tropical Storm center/eye passing South of Hawaii around Friday though as conditions don't look to be favorable by then. Still uncertainty in what Hawaii may see out of this. Waves for sure, rain possible, wind depends on final size and track.
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Old 07-29-2019, 10:34 AM
 
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Monday 29July2019 11aEDT/8aPDT/5aHST: Estimated winds 70mph(110km/h), moving West 17mph(28km/h), pressure 991mb. Located about 1,310miles(2,110km) ESE of Hilo, HI. Strong Tropical Storm, almost Cat1 hurricane. NHC calling for Cat3 hurricane by Wednesday. But strong wind shear expected to weaken it as it passes South of Hawaii. Probability maps indicate there is a possibility of Tropical Storm force winds (39mph+) into Big Island and Maui starting late Thursday. Wind speed probabilities for those areas from the NHC currently are: Hurricane (74+mph): 0%, Stronger Tropical Storm of 58+mph: near 0%, and between 39-58mph: 5-10+%. These are subject to change this far out in time and can be seen here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...nd120#contents Overall indications and forecast track is that storm will pass South of Hawaii as it's weakening in the form of a Tropical Storm or so late Thursday through Saturday.

Be sure to check the other storm thread, Flossie, as that may pose a bigger risk following Erick.
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Old 07-29-2019, 09:48 PM
 
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Monday 29July2019 11pEDT/8pPDT/5pHST:

Quick summary: Cat1 Hurricane, maybe Cat3 Wednesday, rapid weakening thereafter, likely passes safely South of Hawaii end of this week but close enough for maybe rain and a breeze, hurricane hunter aircraft en route.

Estimated winds 75mph(120km/h), moving West 18mph(30km/h), pressure 990mb. Located about 1,110miles(1,790km) ESE of Hilo, HI. Cat1 hurricane now. Estimated hurricane force winds (74+mph) extend up to 15miles(30km) from storm center & Tropical Storm force winds (39-73mph) extend up to 70miles(110km). So when looking at a 'cone map' remember the cone size is just the average error spread in track that far out in time, and effects can be felt well outside of that cone, it's just where the center could be in time.

NHC says Erick has until late Wednesday to strengthen and may obtain Cat3 major hurricane status at some point Wednesday. Then weakening trend expected to begin with high wind shear (bad for hurricanes) expected to start weakening the storm, and may do so rapidly...NHC's current forecast is just 40mph system by Sunday.

Updated probability guidance from NHC shows Tropical Storm force winds (39+mph) are possible on the Big Island by Thursday (track and strength dependent). The rest of Hawaii is pretty much outside of that as the storm is expected to mainly track South of Hawaii. Evening NHC probabilities for Big Island: Hurricane winds (74+mph): 0%, 58mph+: 0%, 39mph+: 5-10+%. There shouldn't be any sudden changes to this unless tracks on North side of guidance (which would bring any winds closer to HI) or if Hurricane Hunters recon aircraft find something surprising. Storm should make it's closest approach to Hawaii between late Thursday and early Saturday this week. With wind shear expected to be weakening the system it's possible it's rain shield gets pushed up over portions of Hawaii depending on direction.

US Air Force launched four C130J aircraft today from Keesler Air Force Base (Biloxi, MS), heading for Hawaii. Three main Hurricane Hunter weather crews and a fourth support crew. The three WC-130J's will fly missions into and around Erick and Flossie in order to provide real-time weather info from the storms and surrounding region in order to provide more accurate data to forecasters and the weather models. Flights into the storms are scheduled to begin this Wednesday. The Pacific is a huge data void so in storm reconnaissance is an invaluable tool.

Looking at models:
-Euro keeps it South of HI. It's 50 ensemble models also mostly hold a steady WNW track keeping storm S of Hawaii. Only a few members deviate it further S or N of the main group, so confidence higher it will keep heading that way and pass on by to the S of Hawaii.
-GFS, UKMET, Canadian models also track Erick S of Hawaii.
-Majority of models have Erick weakening as nears HI.
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Old 07-30-2019, 05:31 AM
 
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Tuesday 30July2019 5aEDT/2pPDT; 11pHST Mon 29July: Estimated winds 80mph(130km/h), moving West 17mph(28km/h), pressure 988mb. Located about 1,015miles(1,635km) ESE of Hilo, HI; about 1,225miles(1,970km) ESE of Honolulu, HI. An eye is now visible on satellite.
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Old 07-30-2019, 10:10 AM
 
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Tuesday 30July2019 11aEDT/8aPDT/5aHST: Estimated winds 115mph(185km/h), moving West 17mph(28km/h), pressure 966mb. Located about 920miles(1,485km) ESE of Hilo, HI; about 1,135miles(1,825km) ESE of Honolulu, HI. Cat3 hurricane now. But since the NHC 11amEDT update (12pmEDT as of this writing) the storm has continued to rapidly organize and likely is higher...maybe pushing Cat4 or so in my opinion.

The outlook from the NHC remains unchanged...window to continue strengthening through Wednesday, then by later Wednesday into Thursday weakening trend should begin, followed by increase in high wind shear and rapid weakening. NHC wind probability maps show low 5% to near 20% chance of Tropical Storm winds of 39+mph but less than 58mph, possibly reaching Big Island late Thursday or Friday but this will also depend on final track, strength, and structure of the storm (high wind shear can blow storms away from storm center). Given Watches/Warnings are time based issued, it wouldn't be surprising to see a Tropical Storm Watch be issued for portions of Big Island or so within the next 24hours, but no watches/warnings currently exist.

A reminder that official storm stats are issued from the US NHC every 6 hours at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/HST (2 & 8am/pmPDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

If Watches/Warnings are issued then they'll also add updates every 3 hours (in between times above).

Newer satellite GoesWest (GOES17): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...G17&sector=tpw

Satellite floater over Erick: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/flo...E_floater.html

General regional satellite imagery: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/tpac.html
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Old 07-30-2019, 02:02 PM
 
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Just mentioning satellite presentation, though still a strong hurricane, doesn’t look as impressive as earlier now. It’ll be interesting what the peak intensity is declared as in the offseason when they go back over storm data for final reports. No air recon data available until tomorrow though.
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Old 07-30-2019, 03:53 PM
 
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Tuesday 30July2019 5pEDT/2pPDT/11aHST: Estimated winds 130mph(215km/h), moving West 15mph(24km/h), pressure 952mb. Located about 840miles(1,350km) ESE of Hilo, HI; about 1,050miles(1,695km) ESE of Honolulu, HI.

Good, they updated the winds to 130 which is Cat4 hurricane for this advisory. It did indeed keep rapidly intensifying after their last 11amEDT/5aHST advisory. Hurricane force winds (74+mph) extend up to 25miles(35km) from storm center, Tropical Storm force winds (39-73mph) up to 105miles(165km) so a very tight core which is expected in a stronger Hurricane. Rapid weakening is anticipated to start within about 36hours though.

NHC wind probability maps for this update show winds of between 39 and 57mph for Big Island of 5-20% chance, and 5% chance for Maui & Kahoolawe. Most models show a weak Tropical Storm in the vicinity, likely South of Hawaii, undergoing a lot of wind shear tearing it apart.

High surf will likely impact Hawaii this week into first part of the weekend. The Euro model, which takes the storm further South than other models but the one the NHC is leaning towards at the moment, has larger surf reaching South East Big Island sometime overnight Wednesday, peaking maybe Thursday afternoon/evening local time (subject to change, just saying what I see in the model). See local NWS or beach forecast for wave heights/timing. (FYI: Flossie may bring large waves as well early next week).

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-30-2019 at 04:10 PM..
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Old 07-30-2019, 08:26 PM
 
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That was apparently a 58mph increase in estimated wind speed in a span of just 18hours:

"Today, #Hurricane #Erick rapidly intensified from 65kt-->115kt in 18 hours, a change of 50 knots!

RI occured as convection axis-symmetrized around a small inner core. Fortunately out in the open waters of the CPAC. Should pass south of #Hawaii in 3 days as a weaker storm."

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1156382385102999552
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