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Old 08-02-2019, 09:03 PM
 
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Fri 2Aug2019 11pEDT/8pPDT/5pHST: Estimated winds 60mph(95km/h), moving WNW 17mph(28km/h), pressure 996mb. Steadily weakening Tropical Storm. Core is misaligned with convection riding ahead of it's storms on satellite. Not a healthy thing to endure. Most models turn the storm North as it gets close to Hawaii. NHC wind probability maps show near 0% chance of Tropical Storm force winds now, making it's closest approach around Monday. Wind shear will likely blow most convection away from Hawaii but all that depends on final track and what shape/form the storm is when closer. Still a chance it tracks closer to the islands but NHC forecast a Tropical Depression by Monday afternoon (winds of 38mph or less).
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Old 08-03-2019, 08:55 PM
 
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Sat 3Aug2019 11pEDT/8pPDT/5pHST: Estimated winds 45mph(75km/h), moving W 13mph(20km/h), pressure 1005mb. Located about 620miles(1,000km) E of Hilo, HI. Tropical Storm force winds (39+mph) extend up to 90miles(150km) from center. The storm is under high wind shear so most of it's convection/rain is off to it's East / NE. Expected to just graze Hawaii along the Northeast or stay just NE of the islands.
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Old 08-04-2019, 04:07 PM
 
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Sun 4Aug2019 5pEDT/2pPDT/11aHST: Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), moving W 12mph(19km/h), pressure 1007mb. Located about 435miles(695km) E of Hilo, HI. Tropical Storm force winds (39+mph) extend up to 90miles(150km) from center. On visible satellite there's a nice swirl of clouds but nothing with it. All the convection is being pushed East / Northeast of the storm center. So center completely exposed. This naked swirl of clouds likely will spin over the islands of Hawaii and some rain will follow. See here, https://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_pacific , for local Hawaii poss rain totals and other info or at www.weather.gov.
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Old 08-05-2019, 07:43 PM
 
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Mon 5Aug2019 5pEDT/2pPDT/11aHST: Estimated winds 35mph(55km/h), moving WNW 12mph(19km/h), pressure 1009mb. Tropical Depression (winds less than 39mph). Located about 105miles(165km) ENE of Hilo, HI. The main low level swirl of clouds of Flossie are starting to move over the Hawaiian Islands now with some scattered showers. Most of the convection(storms) are Northeast of that swirl, blown off by wind shear.
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