U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 07-29-2019, 10:48 AM
 
4,343 posts, read 2,201,663 times
Reputation: 1591

Advertisements

Monday 29July2019 11aEDT/8aPDT/5aHST: Tropical Depression 7E (TD7E) organized enough overnight to become Tropical Storm Flossie, the 6th named storm of the 2019 East Pacific Hurricane season. If you're on Hawaii time then technically it was upgraded at 11pHST on the 28th but since its located in E Pacific basin currently that time zone was the 29th of July so I'll label title of thread as such. On average, the 6th named storm genesis date is July 30th.

Estimated winds 50mph(85km/h), moving West 18mph(30km/h), pressure 1002mb. Located about 820miles(1,315km) WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico or 780miles(1,260km) SSW of S tip of Baja. Heading out towards the Central Pacific.

Hawaii will want to monitor this system as it may ride a little more northward then Erick is forecast to and Flossie may threaten the islands at some point next week. Plenty of time to watch at the moment. NHC currently forecast the system to become a hurricane by Tuesday and continue to intensify. NHC notes that Rapid Intensification is possible over the next 48hours but then says wind shear is expected to increase thereafter keeping intensification more in check. For now it's in the middle of no where and plenty of time to watch what/where it goes.

Official updates are released by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) every 6 hours at 5 & 11am/pmEDT/HST (2 & 8am/pmPDT) here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 07-29-2019, 10:07 PM
 
4,343 posts, read 2,201,663 times
Reputation: 1591
Monday 29July2019 11pEDT/8pPDT/5pHST:

Quick summary: Hurricane soon, maybe Cat3 this week, following similar path to Erick but Flossie is further North, hurricane hunter aircraft en route, too early to speculate on potential effects on Hawaii.

Estimated winds 65mph(100km/h), moving West 17mph(28km/h), pressure 1001mb. Located about 895miles(1,445km) SW of S tip of Baja. Strong Tropical Storm. Estimated Tropical Storm force winds (39-73mph) extend up to 80miles(130km) out from storm center.

NHC says Flossie likely hurricane Tuesday. Currently it's fighting some lite wind shear and nearby dry air, which if it can keep it at bay could rapidly intensify. Regardless NHC currently calling for Cat3 hurricane by late this week. Thereafter steady weakening trend may occur as Flossie will be riding a little too far North where water temps are border line supportive of hurricanes (water temps are a main ingredient).

Still too early to say what effect, if any, on Hawaii this far out in time. But earlier models were tracking Flossie North of Hawaii but have shifted more South today with several models bringing the storm in some form over or near Hawaii. But similar to Erick the models suggest a weakening storm as it makes closest approach. I'd wait until later this week when air recon samples storm and surrounding area before looking at possible paths much this far out in time.

US Air Force launched four C130J aircraft today from Keesler Air Force Base (Biloxi, MS), heading for Hawaii. Three main Hurricane Hunter weather crews and a fourth support crew. The three WC-130J's will fly missions into and around Erick and Flossie in order to provide real-time weather info from the storms and surrounding region in order to provide more accurate data to forecasters and the weather models. Flights into the storms are scheduled to begin this Wednesday. The Pacific is a huge data void so in storm reconnaissance is an invaluable tool.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-30-2019, 05:29 AM
 
4,343 posts, read 2,201,663 times
Reputation: 1591
Tuesday 30July2019 5aEDT/2pPDT; 11pHST Mon 29July: estimated winds 65mph(100km/h), moving West 16mph(26km/h), pressure 1001mb.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-30-2019, 10:20 AM
 
4,343 posts, read 2,201,663 times
Reputation: 1591
Tuesday 30July2019 11aEDT/8aPDT/5aHST: estimated winds 70mph(110km/h), moving West 15mph(24km/h), pressure 999mb. Hurricane likely soon. NHC says has about 48hours to continue strengthening then wind shear kicks in and inhibits further development. NHC also mentions GFS and Euro models now decrease that shear in a few days though and intensity forecast models are wide spread (= low confidence).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-30-2019, 04:01 PM
 
4,343 posts, read 2,201,663 times
Reputation: 1591
Tuesday 30July2019 5pEDT/8pPDT/11aHST: estimated winds 75mph(120km/h), moving West 14mph(22km/h), pressure 995mb. Cat1 hurricane now. NHC says has another day or so to strengthen then gradual cooler waters and slowly increasing wind shear should limit development and a slow weakening trend may begin. Several models have Flossie approaching Hawaii from the East towards Monday, but mostly as a weakening system if it can survive that close to Hawaii.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-31-2019, 10:17 AM
 
4,343 posts, read 2,201,663 times
Reputation: 1591
Wed 31July2019 11aEDT/8aPDT/5aHST: estimated winds 75mph(120km/h), moving WNW 15mph(24km/h), pressure 991mb. Wind shear has taken a toll on Flossie overnight with it's center ending up NW of it's convection/storms. NHC now has storm weakening to a Tropical Storm today, then models say shear may lessen allowing it to bounce back to some degree Friday and Saturday possibly, then weakening trend begins again. NHC has Flossie nearing Hawaii from the East on Monday or so as a weakening Tropical Storm. Details to be determined still but waves and rain a good bet for now, some wind chances are there too.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-31-2019, 07:51 PM
 
4,343 posts, read 2,201,663 times
Reputation: 1591
Wed 31July2019 5pEDT/2pPDT/11aHST: estimated winds 70mph(110km/h), moving W 16mph(26km/h), pressure 995mb. Weakened to a Tropical Storm. Since this earlier advisory the storm has started to re-fire up convection once more so it'll try to come back to some degree soon. On the forecast track Flossie may approach Hawaii from the East on Monday, likely as a weakening Tropical Storm but all depends on what it does late this week. Tropical Storm force winds (39+mph) may start affecting Hawaii by Sunday evening (Again track, strength, shape, etc. dependent).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-31-2019, 09:01 PM
 
4,343 posts, read 2,201,663 times
Reputation: 1591
Wed 31July2019 11pEDT/8pPDT/5pHST: estimated winds 65mph(100km/h), moving W 16mph(26km/h), pressure 998mb.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-01-2019, 05:24 AM
 
4,343 posts, read 2,201,663 times
Reputation: 1591
Thurs 1Aug2019 5aEDT/2aPDT; 11pHST Wed 31July: estimated winds 65mph(100km/h), moving WNW 16mph(26km/h), pressure 996mb. Shear still keeping storm from organizing properly. NHC now says storm not likely to restrengthen. Continued shear and slowly decreasing water temps the main culprits. Wind shear expected to increase as nears Hawaii as well as water temps drop which should induce steady to more rapid weakening on approach to Hawaii. Threats for Hawaii from Flossie still include waves, heavy scattered rain potential, Tropical Storm force winds potential.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-02-2019, 04:24 AM
 
4,343 posts, read 2,201,663 times
Reputation: 1591
Fri 2Aug2019 5aEDT/2aPDT; 11pHST Thurs 1Aug: estimated winds 70mph(110km/h), moving WNW 18mph(30km/h), pressure 993mb. Located about 1,240miles(2,000km) E of Hilo, HI. Tropical Storm winds extend outward up to 140miles(220km) from storm center. NHC says storm has about 12hours of steady strength then wind shear increases and weakening trend begins and likely to be a weaker Tropical Storm or Tropical Depression when nears Hawaii late Sunday into Monday. Several models re curve the storm just before reaching Hawaii now but some bring it closer. Either way mainly a rain/wave maker it appears for now.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather > Hurricanes
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top