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11am Update: Pressure dropped (strengthening). Moving NW at 13mph.
Quote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019
...DORIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 67.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
The minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
NHC has it a Major Hurricane from 8am Friday all the way to Monday.
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019
The small eye of Dorian has appeared intermittently in infrared satellite imagery this morning. Recent reports from a NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that there is now a double eyewall structure,
with a small inner eye only 5 n mi in diameter and a larger 25-n mi
diameter outer eyewall. The minimum pressure has fallen to
around 986 mb. The concentric eyewall structure is likely why the
aircraft has not found any stronger winds yet in the storm, despite
the decrease in central pressure. The initial intensity remains 75
kt for this advisory.
Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Dorian is moving
northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt. Dorian is forecast to
continue moving northwestward during the next 24-36 hours between an
upper-level low that will be dropping southwestward across the
Florida Straits and a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the
hurricane. After that time, a ridge is forecast to build to the north of Dorian, which should cause the track to bend back toward the west-northwest. The track guidance becomes more divergent beyond
72 hours, primarily due to model differences in the strength of the
ridge and whether a weakness develops in the ridge late in the
period. The new NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the
previous advisory, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus.
It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected
consensus models remain south of the official forecast. The spread
of the deterministic models and the various ensemble guidance is
still considerable at days 4 and 5, and it is too soon to specify
where along the Florida east coast the greatest impacts could
occur.
Environmental conditions consisting of warm waters and low vertical
wind shear along the path of the hurricane should allow for at least
steady intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. With the small
inner core and favorable conditions, rapid strengthening also
remains a possibility, although not likely in the very short term
given the concentric eyewall structure. The updated NHC intensity forecast calls for Dorian to become a major hurricane on Friday, and shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous forecast.
The official forecast is at the upper end of the guidance, in best
agreement with the HCCA and HWRF models.
It's emotionally exhausting. Whenever a hurricane is expected to make landfall, everything suddenly turns into chaos. An aura of anxiety prevails, there's this guessing games about where the storm will go or if it will even go where it's predicted, which in many cases, they don't. Often you don't know what happens until the day before and by then it's too late. No body knows what will happen and when.
In the olden days, before radars, people read barometers to keep track if a storm was coming. If the barometer suddenly started dropping, that usually meant a hurricane was on the way. Of course FL had far fewer people then.
TWC is forecasting Dorian to reach category four status before it makes landfall. I have a cousin in Melbourne. Hopefully their preparations are well under way!
It's emotionally exhausting. Whenever a hurricane is expected to make landfall, everything suddenly turns into chaos. An aura of anxiety prevails, there's this guessing games about where the storm will go or if it will even go where it's predicted, which in many cases, they don't. Often you don't know what happens until the day before and by then it's too late. No body knows what will happen and when.
In the olden days, before radars, people read barometers to keep track if a storm was coming. If the barometer suddenly started dropping, that usually meant a hurricane was on the way. Of course FL had far fewer people then.
I hear ya on all accounts. That anxiety is worse the actual happening of a storm sometimes. I know. Sometimes you need to step back from the radio or tv or social media and just prepare for the worst and be lucky if nothing happens.
Of course its nice to have constant info and updates nowadays to help you know the timing of things but if you're ready or in a safer area that can withstand the worst of things, chill out on the news media for a while.
BTW - That's why there were more lives lost in the past, never had time to prepare or evacuate. Now you have days but comes with anxiety.
Ya we’re getting spoiled these days...satellite imagery every 60seconds ( https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...at=22N&lon=68W ), multi channel radars, even drones flying into hurricanes! Still a lot of science to be learned to get better at predicting them, and it is a little better each year, but a ways to go.
FYI........... GFS has shifted south. THAT is the trend you need to watch for. Understanding how to read the models is crucial.
Overnight GFS showed this was the landfall.
Now........... this.... So it's agreeing with most other models. While one may say GFS isn't consistent with itself I see it as it now has a solution that has been consistent with the better models. GFS usually plays catch up.
Hi everybody! So, I know nothing about hurricanes, except the categories, but I'd like to know if we will be feeling very strong winds in the Miami-Homestead area? Will it affect us very bad? I am very nervous about this storm. Thanks.
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