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I’m not exactly sure which islands were involved, but I know they were going to begin and end the trip in Nassau and it looks like Nassau is right smack in the middle of the cone. I have no idea what their cancellation policy or policies are like. I suppose I’ll hear about it soon though.
Tue 27Aug2019 5aEDT/AST,4aCDT: Holding steady with dry air intrusion: Winds 50mph(85km/h), moving WNW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 1005mb. Located about 30miles(45km) SE St. Lucia. Tropical Storm force winds go out up to 45miles(75km) from storm center.
NHC lowered guidance from Cat1 to 70mph TS when nears PR/DR Wed/Thurs, still weakens storm with some land interaction, and has 70mph TS near Bahamas/FL thereafter saying currently keeping winds "near the middle of the guidance envelope" then with uncertainty due to questions on how much mountains of Hispaniola affect storm.
Hurricane Watch for Puerto Rico & portions of Dominican Republic (Isla Saona to Samana), Tropical Storm Watch DR (Isla Saona to Punta Palenque & Samana to Puerto Plata), Tropical Storm Warning Puerto Rico. Rains PR to DR of 2-4inches, isolated 6in possible.
Mid Tue morning - impressive outflow transverse banding (think car exhaust pipe) from NW - West and SW sides setting up this AM. Helps storm breathe more. Recon not finding any changes internally though. https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/sta...44537108811776
Tue 11aEDT/AST: no changes by NHC in current storm status. Holding 50mph winds. But radar and recon suggesting a new storm center may be trying to form NW of current center (this happens in weaker systems from time to time). https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166358552136552448
Damn it. Both GFS and Euro are trending north. Yesterday it was over south Florida, today it is over central Florida. Stay south! I do not want this to become a repeat of the 1893 sea islands hurricane.
Damn it. Both GFS and Euro are trending north. Yesterday it was over south Florida, today it is over central Florida. Stay south! I do not want this to become a repeat of the 1893 sea islands hurricane.
I want it to go north out to the Atlantic and die there! I'm in the Fort Myers area. We had an almost a direct hit from Irma 2 years ago. I never want to go through that again this soon.
Tue 5pEDT/AST,4pCDT: Winds held at 50mph. It’s trying but dry air keeps getting in between bursts of convection, like having a bad spark plug in a car at the moment. Track shifted North to match earlier center jump but otherwise same. Likely to pass directly over Puerto Rico or near W edge instead of over Hispaniola Wed/Thurs. Mountains of PR likely will weaken storm some though. Then enters more favorable environment for strengthening. NHC has it along US coast by Sunday afternoon. NHC says intensity still high uncertainty. Guidance suggest TS to a Cat2 currently (highly subject to change this far out), NHC cone map keeps it in between for now. Cone map says, based on average track error over time, that all of FL and half of GA at risk for landfall still, subject to final track of coarse. https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/sta...57851398610944
I want it to go north out to the Atlantic and die there! I'm in the Fort Myers area. We had an almost a direct hit from Irma 2 years ago. I never want to go through that again this soon.
I will take it all day long. You won't have to worry about this sad system.
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