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Good look at the NHC forecast over past few days. Note the shift in the center keeps going north. Anyone from Ft Lauderdale to Myrtle Beach is still in play for a landfall.
Latest GFS just out with Central / N FL landfall (shown below). Morning Euro has central / S FL. HWRF central FL. Rapid intensification will also be possible, NHC’s Cat3 is with slow steady strengthening mind you. Plenty of time for changes and no GA or Carolina’s aren’t off the hook yet.
Keep in mind...and subject to change timing still...Tropical Storm force winds (39+mph) could reach FL coast late Saturday or sometime Sunday. That’s the time period you need to already have left or hunkered down by...winds around 40mph is when you start seeing scattered downed trees/power lines begin. That means with high populations along coastal SE US and a holiday weekend that emergency Management will have to make evacuation calls starting sometime Thursday or Friday. If if goes into FL, the counter clockwise onshore flow of winds will likely push tides higher into Jacksonville area as well as very low lying coastal regions of GA and SC this weekend / early next week. Still time for changes though.
Wed 28Aug 2pEDT/AST - winds 75mph - now a Cat1 Hurricane.
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